Author: Ray Takeyh / Political Geography: Arabia

Author:: Ray Takeyh and Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Iran is facing its most acute crisis since the 1979 revolution. Over the past six years, political institutions have played a key role in opening the path to reform. Yet, the success of President Muhammad Khatami's efforts to involve the Iranian people in electoral processes and political institutions has led to a conservative backlash. A coalition of hardliners has been successfully implementing a strategy for retaining power, namely, fostering popular apathy by controlling public discourse, imprisoning reformers, and negating the deliberations of elected institutions. This strategy reached its apex during local and council elections in February in which only 30 percent of eligible voters went to the polls.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Tehran, and Arabia

Author:: Ray Takeyh and Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Near the end of the Clinton administration, some analysts expressed a degree of hope that Iran's reform movement would inject some measure of pragmatism into Iranian foreign policy. That hope seems to have faded. The Bush administration has established terrorism and proliferation — two areas in which Iran has been particularly active — as top-priority issues, while the previous administration predicated its policy on certain developments within Iran. The parameters for evaluating Iranian foreign policy and U.S.-Iran relations have changed, particularly on the issue of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

Author:: Ray Takeyh
Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On January 29, President George W. Bush caused considerable consternation among foreign policy analysts by referring to an "axis of evil" in his State of the Union address. The analysts worried that the president's castigation of Iran would embolden hardliners who routinely exploit external threats as a means of deflecting attention from their sagging political fortunes. The concern was that, in addition to hurting Iran's reform movement, the president's speech would lead to a more aggressive Iranian foreign policy, ending the modest gains toward U.S.-Iranian rapprochement that were achieved in the last years of the Clinton administration.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

Author:: Ray Takeyh
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In his January 29 State of the Union address, President George Bush criticized Iran as one of three states (the other two being Iraq and North Korea) forming an 'axis of evil' and castigated its "unelected leaders" for denying the will of the majority. Indeed, the perennial conflict between Tehran's political factions seems to have escalated, deepening the stalemate that has essentially paralyzed its governing system. The durability of the Islamic Republic has always stemmed from its flexibility and capacity to absorb change. Since the election of Muhammad Khatami in 1997, however, the popular demand for change is outstripping the system's accommodative capabilities. The youths' demands for employment and cultural freedom, the middle class's quest for representation, and the women's clamor for social emancipation are creating tensions and pressures that threaten the foundations of the Islamic Republic.
Topic:: Security, Islam, and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, North Korea, and Arabia

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