Author: Rashad Hasanov / Publication Year: within 10 Years

Author:: Rashad Hasanov
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:: The existence of a well-functioning business environment is a key factor in the diversification of the economy, the efficient use of available resources and ensuring sustainable growth. The business environment, in its turn, should be regarded as a composite of conditions that incorporate quite complex components. If one or more of the composition components are not functioning appropriately, the result you will get is not adequate to the available capacity. The existence of contemporary institutions is the absolute requirement for a "good business environment", performing functions such as coordinating all other economic advantages, organizing appropriate arrangements, and risk management.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

Author:: Rashad Hasanov
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:: Following the recession and stagnation of the economy of Azerbaijan in 2015-2017, a growth of 1.4% was recorded in 2018. Economic growth has been mainly driven by the following factors. Favorable foreign economic environment for Azerbaijan from the context of oil prices: the initial forecast of the oil prices by the Azerbaijani government at the beginning of 2018 was 45 US dollars per barrel. Then, during the second half of the year, the forecast was adjusted to 55 US dollars per barrel. However, the actual price of one barrel of oil for the reporting period was above 71 US dollars (29% higher than forecasted)…
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

Author:: Rashad Hasanov
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:: From the second half of 2014, Azerbaijani public debt increased considerably along with several new challenges facing the domestic economy. During this period, the ratio of foreign debt to GDP rose from 8.6% (01.01.2015) to 22.8% (01.06.2018). The increase was 3.4 billion US dollars in nominal terms. At the beginning of 2018, Azerbaijan’s public debt amounted to 10 billion 100 million US dollars, while the value of loans taken with state guarantees reached 12 billion 682 million US dollars, raising the ratio of debt to GDP to 55%. The increase in the debt burden, particularly external debt liabilities, has caused concern both in the local community and in the government. Specifically, the deterioration of the financial situation of publicly-funded state institutions has raised the likelihood that the debt burden on this category will turn into a fiscal burden. As a result, the “Medium and long-term strategy for public debt management in the Republic of Azerbaijan” was approved on 24.08.2018
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

Author:: Rashad Hasanov
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:: The implementation of fixed exchange rate regime for 20 years (1994-2014) resulted in a formation of an insecure currency position for all interest groups, including the government and business. Although the pressures on manat have commenced to increase since the second half of 2014, the Central Bank and the government failed in comprehending the process. That is why, promising statements have been made to the general public. But the following events proved the underlying problem more severe and the implemented monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies ineffective in the long-term. Business, citizens, as well as state-owned enterprises faced serious financial losses. The country experienced serious threats with regard to its financial sustainability.
Topic:: International Political Economy, Monetary Policy, and Finance
Political Geography:: Azerbaijan

Author:: Rashad Hasanov
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:: Without a doubt, 2016 is considered as one of the painful years for the economy of the country. That is to say, the economy of the country encountered nearly 4.0 % decline [during January-November 2016 GDP fell by 3.9% compared with the previous year, SSCRA1], the depreciation of national currency continued, as a result, manat lost its value by 12.5% during the year. The depreciation of national currency reached 57% from January, 2015 until December, 2016. Inflation rate increased to 12.1%, hitting a two-digit level first time since 2008 and consequently, real income of population shrank by 3.2%. The tight monetary and credit policies of the government led to weakening economic activity, lending level fell to the minimum, 11 banks were closed (one of them being systematically important). The state budget revenues and expenditures executed with respectively 16.1% and 10% decrease in 2016, compared with the January-November, 2015.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, and Finance
Political Geography:: Azerbaijan

Author:: Rashad Hasanov
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:: In August, the exchange rate of national currency of Azerbaijan-“Manat” beat all historical records. That is to say, the exchange rate was 1 USD= 1.61 Manat in previous month . It should be noted that, the exchange rate hit 1 USD= 1.6 Manat in March, 2016. Since the second half of 2014, due to the fall of oil prices in the world markets there is a visible pressure on the national currency ‘Manat’. Overall, the Azerbaijani “Manat” lost 49.6% of its value in 2015 and in addition, a depreciation of more than 3% in the first 8 months of 2016, the losses could reach 52.2%. Although the occurring rapid dollarization and the observed stagnation in the business environment especially in imports in the first months of 2015 and 2016 resulted in short-term reduction in foreign exchange demand in the March-May period of this year and strengthening the exchange rate of USD/Manat at the level of 1.49, the process of depreciation proceeded again afterwards.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, and Finance
Political Geography:: Azerbaijan

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