Author: Patrick Clawson / Topic: Security

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Today's decision by Iranian president Mohammad Khatami to run for re-election was more important than the actual election on June 8, which he is sure to win. But neither matters nearly as much as the crucial question for Iran's future — namely, will hardliners let the formal government rule or will they continue their crackdown through the revolutionary institutions they control? The answer will be key for U.S. policy options towards Iran.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: While President Bill Clinton is laying out his plans for peace in the Middle East, others are talking about their readiness for war. Iraqi dictator Saddam Husayn's defiant January 6 Army Day speech supporting the Palestinian revolt followed on the December 31 four-hour "Al Aqsa Call" military parade in Baghdad dedicated to the Palestinian cause. By some reports, this parade included hundreds of tanks, dozens of helicopters, new troop-transport trucks, and new short-range missiles — impressive, given that the Iraqi army was assumed to be having problems maintaining its equipment, much less acquiring new systems. One unconfirmed report suggests that elements of the Hamurabi Republican Guard Division would be permanently stationed west of Baghdad on the road to either Syria and Jordan.
Topic:: International Relations and Security
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Jordan

Author:: Patrick Clawson and Fredric Hof
Publication Date:: 04-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Press reporting out of the Middle East in the wake of the failed Geneva summit between Presidents Bill Clinton and Hafiz al-Asad suggests that the territorial dispute between Damascus and Jerusalem has widened and that issues pertaining to the ownership of the Sea of Galilee (also known as the Kinneret and as Lake Tiberias) have come to the fore.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Geneva, Middle East, Arabia, Jerusalem, and Arab Countries

Author:: Patrick Clawson, Daniela Gressani, and Eliyahu Kanovsky
Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In many ways, Syria's economy is not very different from that of other countries in the region. Oil is important, accounting for 60 percent of exports. Agriculture is more important than might be expected on the basis of natural endowment: it contributes about 20 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) and about 30 percent of employment. Industry remains very much state led, even when not state owned. The private sector is subject to comprehensive regulations, and foreign trade is less than might be expected for an economy Syria's size. On the other hand, there is a fair amount of labor moving from Syria to neighboring countries. Syria has a young population, so the labor force is growing; young people entering the labor force have a much better education than did the previous generation and therefore seek better jobs and better opportunities.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arab Countries, and Syria

Author:: Patrick Clawson and Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: After more than a week of negotiations in Shepherdstown, W.Va., the "working draft" of the Syria-Israel peace treaty reported in yesterday's Ha'aretz notes only one area of seemingly irreconcilable difference between the two parties—over the scope of the demilitarized zone separating the two sides. As currently worded, the text neither rules in nor rules out an Israeli withdrawal to the "June 4, 1967, lines." The draft reflects a document much more detailed than a Camp David-style framework accord or an Oslo-type Declaration of Principles but still far short of a full-blown peace treaty. In tone and wording, it is a throwback to the Egypt-Israel peace treaty, with few improvements and even several drawbacks from that two-decade-old document.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, Syria, and Egypt

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