Author: Oxford Analytica / Topic: Government

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 10-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Compromise and accommodation are the watchwords of the new Indonesian government. During the past two weeks, the top legislative and executive positions have been distributed to the leaders of four of the country's five major political parties. The new cabinet, announced on October 26, continues this trend. Active and retired members of the military hold six seats, giving them a larger representation than any single political party. Not only President Abdurrahman Wahid, but all of Indonesia's political leaders, are hoping that by sharing power, rather than struggling for supremacy, conflict can be minimised and some measure of reform achieved. However, it is likely that governmental splits will emerge in the medium term.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 09-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The Indonesian army has, so far, failed to derail President BJ Habibie's plans for East Timorese self-determination. Nevertheless, military leaders have reasserted themselves as key players in domestic politics by imposing a high cost on politicians who fail to take sufficient account of their agenda. Civilian contenders for political power are actively courting army support. A likely consequence will be the emergence of a civilian-led government with close ties to the military. Opposition leader Megawati Sukarnoputri is the front-runner for the presidency, possibly with Army Chief General Wiranto as her vice-president.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Southeast Asia

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 09-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Debate surrounding the US elections in 2000 has centred on the contests for the presidency, and control of the House of Representatives. Far less attention has been placed on the partisan balance within the Senate. During the past two decades, the upper chamber has increased its influence over policy direction, a trend that appears likely to continue. Growing senatorial influence will act as a moderating force in US politics regardless of who occupies the White House or which party holds a majority in the House.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: United States

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 08-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The present incursion of Islamic rebels into Dagestan is not the prelude to a re-run of the Chechen war across the Russian periphery. However, it highlights Moscow's failure to adequately monitor developments in the North Caucasus region and the lack of military preparedness for dealing with internal rebellions. Despite the potential for increased violence, weak central government control is likely to prevail across the region, but only because for the majority of the local population, the alternatives appear even less palatable.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Islam
Political Geography:: Russia and North Caucasus

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 08-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: In the past nine months, the United States and the United Kingdom have pursued a low-intensity military campaign against Iraq. Such actions have been made easier by a lack of political scrutiny. However, the US administration in particular now faces mounting criticism from France, China and Russia, who favour a relaxation of policy, and domestic US interest groups favouring a more activist stance. Despite these pressures, US President Bill Clinton is unlikely to change policy significantly in his remaining 18 months of office.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, Iraq, United Kingdom, Middle East, and France

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 08-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: On July 28, the IMF's Board of Directors announced their approval of a 4.5 billion dollar loan to Russia. Rather than representing a breakthrough deal, the agreement is merely the latest chapter in the cycle of non–compliance and renegotiation that has characterised the Fund's relationship with Moscow. With presidential and parliamentary polls scheduled during the next twelve months, electoral pressures will almost certainly prevent the latest macroeconomic programme being implemented. Moreover, unless the root cause of Russia's economic problems—its dire GDP growth rate—is rectified, a further round of comprehensive renegotiations will be required.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Russia and Moscow

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Despite last week's crackdown on pro-reform demonstrations, there is still considerable momentum behind President Mohamed Khatami's political liberalisation drive. While the democratisation movement may have suffered a short-term setback and is likely to encounter further opposition from right-wing clerics, Khatami's reform coalition remains in place and is still likely to be buoyed by next year's parliamentary election results. Nonetheless, the president needs quickly to reassert his commitment to change in the run-up to the election.
Topic:: Security, Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

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