Author: Nathalie Tocci / Political Geography: Turkey

Author:: Nathalie Tocci
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The International Spectator
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Relations between Turkey and Northern Iraq have evolved at a breathtaking pace, with Turkish policies currently bolstering the KRG's drift towards independence, a prospect considered unthinkable in Ankara only a few years ago. Energy politics is an important component of this puzzle, but Ankara's strategic choice can only be understood against the backdrop of Iraq's deepening sectarianisation, the unfolding civil war in Syria and the dynamics in Turkey's own Kurdish question. The Turkish government is pursuing a high risk/high gain strategy. A more democratic Turkey, in partnership with the KRG, would be best placed to hedge against the centrifugal sectarian trends afflicting its southern neighbours. It is far more likely that Turkey will win its gamble with the support of the European Union.
Political Geography:: Iraq, Turkey, Syria, and Kurdistan

Author:: Nathalie Tocci
Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Diehard believers in Turkey's European future had, for a brief moment, hung their hopes on the European Parliament (EP) as the key to unlocking the poisonous stalemate in Turkey's ailing accession process. The glimmer of light had come with the Lisbon Treaty, which could have been used to unblock the stalemate over the Direct Trade Regulation (DTR) between the EU and northern Cyprus by granting a voice to the EP on the matter. Breaking the stalemate would not have magically removed all obstacles to Turkey's protracted accession process. But it would have breathed new life and instilled a dose of much-needed optimism in the troubled relations between Turkey and the Union. Alas, that opportunity has been lost and, with it, the short-term hope of a rosier future for Cyprus, Turkey and the EU as a whole.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Lisbon, and Cyprus

Author:: Nathalie Tocci
Publication Date:: 07-2010
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Insight Turkey
Institution:: SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:: Debates over Turkey's application for EU membership are rife with pessimism nowadays. Much of the gloom comes from the many obstacles either directly or indirectly posed by the Cyprus conflict and its manifold repercussions on EU-Turkey relations. Resolving the Cyprus conflict remains the only means to untie the Gordian knot at the heart of Turkey's troubled accession process, but a settlement of the conflict on the island may not be in sight. However, hidden within the technicalities of the post-Lisbon EU decision-making process may be a ray of light that could unblock Turkey's troubled path to Europe. The Direct Trade Regulation, proposed back in 2004 by the European Commission to lift the isolation of northern Cyprus, may be resurrected by the new decisionmaking procedures of the post- Lisbon EU. Were this to take place, much needed momentum may be injected in Turkey's ailing EU accession process.
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Island, and Cyprus

Author:: Nathalie Tocci
Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:: Today's southeast Turkey has historically been the homeland of a large number of diverse ethnic groups. Nowadays, in many town and villages of the region the largest ethnic group is Kurdish. Turkish officials under Turgut Özal in the 1990s for the first time admitted there may be around 10 million Kurds living in Turkey. Other estimates indicate a Kurdish population of around 15 million. Adding to this figure the additional 10 million or so Kurds living in Iran, Iraq, Syria and the former Soviet Union, the Kurdish people represent the largest ethnic group in the world without a state of their own.
Topic:: Security and NATO
Political Geography:: Iraq, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

Author:: Nathalie Tocci and Marc Houben
Publication Date:: 04-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:: Can Turkey's demands for equal treatment with EU member states be reconciled with the EU's demand for autonomous decision capacity? This commentary analyses the Turkish position and assesses the theoretical and practical possibilities for accommodating Turkey's demands in the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP).
Topic:: NATO
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

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