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1. A Note on the Middle Class in Latin America

Author:
Nancy Birdsall
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The Carbon Monitoring for Action (CARMA) database provides information about the carbon dioxide emissions, electricity production, corporate ownership, and location of more than 60,000 power plants in over 200 countries. Originally launched in 2007, CARMA is provided freely to the public at www.carma.org and remains the only comprehensive data source of its kind. This paper documents the methodology underpinning CARMA v3.0, released in July, 2012. Comparison of CARMA model output with reported data highlights the general difficulty of precisely predicting annual electricity generation for a given plant and year. Estimating the rate at which a plant emits CO2 (per unit of electricity generated) generally faces fewer obstacles. Ultimately, greater disclosure of plant-specific data is needed to overcome these limitations, particularly in major emitting countries like China, Russia, and Japan. For any given plant in CARMA v3.0, it is estimated that the reported value is within 20 percent of the actual value in 85 percent of cases for CO2 intensity, 75 percent for annual CO2 emissions, and 45 percent for annual electricity generation. CARMA's prediction models are shown to offer significantly better estimates than more naïve approaches to estimating plant-specific performance.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Poverty, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, China, America, and Latin America

2. Declining Inequality in Latin America: Some Economics, Some Politics

Author:
Nancy Birdsall, Nora Lustig, and Darryl McLeod
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Latin America is known to have income inequality among the highest in the world. That inequality has been invoked to explain low growth, poor education, macroeconomic volatility, and political instability. But new research shows that inequality in the region is falling. In this paper we summarize recent findings on inequality, present and discuss an assessment of how the type of political regime matters and why, and investigate the relationship between changes in inequality and changes in the size of the middle class in the region. We conclude with some questions about whether and how changes in income distribution and in middle-class economic power will affect the politics of distribution in the future.
Topic:
Economics, Poverty, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
Latin America

3. The Washington Consensus: Assessing a Damaged Brand

Author:
Nancy Birdsall, Augusto de la Torre, and Felipe Valencia Caicedo
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
In this paper we analyze the Washington Consensus, which at its original formulation reflected views not only from Washington but also from Latin America. We trace the life of the Consensus from a Latin American perspective in terms of evolving economic development paradigms. We document the extensive implementation of Consensus-style reforms in the region as well as the mismatch between reformers' expectations and actual outcomes, in terms of growth, poverty reduction, and inequality. We then present an assessment of what went wrong with the Washington Consensus-style reform agenda, using a taxonomy of views that put the blame, alternatively, on (i) shortfalls in the implementation of reforms combined with impatience regarding their expected effects; (ii) fundamental flaws—in either the design, sequencing, or basic premises of the reform agenda; and (iii) incompleteness of the agenda that left out crucial reform needs, such as volatility, technological innovation, institutional change and inequality.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Washington and Latin America

4. Schooling Inequality, Crises, and Financial Liberalization in Latin America

Author:
Nancy Birdsall, Gunilla Pettersson, and Jere R. Behrman
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Latin America is characterized by high and persistent schooling, land, and income inequalities and extreme income concentration. In a highly unequal setting, powerful interests are more likely to dominate politics, pushing for policies that protect privileges rather than foster competition and growth. As a result, changes in policies that political elites resist may be postponed in high-inequality countries to the detriment of overall economic performance.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Globalization, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Latin America

5. Reflections on the Macro Foundations of the Middle Class in the Developing World

Author:
Nancy Birdsall
Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
In this working paper I define inclusive growth as growth conducive to increasing the size and economic command of the middle class. I suggest a definition of the middle class based on absolute and relative measures of country-based income distributions, and present evidence of change in the size of the “middle class” for selected developing countries. I then review how macroeconomic policies shape the environment and incentives for inclusive growth, focusing on three areas: fiscal discipline, the more rule-based the better; a fair tax and redistribution system; and a business friendly exchange rate.
Topic:
Education and Poverty
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Central America