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1. The EU accession prospects of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia

Author:
Michael Emerson, Tinatin Akhvlediani, Denis Cenusa, Veronika Movchan, and Artem Remizov
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In the week following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 all three East European states associated with the EU – Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia – submitted applications to accede to the EU. In response, the European Commission published ‘Opinions’ in June, setting out in each case conditions that should be met for these applications to advance on the path towards membership. This paper reports on the first half-year of the work undertaken by the three states to meet these conditions. All three states have set in motion actions largely concerning the fundamental political and rule of law criteria for membership. In all cases there is much work in progress underway, with some conditions already met, and others at an earlier stage. For both Ukraine and Moldova, it is possible that the majority of conditions will be met in the course of 2023. For Georgia there are still some more basic political obstacles to be overcome. The Commission is due to publish in October 2023 comprehensive evaluations of the preparedness of each of the three states, and in the case that the conditions are largely met, the EU should as a next step open up the formal accession negotiation process. It is also recommended that the EU reform by that time the accession process itself, notably by switching to qualified majority voting on the details of the procedures, and better still adopting a staged accession process that would assure structured incentives for overcoming the blockages in the present system as seen in the Western Balkans.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Rule of Law, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Moldova, and Georgia

2. Opinion on Moldova’s application for membership of the European Union

Author:
Michael Emerson, Denis Cenusa, Steven Blockmans, and Tinatin Akhvlediani
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper responds to Moldova’s request of 3 March 2022 to accede to membership of the European Union. The European Council meeting at Versailles on 10-11 March endorsed the Council’s invitation to the European Commission to produce an Opinion on this request. The present paper gives our opinion on the position that we would like to see the Commission take, namely that the EU should extend candidate status to Moldova. Progress in implementing the Association Agreement and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area between the EU and Moldova means that there is already a substantial degree of preparedness for the accession process. While Moldova has an important reform agenda to sustain, especially on the judiciary and rule of law, its democratic electoral processes have been of impressive quality since 2020. There is good coherence between the presidency, government and parliament on the reform and European integration agendas. Moldova’s common history, border and partly overlapping citizenship with EU Member State Romania is also relevant. With Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine, Moldova is next at risk on account of political, economic and security vulnerabilities. Recent explosions in Transnistria point to the possibility of this separatist region being instrumentalised by Russia to destabilise Moldova. These factors further underline the case for comprehensive EU support and the need for geostrategic clarity, which should be framed by an EU decision to extend candidate status to Moldova.
Topic:
Security, Reform, European Union, Regional Integration, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe and Moldova

3. Interpreting the Commission Opinions on the membership applications of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, and next steps for the European Council

Author:
Michael Emerson, Steven Blockmans, and Tinatin Akhvlediani
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The Commission’s three Opinions on the membership applications of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, if endorsed by the European Council as seems likely on 23-24 June, will mark a geopolitical turning point for Europe, bringing the three eastern European states into the EU’s enlargement process, albeit with a less advanced formulation for the time being for Georgia than for Ukraine and Moldova. A broad geopolitical advance is favourably viewed by most EU citizens and its main international partners. The European Council’s agenda is of even wider importance, with discussions due to take place on both possible reform of the existing enlargement process and the ideas advanced by Presidents Macron and Michel for a new form of political community that would aim to embrace the whole of Europe (except of course for Russia and Belarus).
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, Regional Integration, Regional Politics, and European Council
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia

4. Eastern Partnership policy beyond 2020

Author:
Michael Emerson, Steven Blockmans, Denis Cenusa, Tamara Kovziridze, and Veronika Movchan
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
With the bold title EasternPartnership policy beyond 2020: Reinforcing Resilience – an Eastern Partnershipthat delivers for all, the recent EU Joint Communication offers a broad array of policy orientations but little operational specificity, find the authors of this commentary. Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine – each with EU Association Agreements, requested a ‘quadrilogue’ with the EU to deal with matters of common concern to them but not the other EaP states. The fact that this request was not granted is a glaring omission from the Communication, but one that could still be corrected at the EaP summit on June 18th. The summit should also agree the policy direction of the EU and the Eastern partner states beyond 2020, and include the many transnational issues worthy of quadrilateral consultations. Among these issues is how the revision of major EU policies, such as those on energy, climate and competition, may affect the associated states.
Topic:
Climate Change, Partnerships, Transnational Actors, Resilience, Energy, and Competition
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia

5. 100 Ideas for Upgrading the Association Agreements and DCFTAs with Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine

Author:
Michael Emerson and Steven Blockmans
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
There are now many ideas in circulation to enhance the Association Agreements (AA), which include the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas (DCFTA), stimulated in part by the ‘Structured Consultation’ on the future of the Eastern Partnership (EaP) initiated by the Commission in 2019. All three AA states made detailed submissions; the present note seeks to incorporate these and other ideas into the makings of a possible initiative to upgrade the agreements and give them renewed and politically significant momentum.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Partnerships, Free Trade, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia

6. Political and Economic Governance in the Balkans and Eastern Europe Compared

Author:
Michael Emerson and Gergana Noutcheva
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The not-yet EU member states of the Balkans and three states of Eastern Europe – Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine – have much in common: geographic proximity to the EU, political priority to become members of the EU, and similar struggles to improve their political and economic governance in line with EU standards and values. The EU’s main differentiation between the two groups is over the ‘membership perspective’, which has been offered to the Balkans but not to the East Europeans. Beyond this formal political stance, however, in practice the EU been extending virtually the same comprehensive array of economic and political instruments to both groups by signing Association Agreements with the three Eastern European states. This paper breaks new ground by comparing the record of both groups in terms of the quality of their political and economic governance. Using original material and existing sources, it finds that the two groups are comparable at two levels; it looks at both the frontrunners and laggards in each group. Most striking is that the East European frontrunner, Georgia, ranks even slightly ahead of the Balkan frontrunners. This leads into a case for reconsidering the EU’s present political doctrines over both its enlargement and neighbourhood policies, which are manifestly obsolescent. The paper concludes with three options for how the EU might adapt to these realities and make consequential policy changes.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Governance, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, Eastern Europe, Balkans, and Georgia

7. Russia's Punitive Trade Policy Measures towards Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia

Author:
Michael Emerson, Denis Cenusa, Tamara Kovziridse, and Veronika Movchan
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
While EU and US sanctions against Russia over its aggression in Ukraine, and Russia's counter-sanctions, are much discussed due to their evident political significance, less attention has been given to Russia's punitive sanctions against the three Eastern European states – Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia – that have signed with the EU Association Agreements (AA), which include Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) provisions. This paper therefore documents these trade policy restrictions and embargoes imposed by Russia, and provides some first indications of their impact. The immediate impact on trade flows, especially for agri-food products, has been substantial, albeit with some leakage through Belarus. The main instrument for the Russian measures has been allegations of non-conformity with Russian technical standards, although the correlation of these allegations with movements in Russia's geopolitical postures makes it obvious that the Russian technical agencies are following political guidelines dressed up as scientific evidence. These measures also push the three states into diversifying their trade marketing efforts in favour of the EU and other world markets, with Georgia already having taken significant steps in this direction, since in its case the Russian sanctions date back to 2006. In the case of Ukraine, Russia's threat to cancel CIS free trade preferences infiltrated trilateral talks between the EU, Ukraine and Russia, leading on 12 September to their proposed postponement until the end of 2015 of the 'provisional' implementation of a large part of the AA/DCFTA. This was immediately followed on 16 September by ratification of the AA/DCFTA by both the Rada in Kyiv and the European Parliament, which will lead to its full and definitive entry into force when the 28 EU member states have also ratified it. However Putin followed the day after with a letter to Poroshenko making an abusive interpretation of the 12 September understanding.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Power Politics, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia