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1. How to Unseat Saddam (Part 2 of 2)

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Psyops and propaganda activities that aim to diminish Saddam in the eyes of his supporters, exacerbate existing strains between his inner circle and the military, stir up popular discontent, and embolden opponents of the regime are a crucial component of any policy that seeks regime change in Baghdad. Such efforts could keep Saddam on the defensive and create an atmosphere of crisis and tension, forcing the regime to divert assets to deal with internal security, and leaving fewer resources available for clandestine technology procurement or trouble-making elsewhere. Such efforts could transform the psychological environment in the country, creating an atmosphere in which a coup or uprising might occur.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries

2. How to Unseat Saddam (Part 1 of 2)

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Before September 11, U.S. policymakers would have been hard-pressed to justify significant military action against Iraq without a major provocation. The events of September 11 and the subsequent anthrax incidents, however, have highlighted the dangers of "business as usual" in an age of sophisticated terrorism and weapons proliferation, and the potentially high costs of ignoring the likes of Saddam Hussein; that is true whether or not Iraq was associated with these events. The risks of perpetuating a faltering containment policy, and the imperative of regime change in Iraq have never been clearer.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

3. Special Policy Report: Inside Afghanistan and Pakistan

Author:
Michael Rubin, Michael Eisenstadt, and David Isbey
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On September 21, Michael Rubin, a visiting fellow at The Washington Institute who traveled to Afghanistan and Pakistan in 1997 and 2000; David Isbey, specialist correspondent for Jane's Intelligence Review and director of the Committee for a Free Afghanistan; and Michael Eisenstadt, senior fellow at The Washington Institute specializing in military affairs, addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Middle East, and Arab Countries

4. Preparing for Nuclear Breakout in the Middle East (Part II)

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A nuclear breakout by Iraq or Iran could have a number of direct and indirect effects on the region: First, a nuclear breakout by either will cause the United States to be much more careful in its dealings with that state, particularly when it comes to considering military action. America's military freedom-of-action will be greatly constrained. Second, an Iraqi breakout would almost certainly cause Iran to further accelerate its own nuclear efforts and might spur Tehran to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which it increasingly sees as a liability. Third, the emergence of a nuclear Iraq and/or Iran could cause the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to seek an independent deterrent capability — including chemical weapons. (The large petrochemical industries of the Gulf could provide many of the precursor chemicals needed for such an effort.) Saudi Arabia might even seek to buy nuclear weapons from Pakistan.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, Iraq, America, Iran, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

5. Preparing for Nuclear Breakout in the Middle East (Part I)

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As U.S. policymakers review options for national missile defense and ways to reshape the military to meet future threats, nuclear proliferation — particularly in the Middle East — looms large as one of the most critical future challenges facing the United States. In the coming years, it is conceivable, if not likely, that the United States will have to respond to a nuclear breakout by Iraq and/or Iran. Such a development could have a dramatic impact on the strategic environment of the Middle East by altering the regional balance of power and encouraging further proliferation in the region and beyond. A nuclear breakout by either of these countries would also undermine international proliferation norms, put U.S. forces in the region at risk, pose a direct threat to U.S. friends and allies, and greatly constrain America's military freedom of action in the region. The likelihood of such a development — or at least its potential impact — will, however, be influenced by steps the United States takes now to deal with such an eventuality. And Washington is more likely to successfully manage the consequences of a nuclear breakout by Iraq or Iran if its response is not improvised, but based on prior planning.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

6. 'Re-Energizing' UN Sanctions on Iraq: Problems and Prospects

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This week, the United States and United Kingdom are circulating a draft resolution in the UN Security Council proposing a package of new measures intended to "re-energize" sanctions against Iraq. They hope to bring the resolution to a vote before the next six-month phase of the "oil for food" program begins on June 4. This revamped sanctions regime will lift restrictions on civilian trade, while retaining both international control over Iraq's oil income through the UN escrow account, and a ban on the import of arms and dual-use items critical to the production of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, United Kingdom, Middle East, and Arab Countries

7. The United States, Iraq, and Iran: Proliferating Risks, Dwindling Opportunities

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
American policymakers face a number of decision points concerning U.S. policy toward Iraq and Iran in the coming weeks. The UN Security Council has to act by June 4 to renew the oil-for-food program, providing the United States with an opportunity to secure approval for the "re-energized" sanctions regime that Secretary of State Colin Powell floated in March. Iran's policy direction will become clearer after its June 8 presidential elections, and that could influence the U.S. decision whether to renew the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act that expires August 5. Meanwhile, U.S. officials are reportedly considering whether to indict senior Iranians for the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, Iran, and Arab Countries