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2. Internal Divisions among Iranian Hardliners Come to the Fore
- Author:
- Mehdi Khalaji
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- During an August 9 visit to Syria, Ali Akbar Velayati, influential advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, stated that Iran is ready to negotiate with the United States regarding its nuclear program. Yesterday, however, Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast announced that Iran has no plans for bilateral negotiation with Washington. These and other conflicting signals point to deep internal divisions among former allies in Iran's hardline camp. Such divisions are part of a longstanding pattern in the Islamic Republic: as soon as one faction seizes power by cutting out its opponents, it splits into warring parties.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and Syria
3. Inside Iranian Politics and Nuclear Strategy: A G-20 Briefing
- Author:
- Mehdi Khalaji and Stephen P. Rosen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Studying the behavior of states with nuclear weapons may give some insight into what Iran would do if it acquires nuclear weapons capabilities. Every state that has nuclear weapons, with the exception of India, has shared the technology and the know-how -- not the weapons -- with other states: the United States shared technology with Great Britain and then, in the 1950s, provided nuclear weapons for German fighter jets on German bases flown by German pilots; Israel and France shared nuclear energy technology in the 1960s;China assisted Pakistan; North Korea aided Syria; and Pakistan assisted many countries through the A. Q.Khan network. In short, states transfer nuclear technology because it is easy to accomplish, difficult to track, and returns very high rewards.
- Topic:
- Islam, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, and North Korea
4. Quds Day in Iran: Velvet Revolution Trumps Nuclear Negotiations
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson and Mehdi Khalaji
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- While the United States is concentrating on the G-20 summit and the October 1 meeting with the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Iranian attention has been focused on the potentially destabilizing protests planned for September 18, Quds Day. This critical difference of agenda -- with Iran focused more on its domestic turmoil than on simmering international issues -- will be a major complicating factor in negotiations between the international community and Iran in the coming weeks.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, International Cooperation, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States and Iran
5. PolicyWatch #1330: Domestic Issues Trump Foreign Policy in Iran
- Author:
- Mehdi Khalaji
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- At each stop on his recent Middle East tour, President Bush centered his foreign policy agenda on the growing threat from Iran. But inside the Islamic Republic, domestic policies -- and not the international issues that Bush highlighted -- are at the center of political debate.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Intelligence, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and Middle East
6. PolicyWatch #1296: Larijani's Resignation: Implications for Iranian Nuclear Policy and Internal Politics
- Author:
- Mehdi Khalaji
- Publication Date:
- 10-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The October 20 announcement of Ali Larijani's resignation as Iran's chief nuclear negotiator and secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) has intensified pressure on President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad. Faced with criticism over the resignation, Tehran ensured that Larijani attended the Iran-European Union (EU) nuclear talks in Rome on October 23. His continued presence in the negotiations raises serious questions about who is in charge of Iran's nuclear policy and other key issues, making the regime's intentions even more of an enigma to the Europeans. As EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana stated after the Rome meeting, "I found the same Larijani I had met before, and he had the role of chief negotiator."
- Topic:
- Government and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Iran, Middle East, Tehran, and Rome
7. Iranian President Ahmadinezhad's Relations with Supreme Leader Khamenei
- Author:
- Mehdi Khalaji
- Publication Date:
- 09-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As part of their close consultation over how to respond to the Iranian nuclear challenge, top officials from the five permanent UN Security Council members and Germany met in Berlin on September 7. In developing a plan for influencing Iran, a key consideration is, who are the key decision-makers in Iran? In particular, what are the relative roles of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad? The record from Ahmadinezhad's first year in office suggests that at least on domestic policy, his actions have systematically reinforced Khamenei's authority.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Germany
8. Ahmadinezhad's Popularity One Year On
- Author:
- Mehdi Khalaji
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Westerners believe Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad to be popular in Iran, in no small part because of his strong support for Iran's nuclear program. However, there is much evidence to the contrary. There is limited information available with which to form a judgment about the popularity of any politician or political program in Iran. The government forbids any independent opinion polling on matters as ordinary as the raging problem of drug addiction, let alone sensitive issues like negotiations with the United States or the nuclear program. The main sources of information for Western media are the statements and photographs that come from Iranian state media, or other Western journalists who go to Iran but cannot work freely in the face of government controls. The Western newsmedia has taken the massive turnouts at demonstrations in support of Ahmadinezhad and his nuclear policy as evidence of popular support for both. But the size of such demonstrations has no meaning beyond illustrating the efficiency of the regime's propaganda machine. Unfortunately, Western media take this propaganda for the truth. The Iranian regime has nearly succeeded in fashioning its own image and imposing it on its critics. Official results show Ahmadinezhad was elected by only 35 percent of eligible voters—in an election that was not free and fair, according to many top Iranian officials. Most of Ahmadinezhad's support came from rural regions and the poorer classes of Iranian society; these voters hoped that Ahmadinezhad's election would reduce corruption and raise their standard of living. Today there are clear signs of dissatisfaction within these constituencies. The evidence comes from independent journalists, blogs, and independent Iranian news websites which have reported increasing discontent with Ahmadinezhad's domestic policies.
- Topic:
- Government, Nuclear Weapons, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and Iran
9. Perils and Promise of U.S.-Iranian Negotiations
- Author:
- Mehdi Khalaji
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On May 7, Lebanese Druze leader and member of parliament Walid Jumblat told reporters in Cairo that Hizballah should disarm. These comments came just four days after Jumblat offered his assistance to the Syrian opposition in establishing "a democratic and free Syria." Jumblat has always been an enigmatic and unpredictable interlocutor, and his recent statements on Syria and Hizballah typify his disregard for the conventions of the Lebanese political establishment. While many Lebanese may quietly support Jumblat's truth telling, his statements are sure to increase his list of powerful enemies.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and Syria
10. Miscommunication between Iranian Society and the West on Iran's Nuclear Program
- Author:
- Mehdi Khalaji
- Publication Date:
- 02-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In recent months, the growing controversy surrounding the Iranian nuclear program and Western suspicions about the military intentions of the Iranian regime has reached a crucial phase. A serious problem for the Western campaign to press the Islamic Republic about its nuclear program is that Iranian society has been indifferent or hostile to the West's efforts. The United States in particular needs to find ways to reenergize its outreach to Iranian society.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States and Iran