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1. Before Zero Day: Taiwan’s Evolving Defense Strategy and the Struggle for Peace

Author:
Eric Lee, Ian Easton, Grace Price, Colby Ferland, Cathy Fang, Mark Stokes, and Alice Cho
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The invasion of Ukraine has upended long-held assumptions of the liberal international order, and as tensions rise in the Taiwan Strait, Taiwanese leaders are watching Ukraine with their futures in mind. The objective of this report is to provide insights into how Taiwanese policymakers, military officers, diplomats, strategists, and everyday citizens are responding to the evolving threat picture in the Taiwan Strait and offer ideas for the policy debate in Washington. This report examines leadership speeches, strategy reports, military writings, and media articles, as well as recounts findings from interviews with Taiwanese and U.S. government officials, military officers, and civil society.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Peace, and International Order
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

2. Early Warning in the Taiwan Strait

Author:
Mark Stokes and Eric Lee
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Shows of force from China’s People’s Liberation Army exist on a continuum from peace to war and can be characterized as coercive or annihilative. In this report, Executive Director Mark Stokes and Associate Director of Programs Eric Lee examine kinetic and non-kinetic threats posed to Taiwan by the People’s Liberation Army. The authors explore the history of Taiwan’s early warning infrastructure and radar order of battle. They then assess how these capabilities support Taiwan’s air sovereignty missions of surveillance and control around its territories. They conclude by suggesting ways the United States can bolster Taiwan’s early warning capabilities.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Sovereignty, Surveillance, and Army
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

3. Watching Over the Taiwan Strait: The Role of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in Taiwan’s Defense Strategy

Author:
Ian Easton, Mark Stokes, Yang Kuang-shun, Eric Lee, and Colby Ferland
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Unmanned systems are likely to transform the Taiwan Strait battle space in the coming years. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has fielded a large and increasingly sophisticated force of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) opposite Taiwan. This underscores the importance of exploiting advanced unmanned systems to deter opportunistic acts of aggression, and to defeat the PLA’s potential use of force in the event that deterrence should fail. This report examines the current state and trajectory of Taiwan’s indigenous UAV capabilities, and illuminates the role UAVs play within both Taiwan’s defense strategy and the American-led Indo-Pacific security network more broadly. In addition, this report evaluates the PLA’s organizational infrastructure designed for a Taiwan campaign, discusses cross-Strait political-military challenges, and highlights future opportunities to expand U.S.-Taiwan military and security cooperation as part of long-term strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and United States of America

4. China’s Air Defense Identification System: The Role of PLA Air Surveillance

Author:
Mark Stokes
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
In the wake of the 18th Central Committee’s Third Plenum in November 2013, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) Ministry of National Defense (MND) announced the establishment of its first air defense identification zone (ADIZ). Assessments of the ADIZ to date have focused in large part on implications for territorial and maritime disputes in region. However, other potential drivers may offer additional context for the decision. Among these include coercion of Taiwan, unprecedented changes in China’s national airspace management system, and technical advances that have enhanced interoperability between the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) and Navy (PLAN).
Topic:
Defense Policy, Territorial Disputes, Surveillance, and Air Force
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5. China’s Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) Satellite Developments: Implications for U.S. Air and Naval Operations

Author:
Ian Easton and Mark Stokes
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
A review of authoritative Chinese writings indicate that the People’s Republic of China is researching, developing, testing, and deploying a number of electronic intelligence (ELINT) satellites for the tracking and targeting of mobile air defense systems and ships at sea. This program has potentially serious and immediate implications U.S. and allied air and naval operations in the Asia-Pacific region.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Intelligence, Armed Forces, and Satellite
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

6. Revolutionizing Taiwan’s Security: Leveraging C4ISR for traditional and non-traditional challenges

Author:
Mark Stokes
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
As a global leader in technology, Taiwan is yet to leverage the information revolution for its C4ISR needs. Faced with an array of security challenges, from China’s conventional and electronic attack to the risk of natural disasters, Taiwan’s defense and disaster management capabilities can be fortified with advanced sensor, communications and satellite technology. In doing so, Taiwan can significantly improve its security outlook.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

7. Deter, Defend, Repel, and Partner: A Defense Strategy for Taiwan

Author:
Dan Blumenthal, Gary J. Schmitt, Michael Mazza, Randall Schriver, and Mark Stokes
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Taiwan is a great success story. It is a prosperous, thriving democracy living at peace—and it wants to remain at peace. A recent poll shows that more than 90 percent of Taiwanese support maintaining the “status quo,” meaning principally that an overwhelming majority of the island's citizens wants to avoid a conflict with the mainland if at all possible while retaining their de facto sovereignty.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Peace Studies, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Israel, Taiwan, and Asia