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11. Going Beyond Economic Engagement: Why South Korea Should Press the North on Labor Standards and Practices

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In recent years, despite a history of enmity and armed conflict that never really ended after the Korean War more than 60 years ago, South Korea has been a major investor in North Korea, and South Korean firms have employed more than 50,000 North Korean workers. South Korea's stated goal has been to encourage sufficient economic progress by North Korea, emboldening it toward establishing a meaningful basis for reconciliation and, ultimately, national unification. The expectation, or at least the hope, has been to use economic engagement to lessen the North's direct state control over the economy and to encourage the development of a middle class that might demand greater internal opening. The goal, as enunciated by former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung, has also been to foster a rise of interest groups with an enhanced stake in peaceable external relations.
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

12. Managing Myanmar's Resource Boom to Lock in Reforms

Author:
Marcus Noland and Cullen S. Hendrix
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Myanmar is in the midst of a long and difficult multifaceted transition, involving political liberalization, economic reform, and the resolution of multiple long-standing civil conflicts. The country has a history of ethno-religious conflict and separatism. Civil-military relations are muddy, and business-military-state relations are similarly opaque. An ongoing natural resource boom, and the blessings and curses that come with it, further complicates these developments. Given the country's evident institutional weaknesses, external policy anchors could play a critical role in this transition. Hendrix and Noland address the possible role for such international precommitment mechanisms—in particular, the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI)—in Myanmar's growing extractive sector.
Topic:
Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Asia and Myanmar

13. What Goes into a Medal: Women's Inclusion and Success at the Olympic Games

Author:
Marcus Noland and Kevin Stahler
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper examines determinants of women's participation and performance in the Olympics. Female inclusion and success are not merely functions of size, wealth, and host advantage, but a more complex process involving the socio-economic status of women and, more weakly, broad societal attitudes on gender issues. Female labor force participation and educational attainment in particular are tightly correlated with both participation and outcomes, even controlling for per capita income. Female educational attainment is strongly correlated with both the breadth of participation across sporting events and success in those events. Host countries and socialist states also are associated with unusually high levels of participation and medaling by female athletes. Medal performance is affected by large-scale boycotts. Opening competition to professionals may have leveled the playing field for poorer countries. But the historical record for women's medal achievement is utterly distorted by the doping program in the former East Germany, which specifically targeted women. At its peak in the 1970s and 1980s, the program was responsible for 17 percent of the medals awarded to women, equivalent to the medal hauls of the Soviet or American team in 1972, the last Olympics not marred by widespread abuse of performance-enhancing drugs.
Topic:
Education, Gender Issues, Human Rights, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
America and Germany

14. Economic Crime and Punishment in North Korea

Author:
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
STEPHAN HAGGARD and MARCUS NOLAND describe North Korea's prison system. The system includes not only the infamous penal camps for political prisoners but detention facilities that permit short-run incarceration for economic crimes. They find that those with greater involvement in the market are more likely to face incarceration in such facilities and that the criminalization of economic activity allows the state to extract bribes.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
North Korea

15. Developing the Services Sector as Engine of Growth for Asia: An Overview

Author:
Marcus Noland and Donghyun Park
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The maturing of the manufacturing sector in many Asian countries, combined with the relative backwardness of its services sector, has made services sector development a top priority for developing Asia. The authors' central objective is to broadly survey and analyze the current landscape of the region's services sector so as to assess its potential to serve as an engine for inclusive economic growth. Their analysis indicates that services are already an important source of output, growth, and jobs in the region. However, its productivity greatly lags that of the advanced economies, which implies ample room for further growth. The impact of the services sector on poverty reduction is less clear but the authors do find some limited evidence of a poverty reduction effect. One key challenge for all Asian countries is to improve the quality of services sector data. Overall, while services sector development is a long and challenging process, creating more competitive services markets by removing a wide range of internal and external policy distortions is vital for improving services sector productivity. As important as such policy reforms are, complementary investments in physical infrastructure and human capital will also be necessary to achieve a strong services sector.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Israel and Asia

16. Gender in Transition: The Case of North Korea

Author:
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper uses a survey of 300 North Korean refugees to examine the experience of women in North Korea's fitful economic transition. Like other socialist states, North Korea has maintained a de jure commitment to women's rights. However, the authors find that women have been disproportionately shed from state-affiliated employment and thrust into a market environment characterized by weak institutions and corruption. As a result, the state and its affiliated institutions are increasingly populated by males, and the market, particularly in its retail aspects, is dominated by women. Among the most recent cohort of refugees to leave North Korea, more than one-third of male respondents indicate that criminality and corruption is the best way to make money, and 95 percent of female traders report paying bribes to avoid the penal system. In short, the increasingly male-dominated state preys on the increasingly female-dominated market. These results paint a picture of a vulnerable group that has been disadvantaged in North Korea's transition. Energies are directed toward survival, mass civil disobedience is reactive, and as a group, this population appears to lack the tools or social capital to act collectively to improve their status.
Topic:
Corruption, Economics, and Gender Issues
Political Geography:
Israel and North Korea

17. The Microeconomics of North–South Korean Cross-Border Integration

Author:
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Economic integration between North and South Korea occurs through three modalities: traditional arm's-length trade and investment, processing on commission (POC) trade, and operations within the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC). In order, these three modalities are characterized by decreasing exposure of South Korean firms to North Korean policy and infrastructure. Through a survey of 200 South Korean firms operating in North Korea, the authors find that these modalities of exchange matter greatly in terms of implied risk. For example, firms operating in the KIC are able to transact on significantly looser financial terms than those outside it. The authors find that direct and indirect South Korean public policy interventions influence these different modalities of exchange and thus impact entry, profitability, and sustainability of South Korean business activities in the North. In effect, the South Korean government has substituted relatively strong South Korean institutions for the relatively weak Northern ones in the KIC, thus socializing risk. As a result, the level and type of cross-border integration observed in the survey is very much a product of South Korean public policy.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
South Korea and North Korea

18. Networks, Trust, and Trade: The Microeconomics of China–North Korea Integration

Author:
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
A central hope of engagement with North Korea is that increased cross-border exchange will encourage the strengthening of institutions, and eventually, a moderation of the country's foreign policy. An unprecedented survey of Chinese enterprises operating in North Korea reveals that trade is largely dominated by state entities on the North Korean side, although the authors cannot rule out de facto privatization of exchange. Little trust is evident beyond the relationships among Chinese and North Korean state-owned enterprises. Formal networks and dispute settlement mechanisms are weak and do not appear to have consequences for relational contracting. Rather, firms rely on personal ties for identifying counterparties and resolving disputes. The weakness of formal institutions implies that the growth in exchange does not conform with the expectations of the engagement model and may prove self-limiting. The results also cast doubt that integration between China and North Korea, at least as it is currently proceeding, will foster reform and opening.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China, Israel, and North Korea

19. Reordering Chinese Priorities on the Korea Peninsula

Author:
Scott Snyder, Marcus Noland, Bonnie S. Glaser, and Contributor: Stephan Haggard
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The accession to power of a new leader in North Korea has not increased the prospects for denuclearization. Hints that Kim Jong-un might experiment with agricultural and economic reforms are not accompanied by any suggestion that he is considering abandoning the country's nuclear weapons program. On the contrary, all signs point to North Korea's staunch determination to advance the nuclear program while undertaking efforts to compel the international community to recognize it as a nuclear weapons state. Given the growing urgency of the threat posed by North Korea's nuclear weapons development, it is essential to consider new ways to persuade Pyongyang to freeze, reverse, and eventually eliminate its nuclear capabilities
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Israel and Korea

20. Networks, Trust, and Trade: The Microeconomics of China-North Korea Integration

Author:
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
A central hope of engagement with North Korea is that increased cross-border exchange will encourage the strengthening of institutions, and eventually, a moderation of the country's foreign policy. An unprecedented survey of Chinese enterprises operating in North Korea reveals that trade is largely dominated by state entities on the North Korean side, although we cannot rule out de facto privatization of exchange. Little trust is evident beyond the relationships among Chinese and North Korean state-owned enterprises. Formal networks and dispute settlement mechanisms are weak and do not appear to have consequences for relational contracting. Rather, firms rely on personal ties for identifying counterparties and resolving disputes. The weakness of formal institutions implies that the growth in exchange does not conform with the expectations of the engagement model and may prove self-limiting. The results also cast doubt that integration between China and North Korea, at least as it is currently proceeding, will foster reform and opening.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China, Israel, and North Korea