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11. Selective Intervention and Growth: The Case of Korea

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper attempts to determine whether conditions amenable to successful selective interventions to capture cross-industry externalities are likely to be fulfilled in practice. Three criteria are proposed for good candidates for industrial promotion: that they have strong interindustry links to the rest of the economy, that they lead the rest of the economy in a causal sense, and that they be characterized by a high s hare of industry-specific innovations in output growth. According to these criteria, likely candidates for successful intervention are identified in the Korean data. It is found that, with one exception, none of the sectors promoted by the heavy and chemical industry (HCI) policy fulfills all three criteria.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Israel, East Asia, and Korea

12. The Strategic Importance of US-Korea Economic Relations

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Despite the passage of 50 years since an armistice ended military hostilities, the Korean peninsula remains divided, a Cold War vestige that seemingly has been unaffected by the evolution that has occurred elsewhere. If anything, US confrontation with North Korea—a charter member of its “axis of evil”—has intensified in recent years. Yet today, increasing numbers of South Koreans, accustomed to living for decades in the shadows of the North's forward-deployed artillery, do not regard the North as a serious threat. Growing prosperity and confidence in the South, in marked contrast to the North's isolation and penury, have transformed fear and loathing into pity and forbearance. Instead, it is the United States, an ocean away, that regards the North and its nuclear weapons program with alarm. As the United States has focused on the nuclear program, its ally, South Korea, has observed the North Koreans' nascent economic reforms and heard their talk of conventional forces reduction, and the gap in the two countries' respective assessments of the North Korean threat has widened dangerously, threatening to undermine their alliance.
Topic:
Security and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, East Asia, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea

13. Famine and Reform in North Korea

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) or North Korea has been experiencing an ongoing food crisis for more than a decade. A famine in the late 1990s resulted in the deaths of perhaps 600,000 to 1 million people out of a pre-famine population of roughly 22 million. Since then, a combination of humanitarian food aid and development assistance has ameliorated the situation somewhat, but according to the World Food Programme (WFP) and other observers, as of this writing the country is once again on the precipice of another famine.
Topic:
Human Welfare, Non-Governmental Organization, Nuclear Weapons, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Israel, East Asia, North Korea, and Korea

14. The Future of North Korea

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The Korean peninsula has entered a period of considerable change and uncertainty. This paper attempts to sketch out how internal and external forces may shape outcomes in North Korea over the next several years. The range of plausible outcomes is huge, and the paper identifies four possible end states: successful reform and engagement, “muddling through,” elite conflict that could affect the nature of the state, if not the regime, and finally, mass mobilization that could threaten the regime itself. This analysis proceeds under a number of assumptions.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Israel, East Asia, and North Korea

15. Modeling Korean Unification

Author:
Marcus Noland, Sherman Robinson, and Tao Wang
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
For North Korea, product market integration would generate large welfare gains, sufficient to end the famine. Additional gains could be had through military demobilization. For the South, the impact of product market integration would be trivial, but the impact of factor market integration would be considerable, affecting the composition of output, distribution of income, and rate of growth.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Israel, East Asia, and Korea

16. The Costs and Benefits of Korean Unification

Author:
Marcus Noland, Sherman Robinson, and Li-gang Liu
Publication Date:
03-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Existing estimates of the costs of unification are inadequate for a number of reasons. In this paper we use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to calculate South Korean and total peninsular income streams under a variety of unification (and non–unification) scenarios. We find that there are scenarios in which the present discounted value of South Korean income is higher with unification than without it. Although lower income groups in South Korea experience reduced incomes under this scenario, with redistribution of the gains, everyone can be made better off. Indeed, this scenario, which involves relatively low levels of South Korean private investment in the North together with relatively high levels of North–South migration, is also the one which generates the highest level of total peninsular income as well. The latter point is critical in that it suggests that there is no necessary conflict between the economic interests of North and South Koreans after unification.
Topic:
Security, Economics, International Organization, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Israel, East Asia, and Korea