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11. Migration Experiences of North Korean Refugees: Survey Evidence from China

Author:
Stephan Haggard, Marcus Noland, and Yoonok Chang
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Chronic food shortages, political repression, and poverty have driven tens of thousands of North Koreans into China. This paper reports results from a large-scale survey of this population. The survey provides insight not only into the material circumstances of the refugees but also into their psychological state and aspirations. One key finding is that many North Korean refugees suffer severe psychological stress akin to post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). This distress is caused in part by experiences in China. However, we demonstrate that it is also a result of the long shadow cast by the North Korean famine and abuses suffered at the hands of the North Korean political regime. These traumas, in turn, affect the ability of the refugees to hold jobs in China and accumulate resources for on-migration to third countries. Most of the refugees want to permanently resettle in South Korea, though younger, better-educated refugees have a greater inclination to prefer the United States as a final destination.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

12. A Security and Peace Mechanism for Northeast Asia: The Economic Dimension

Author:
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
A continuing leitmotif of the Six Party Talks—among the United States, China, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and North Korea—is the prospect that a resolution of the nuclear question could set the stage for more institutionalized and enduring multilateral cooperation in Northeast Asia. The Joint Statement of September 19, 2005, which outlined the principles governing subsequent negotiations, referenced new “ways and means for promoting security cooperation in northeast Asia,” and the February 13, 2007 Joint Statement created a Working Group on a Northeast Asia Peace and Security Mechanism (NEAPSM).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, International Cooperation, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

13. North Korea's foreign economic relations

Author:
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:
Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:
Many debates about engagement with North Korea hinge on the precise nature of North Korea's foreign economic relations: whether trade and investment are on commercial or non-commercial terms; the extent of illicit activities, and the changing geographic patterns of North Korea's trade. This article provides an effort to reconstruct North Korea's foreign economic relations, subordinating our estimates to the discipline of the balance of payments accounting framework. Among the most salient findings for the debate about engagement and sanctions is that North Korea's trade and investment have continued to increase despite the onset of the nuclear crisis and a decline in illicit activities. This growth has occurred in part because of the growing weight of China and South Korea in trade, aid, and investment. We also find that economic relations between North and South Korea have a substantially greater non-commercial component than those occurring across the China–North Korea border.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
China, South Korea, and North Korea

14. The (Non) Impact of UN Sanctions on North Korea

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
This study finds that North Korea's nuclear test and the imposition of UN Security Council sanctions have had no perceptible effect on North Korea's trade with its two largest partners, China and South Korea. Before North Korea conducted an underground nuclear test, it was widely believed that such an event would have cataclysmic diplomatic ramifications. However, beginning with visual inspection of data and ending with time-series models, no evidence is found to support the notion that these events have had any effect on North Korea's trade with its two principal partners.
Topic:
United Nations and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

15. Exit Polls: Refugee Assessments of North Korea's Transition

Author:
Stephan Haggard, Marcus Noland, and Yoonok Chang
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Results from a survey of more than 1,300 North Korean refugees in China provide insight into changing economic conditions in North Korea. There is modest evidence of slightly more positive assessments among those who exited the country following the initiation of reforms in 2002. Education breeds skepticism; higher levels of education were associated with more negative perceptions of economic conditions and reform efforts. Other demographic markers such as gender or provincial origin are not robustly correlated with attitudes. Instead, personal experiences appear to be central: A significant number of the respondents were unaware of the humanitarian aid program and the ones who knew of it almost universally did not believe that they were beneficiaries. This group's evaluation of the regime, its intentions, and accomplishments is overwhelmingly negative—even more so than those of respondents who report having had experienced incarceration in political detention facilities—and attests to the powerful role that the famine experience continues to play in the political economy of the country.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
China, North Korea, and Korea

16. North Korea's External Economic Relations

Author:
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
North Korea's international transactions have grown since the 1990s famine period. Illicit transactions appear to account for a declining share of trade. Direct investment is rising, but the county remains significantly dependent on aid to finance imports. Interdependence with South Korea and China is rising, but the nature of integration with these two partners is very different: China's interaction with North Korea appears to be increasingly on market-oriented terms, while South Korea's involvement has a growing noncommercial or aid component. These patterns have implications for North Korea's development, the effectiveness of UN sanctions, and its bargaining behavior in nuclear negotiations.
Topic:
Markets and United Nations
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and North Korea