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11. Korean Institutional Reform in Comparative Perspective

Author:
Marcus Noland and Erik Weeks
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In recent years, academic economists have come to appreciate the centrality of public institutions in contributing to economic performance. Yet Korea, arguably the premier success story of the last half-century, has sometimes been described as a First World economy with Third World institutions. Although Korea modestly underachieves on most of the 52 institutional indicators examined in this paper, it is not an outlier, and on most indicators it is converging on global norms from below.
Topic:
International Organization and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, and South Korea

12. The (Non) Impact of UN Sanctions on North Korea

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This study finds that North Korea's nuclear test and the imposition of UN Security Council sanctions have had no perceptible effect on North Korea's trade with its two largest partners, China and South Korea. Before North Korea conducted an underground nuclear test, it was widely believed that such an event would have cataclysmic diplomatic ramifications. However, beginning with visual inspection of data and ending with time-series models, no evidence is found to support the notion that these events have had any effect on North Korea's trade with its two principal partners.
Topic:
United Nations and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

13. Migration Experiences of North Korean Refugees: Survey Evidence from China

Author:
Stephan Haggard, Marcus Noland, and Yoonok Chang
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Chronic food shortages, political repression, and poverty have driven tens of thousands of North Koreans into China. This paper reports results from a large-scale survey of this population. The survey provides insight not only into the material circumstances of the refugees but also into their psychological state and aspirations. One key finding is that many North Korean refugees suffer severe psychological stress akin to post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). This distress is caused in part by experiences in China. However, we demonstrate that it is also a result of the long shadow cast by the North Korean famine and abuses suffered at the hands of the North Korean political regime. These traumas, in turn, affect the ability of the refugees to hold jobs in China and accumulate resources for on-migration to third countries. Most of the refugees want to permanently resettle in South Korea, though younger, better-educated refugees have a greater inclination to prefer the United States as a final destination.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

14. North Korea's External Economic Relations

Author:
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
North Korea's international transactions have grown since the 1990s famine period. Illicit transactions appear to account for a declining share of trade. Direct investment is rising, but the county remains significantly dependent on aid to finance imports. Interdependence with South Korea and China is rising, but the nature of integration with these two partners is very different: China's interaction with North Korea appears to be increasingly on market-oriented terms, while South Korea's involvement has a growing noncommercial or aid component. These patterns have implications for North Korea's development, the effectiveness of UN sanctions, and its bargaining behavior in nuclear negotiations.
Topic:
Markets and United Nations
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and North Korea

15. From Industrial Policy to Innovative Policy: Japan's Pursuit of Competitive Advantage

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Japan faces significant challenges in encouraging innovation and entrepreneurship. Attempts to formally model past industrial policy interventions uniformly uncover little, if any, positive impact on productivity, growth, or welfare. The evidence indicates that most resource flows went to large, politically influential “backward” sectors, suggesting that political economy considerations may be central to the apparent ineffectiveness of Japanese industrial policy.
Topic:
Development, Foreign Exchange, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

16. South Korea's Experience with International Capital Flows

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
South Korea's experience is unparalleled in its combination of sustained prosperity, capital controls, and financial crisis. Over several decades South Korea experienced rapid sustained growth in the presence of capital controls. These controls and the delinking of domestic and international financial markets were an essential component of the country's state-led development strategy. As the country developed, opportunities for easy technological catch-up eroded, requiring more sophisticated corporate and financial sector decision making. But decades of financial repression had bequeathed a bureaucratized financial system and a formidable constellation of incumbent stakeholders opposed to transition to a more market-oriented development model. Liberalization undertaken in the 1990s was less a product of textbook economic analysis than of parochial politicking. The capital account liberalization program affected the timing, magnitude, and particulars of the 1997-98 crisis. Despite considerable reforms undertaken since the crisis, concerns remain about both South Korea's lending culture and its authorities' capacity to successfully regulate the more complex financial system. The main lesson of the South Korean case appears to be that while the state-led model may deliver impressive initial gains, transitioning out of this approach presents an exceedingly complex political-economy challenge.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

17. North Korean Human Rights Act of 2004: Issues and Implementation

Author:
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
It is an honor to be invited to testify before this committee. We would like to begin our testimony by restating a simple yet compelling point: The absence of human, civil, and political rights in North Korea and the humanitarian disaster that afflicts its population are inextricably linked.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

18. The Strategic Importance of US-Korea Economic Relations

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Despite the passage of 50 years since an armistice ended military hostilities, the Korean peninsula remains divided, a Cold War vestige that seemingly has been unaffected by the evolution that has occurred elsewhere. If anything, US confrontation with North Korea—a charter member of its “axis of evil”—has intensified in recent years. Yet today, increasing numbers of South Koreans, accustomed to living for decades in the shadows of the North's forward-deployed artillery, do not regard the North as a serious threat. Growing prosperity and confidence in the South, in marked contrast to the North's isolation and penury, have transformed fear and loathing into pity and forbearance. Instead, it is the United States, an ocean away, that regards the North and its nuclear weapons program with alarm. As the United States has focused on the nuclear program, its ally, South Korea, has observed the North Koreans' nascent economic reforms and heard their talk of conventional forces reduction, and the gap in the two countries' respective assessments of the North Korean threat has widened dangerously, threatening to undermine their alliance.
Topic:
Security and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, East Asia, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea