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1. Decentralization and Poverty Reduction in Bolivia: Challenges and Opportunities

Author:
Lykke E. Andersen and Luis Carlos Jemio
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This paper presents an analysis of the decentralization process that has been taking place in Bolivia over the last couple of decades. It starts with a review of the legal framework that determines the distribution of responsibilities and financial resources to the sub-national governments (9 departments and 339 municipalities), and continues with an analysis of the evolution and distribution of financing to these entities between 2001 and 2013. It then proceeds to describe the resulting progress in social indicators between 2001 and 2012 at the municipal level, and identifies the main remaining gaps in basic services by 2012. Finally, the paper offers an analysis of the factors that are most closely associated with progress in the main social indicator used by the Bolivian government – the Unsatisfied Basic Needs index. This provides the basis for a final section on recommendations for public investment in Bolivia.
Topic:
Poverty, Economy, Decentralization, and Public Investment
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

2. Regional development, income distribution and gender in Bolivia Insights from a 2012 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and Multiplier Analysis

Author:
Luis Carlos Jemio, Lykke E. Andersen, Clemens Breisinger, and Manfred Wiebelt
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This paper describes the construction of the most detailed, openly accessible Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Bolivia to date. In addition to allowing for “standard” socio-economic analysis common for SAMs - like assessing the linkages between production, factor income distribution and households’ incomes and expenditures – the SAM presented in this paper makes detailed economic assessments at the subnational level, by gender and at detailed agricultural subsector levels, possible. Sections 1-4 present the methodology and data sources used, explain assumptions and criteria adopted for SAM disaggregation, and discuss key findings with a focus on distributional features. Section 5 presents results from a simple SAM multiplier model and section 6 concludes. It is the authors’ hope that this SAM database can make a contribution to evidence-based policy making that helps to further reduce poverty and food insecurity in Bolivia.
Topic:
Development, Gender, and Income
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

3. The changing role of the international community in the MDG achievement in Bolivia

Author:
Massimiliano Calì and Luis Carlos Jemio
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
Millennium Development Goal number 8 (MDG8) concerns those external flows (Official Development Assistance, trade and debt relief) that ought to help developing countries achieve the MDGs by 2015. This paper reviews the role of these MDG8- related external flows in the case of Bolivia. Riding on high international prices for its major exports, and on fiscal expansion, remittances and debt forgiveness, Bolivia has experienced solid economic performance in the past few years. This economic performance coupled with the recent increase in social public expenditures by the government has increased the likelihood that the country will achieve all of the MDGs by 2015, except probably for MDG 2. These advances have been achieved in a period of radical change in Bolivia’s dependence on MDG8-related external flows. The composition of external finance in public expenditure has shifted from domination by ODA and debt forgiveness in the first half of the decade to domination by trade, mainly through revenues from hydrocarbon exports. Our findings support the idea that the provision of additional financial resources may not be the priority with regard to organising support to MDG achievements. Spending efficiently and effectively seems to be a more important area for support in Bolivia. As far as trade is concerned, Bolivia already enjoys good market access in its main markets, thus better access through lower non-tariff barriers may be more relevant than improving access in terms of tariffs. Moreover access to markets would be easier if Bolivia were better integrated with world markets, with its regional neighbours in particular. This calls for the support of the international community through aid for trade (AfT), which has instead been worryingly dwindling in recent years. Finally, we argue that MDG8 could be pursued in Bolivia through support for improving access to technology and access to affordable drugs.
Topic:
Debt, Millennium Development Goals, Economy, Trade, and Development Aid
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

4. Insights from Bolivia’s Green National Accounts

Author:
Luis Carlos Jemio and Lykke E. Andersen
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
The purpose of the present paper is to demonstrate the usefulness of Green National Accounting by drawing out some interesting insights from the Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounts recently elaborated by the Institute for Advanced Development Studies for the case of Bolivia. The paper uses the Green National Accounts to show the importance of environmental inputs in 7 different productive sectors and compares the corresponding natural resource rents to the level of producer taxes in each sector. The paper also analyses the evolution of total productive capital, in order to judge whether Bolivia’s current development model can be considered sustainable. The paper finished with recommendations about interesting extensions that can be made to the Green National Accounts.
Topic:
Development, Environment, Natural Resources, and Economy
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

5. The Global Financial Crisis: Effects on Bolivia

Author:
Luis Carlos Jemio and Osvaldo Nina
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
The global financial crisis is expected to have a negative impact on the Bolivian economy. Effects will transmit into the economy through lower export prices and quantities, reduced amount of remittances and depressed foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. These shocks will bring about deficits in the current account and fiscal balances, foreign exchange reserves losses, sluggish economic growth and higher unemployment rates. The latest data available show that the economy is already experiencing the effects of the economic downturn, in the form of decreased exports revenues, sharp reductions in the rates of growth of foreign of exchange reserves and bank lending and a tendency towards a redollarisation of financial assets and liabilities. The Bolivian economy, however, is better prepared, at least in the short run, to cope with the negative effects of the crisis. The commodity export boom experienced between 2005 and 2008 has permitted the country to run sizable external and fiscal surpluses and accumulate foreign exchange reserves. The financial system has exhibited more prudent behaviour in recent years, by not expanding credit too much and increasing investments in highly liquid public bonds. Therefore, although banks are expected to be affected by the global financial crisis, they have high liquidity ratios and are not extremely exposed to risk. The capacity of the Bolivian economy to offset the negative effects of the global crisis will depend on several factors, such as the severity and duration of the crisis and, above all, the quality of the policies that policymakers will implement to cope with the crisis. The government faces several trade-offs in implementing policies in order to cope with the effects of the crisis. The central bank, for instance, is committed to maintaining a fixed exchange rate, in order to reduce inflationary pressures and to avoid a re-dollarisation of the financial system. However, a fixed exchange rate policy has already brought about an exchange rate appreciation, which is hurting competitiveness of tradable activities. Furthermore, the government has room to implement countercyclical fiscal policies, by resorting to the deposits accumulated in the central bank during the export boom years. During 2009, the government is planning to expand public investment and to increase direct transfers to the population. However, these policies are not likely to offset the negative effects that the crisis will have on growth and employment. More efforts should be made to improve the quality of public spending, in order to maximise its impact on economic growth, employment creation and poverty reduction.
Topic:
Development, Financial Crisis, Economy, and Exports
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

6. Reforms and Counter-Reforms in Bolivia

Author:
Luis Carlos Jemio, Fernando Candia, and José Luis Evia
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
Towards the end of the 1970s and beginning of the 1980s, Bolivia experienced a period of deep economic and political crisis, resulting from the international economic shocks that hit the country at the time and from the large levels of foreign indebtedness the country had acquired during the 1970s. The crisis was characterized by hyperinflation, continuous drops in GDP, economic uncertainty and political volatility. Starting in 1985, after a change in government, Bolivia embarked in a comprehensive program of structural reforms aimed at stabilizing the economy and at removing the structural constraints which precluded faster economic growth and increases in productivity. The reform package was implemented over a period of time which began in 1985 and lasted for approximately 20 years. The reform policies comprised measures such as the opening of the economy to foreign trade; price, exchange rate and interest rate liberalizations; fiscal adjustments; central bank independence; instauration of a financial regulation and supervision system; capitalization and privatization of public enterprises; pension reforms; decentralization of the public administration; strengthening of key public institutions, (e.g. the internal revenue and customs offices, and the national road administration), among the most noticeable.
Topic:
Economics, Reform, Trade, and Liberalization
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

7. Booms and Collapses of the Hydro Carbons Industry in Bolivia

Author:
Luis Carlos Jemio
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This paper analyses the performance of the hydrocarbons sector in Bolivia over the last 46 years. The analysis focuses on the factors that have determined the sector’s behavior overtime. First, there is the institutional framework that regulates the sector’s activities, which can play an important role in promoting investment flows, and thus endorse a much faster sector development. The institutional framework comprises several factors, being the most important the existing tax system and the nature of the contractual relationship between the state and the oil company. The stability of the institutional framework is also of paramount importance.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Oil, Gas, and Investment
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

8. Towards a More Employment-Intensive and Pro-Poor Economic Growth in Bolivia

Author:
Luis Carlos Jemio and Maria del Carmen Choque
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
The reform program and growth pattern exhibited by the Bolivian economy in the last decade did not favour employment creation and consequently not an effective reduction of poverty. During the last decade, those sectors where the bulk of employment is concentrated, presented the lowest growth rates of GDP, labour productivity and real incomes. The present paper analyzes in detail the two sectors where the bulk of employment and poverty is concentrated (agriculture and the urban informal sector) in order to determine the critical constraints to improvements in productivity, employment generation, and reductions in poverty.
Topic:
Poverty, Reform, Employment, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

9. Employment-Poverty Linkages and Policies: The Case of Bolivia

Author:
Luis Carlos Jemio and Maria del Carmen Choque
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This study focuses on analysing the linkages between output growth, employment and poverty, at both the macro and micro levels. At the macro level, the linkage between poverty and output growth is conceptualised in terms of the average productivity of the employed work force, which in turn gets reflected in low levels of real wages and low levels of earnings in self-employment. At the micro level of a household, the same linkage between poverty and employment operates through the type and productivity of economic activities in which the earning members of a household are engaged, the low level of human capital of the members of the workforce, the dependency burden that limits participation in the workforce, and the availability of remunerative employment.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Poverty, Labor Issues, and Employment
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia