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1. Making Large-Scale Wind and Solar Power a Reality

Author:
Kevin Ummel
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
South Africa and many other countries hope to aggressively expand wind and solar power (WSP) in the coming decades. This presents significant challenges for power system planning. Success hinges largely on the question of how and where to deploy WSP technologies. Well-designed deployment strategies can take advantage of natural variability in resources across space and time to help minimize costs, maximize benefits, and ensure reliability.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Economics, Energy Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Africa

2. Planning for Large-Scale Wind and Solar Power in South Africa: Identifying Cost-Effective Deployment Strategies Using Spatiotemporal Modeling

Author:
Kevin Ummel
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
South Africa and many other countries hope to aggressively expand wind and solar power (WSP) in coming decades. The challenge is to turn laudable aspirations into concrete plans that minimize costs, maximize benefits, and ensure reliability. Success hinges largely on the question of how and where to deploy intermittent WSP technologies. This study develops a 10-year database of expected hourly power generation for onshore wind, solar photovoltaic, and concentrating solar power technologies across South Africa. A simple power system model simulates the economic and environmental performance of different WSP spatial deployment strategies in 2040, while ensuring a minimum level of system reliability.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

3. Making Large-Scale Wind and Solar Power a Reality

Author:
Kevin Ummel
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
South Africa and many other countries hope to aggressively expand wind and solar power (WSP) in the coming decades. This presents significant challenges for power system planning. Success hinges largely on the question of how and where to deploy WSP technologies. Well-designed deployment strategies can take advantage of natural variability in resources across space and time to help minimize costs, maximize benefits, and ensure reliability.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
South Africa

4. CARMA Revisited: An Updated Database of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Power Plants Worldwide

Author:
Kevin Ummel
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The Carbon Monitoring for Action (CARMA) database provides information about the carbon dioxide emissions, electricity production, corporate ownership, and location of more than 60,000 power plants in over 200 countries. Originally launched in 2007, CARMA is provided freely to the public at www.carma. org and remains the only comprehensive data source of its kind. This paper documents the methodology underpinning CARMA v3.0, released in July, 2012. Comparison of CARMA model output with reported data highlights the general difficulty of precisely predicting annual electricity generation for a given plant and year. Estimating the rate at which a plant emits CO2 (per unit of electricity generated) generally faces fewer obstacles. Ultimately, greater disclosure of plant-specific data is needed to overcome these limitations, particularly in major emitting countries like China, Russia, and Japan. For any given plant in CARMA v3.0, it is estimated that the reported value is within 20 percent of the actual value in 85 percent of cases for CO2 intensity, 75 percent for annual CO2 emissions, and 45 percent for annual electricity generation. CARMA's prediction models are shown to offer significantly better estimates than more naïve approaches to estimating plant-specific performance.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Health, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, and China

5. Global Prospects for Utility-Scale Solar Power: Toward Spatially Explicit Modeling of Renewable Energy Systems

Author:
Kevin Ummel
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper provides high-resolution estimates of the global potential and cost of utility-scale photovoltaic and concentrating solar power technologies and uses a spatially explicit model to identify deployment patterns that minimize the cost of greenhouse gas abatement. A global simulation is run with the goal of providing 2,000 TWh of solar power (-7% of total consumption) in 2030, taking into account least-cost siting of facilities and transmission lines and the effect of diurnal variation on project profitability and required subsidies. The American southwest, Tibetan Plateau, Sahel, and Middle East are identified as major supply areas. Solar power consumption concentrates in the United States over the next decade, diversifying to Europe and India by the early 2020's, and focusing in China in the second half of the decade—often relying upon long-distance, highvoltage transmission lines. Cost estimates suggest deployment on this scale is likely to be competitive with other prominent abatement options in the energy sector. Further development of spatially explicit energy models could help guide infrastructure planning and financing strategies both nationally and globally, elucidating a range of important questions related to renewable energy policy.
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Globalization, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, China, Middle East, and Sahel

6. Desert Power: The Economics of Solar Thermal Electricity for Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East

Author:
David Wheeler and Kevin Ummel
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
A climate crisis is inevitable unless developing countries limit carbon emissions from the power sector in the near future. This will happen only if the costs of lowcarbon power production become competitive with fossil fuel power. We focus on a leading candidate for investment: solar thermal or concentrating solar power (CSP), a commercially available technology that uses direct sunlight and mirrors to boil water and drive conventional steam turbines. Solar thermal power production in North Africa and the Middle East could provide enough power to Europe to meet the needs of 35 million people by 2020.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and North Africa