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2. Autonomy Curbed? Kurdish Oil Exports Hit Snags from Turkey and Baghdad
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
- Abstract:
- For the past three months, the Kurdish region in northern Iraq and its government, the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) have been facing one of the most serious challenges in the two decades of its formal existence. The pipeline through which it exports some 400,000 barrels of oil a day (b/d) – 10 percent of the overall Iraqi exports and 0.5 percent of global production – has been closed since March 25, at an estimated cost of close to a billion dollars a month (approximately $30 million daily). The KRG has depended on income from oil exports for some 80 percent of its budget. The stoppage came after a decade-long arbitration between the Government of Iraq (GOI) and Turkey by the Paris-based International Chamber of Commerce was decided in March in Iraq’s favor. Turkey was ordered to cease loading Kurdish oil without GOI supervision, and to pay Baghdad $1.5 billion in owed fees (Baghdad had demanded $30 billion). Baghdad had claimed that use of the pipeline from northern Iraq to the port of Ceyhan in Turkey by the Kurds without GOI consent was in violation of a bilateral agreement between the two countries from 1973, the annex of which states Turkey would only buy oil from Iraq’s state-owned oil marketer.
- Topic:
- Oil, Economy, Exports, and Autonomy
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)
3. Politics, War and Eastern Mediterranean Gas
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In the past two months, there have been several significant, interlocking developments regarding Eastern Mediterranean gas. In January, the Biden Administration withdrew American support for the Israeli-Cypriot-Greek EastMed gas pipeline. In February, U.S. officials shuttled between Israel and Lebanon for another round of talks to resolve the question of the maritime border and the exclusive rights to exploit gas in their disputed waters. Most importantly, the Russian aggression against Ukraine, which began in late February, has transformed the long-discussed European need to reduce its dependence on Russian gas (and oil) into an urgent priority. It has also exposed the disconnect between optimistic policies that anticipated an imminent shift to renewable resources and the reality that the developed world will, in the short- to medium-term, remain dependent on fossil fuels. Confronted with this new reality, does Europe's need to rapidly diversify its sources of energy increase the strategic value of Eastern Mediterranean gas? And can the Eastern Mediterranean contribute meaningfully to reducing Europe's dependence on Russian gas?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Politics, War, and Gas
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Egypt, and United States of America
4. The “Four Plus One”: The Changing Power Politics of the Middle East
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna and George Meladze
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this inaugural MDC Occasional Paper, Josh Krasna and George Meladze analyze the structure of power in the Middle East during the past decade, mapping the main regional players and the interrelationships between them, and assessing the potential for future change in the politics of the region.
- Topic:
- Politics, Regional Cooperation, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America
5. The Coronavirus in the Middle East: State and Society in a Time of Crisis
- Author:
- Brandon Friedman, Joshua Krasna, Uzi Rabi, Michael Milshtein, Arik Rudnitzky, Liora Hendelman-Baavur, Joel D. Parker, Cohen Yanarocak, Hay Eytan, Michael Barak, and Adam Hoffman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- This collection of essays, published by Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in collaboration with the Moshe Dayan Center (MDC), focuses on how states and societies absorbed the coronavirus shock as the first wave spread through the Middle East, from February through April 2020. It offers a critical examination of how several different Middle East countries have coped with the crisis. This publication is not intended to be comprehensive or definitive, but rather representative and preliminary. Each of these essays draw on some combination of official government data, traditional local and international media, as well as social media, to provide a provisional picture of the interplay between state and society in the initial response to the crisis.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Health Care Policy, Economy, Crisis Management, Sunni, Jihad, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Egypt, Jordan, Gulf Cooperation Council, and Gulf Nations
6. Israel-Greece-Cyprus take on Turkey in the Mediterranean
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Trilateral cooperation among Israel, Greece and Cyprus to build a natural gas subsea pipeline is setting the stage for more tensions with Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, Gas, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and Mediterranean
7. Syria’s Return to the Arab Fold
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Arab countries are re-normalizing their relations with the Assad regime, seeking to balance the strong Iranian and Turkish influences in Syria and to achieve some degree of influence in a new Syrian political-strategic structure. This further cements a Russian-oriented strategic architecture in the region. In the long term, this could lead to tensions between conservative Arab states and Israel, if Israel targets the Syrian military and government in the campaign against Iran, or if Israel continues to promote diplomatic recognition of its Golan annexation.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Governance, Normalization, and Annexation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Asia, and Syria
8. Trump’s Withdrawal from Syria: Not Unexpected and a Victory for the “Astana Three”
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The possibility that Iran and Turkey will be emboldened by the American decision, is worrisome. The main counter to that will be robust deterrence from Israel, whose maintenance may increase the likeliness of escalation in Syria and Lebanon, and even more resort to the restraining hand of Russia.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and JCPOA
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America