Author: John H. Makin / Political Geography: Japan

Author:: John H. Makin
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:: Japan's stock market, one of the world's strongest this year, is up about 20 percent since spring. It is doing remarkably well for a country whose nominal GDP is still below its 1997 level. By contrast, the U.S. stock market has been drifting lower all year. The S 500 Index is down about 4 percent in the last five months, even more when the highflying energy sector is excluded. This is the case despite U.S. nominal GDP having grown by a cumulative 46 percent since 1997. Clearly, stock markets are looking ahead and seeing a brighter future for Japan than for the United States.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, Israel, and East Asia

Author:: John H. Makin
Publication Date:: 02-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:: The average forecast for 2005 U.S. growth is 3.5 percent, with some prognosticators hoping for 4 percent. This forecast is predicated upon the assumption that the economy is on a sustainable expansion path, where consumption will be supported by steady growth of employment and household incomes. The 3.5 percent growth forecast for 2005 is identical to the mean growth rate of the U.S. economy since 1947. However, there is good reason to believe that the consensus forecast is too high. This possibility has important consequences because U.S. growth must be sustained at least at average levels to avoid a sharp drop in global growth. There are no signs of higher growth in Europe and Asia. Growth in Japan is looking weaker, while Chinese growth is moderating.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, Europe, and Asia

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