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11. Shi'i Opposition in Iraq: An Emerging Challenge

Author:
Jeffrey White and Michael Schmidmayr
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Riots last week in Baghdad and Basra raised questions about Shi'i opposition to the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA). While the Shi'i community has been relatively quiet compared to the Sunni population, elements of the Shi'i have adopted a consistent position against the CPA, occupation forces, and the appointed Governing Council. If they deem it necessary, those opposed to occupation have the means and motives to move to armed resistance, which would pose a substantial threat to the coalition.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

12. The New Iraqi Army: Problems and Prospects

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
According to a June 23, 2003, coalition administration announcement, recruitment for the new Iraqi army is to begin shortly. This is a potentially momentous step with major long-term implications for the future of the state. It will not be easy to create a new army to support a democratic Iraq, and certain difficulties will have to be addressed from the very beginning of the process. Success or failure in establishing the basis for an Iraqi military with strong values as well as capabilities will have a significant impact on the future stability of Iraq.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

13. Patterns of Sunni Resistance in Iraq

Author:
Jeffrey White and Michael Schmidmayr
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Almost from the beginning of the occupation of Iraq, coalition forces have faced "resistance" -- armed action against coalition forces, equipment, or facilities. Resistance is to be distinguished from violence by Iraqis against other Iraqis and from "opposition" -- that is, anticoalition statements, demonstrations, or the organization of political activity -- which appears to be more characteristic of the Shi'i.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

14. Iranian Nuclear Weapons, Part III: How Might Iran Retaliate?

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This PolicyWatch is the third in a three-part series. Part I, by Michael Eisenstadt, examined the political and military challenges of preventing an Iranian nuclear breakout; Part II, by Michael Knights, examined the operational challenges of preemptive action.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

15. The Emergence of Resistance in Iraq

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Whatever the long-term prospects for a stable and democratic Iraq, the potential exists for the development of resistance to that goal. This potential is rooted in both historical factors (e.g., Iraq's political culture; Iraqi distrust of the United States; enduring images of colonialism) and immediate circumstances (e.g., the collapse of Saddam Husayn's regime and the attendant destruction of governing systems and infrastructure; the legacy of regime crimes). Indeed, the latter circumstances have created precursors for resistance to coalition forces, the transitional government, and the eventual Iraqi government.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

16. The End of Saddam's Regime

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
"Bloody thou art, bloody will be thy end" -- like Shakespeare's quintessential villain Richard III, Saddam Husayn is being toppled by a combination of forces he called into existence through his own evil actions. Unlike Richard, Saddam's final act will lack heroic qualities. Clearly, the regime's disintegration is accelerating; all that is left is for the final act to be played out.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

17. Fighting the War to Win the Peace in a Post-Saddam Iraq

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt and Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As the coalition prepares for the decisive phase of the war against Saddam Husayn's regime, it is crucial that combat operations set the conditions for achieving U.S. war aims and -- just as important -- winning the peace afterward. The principal war aims are: 1) eliminating Iraq's weapons of mass destruction (WMD); 2) achieving regime change; and 3) setting the conditions for the emergence of a stable, broad-based post-Saddam government. Moreover, prospects for winning the peace will be greatly enhanced if the coalition moves quickly to improve postwar living conditions for the largest possible number of Iraqis; to establish a modicum of stability in the country; and to create conditions wherein coalition forces are viewed not as occupiers, but as partners for building a new Iraq. How should the coalition fight the war in order to achieve these objectives?
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

18. War in Iraq: A Preliminary Assessment

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Saddam Husayn's regime is under relentless attack, and its days are numbered. Exactly when or how the end will come is unclear but not in doubt. After a week of major combat, it is reasonable to assess the progress of this war: accomplishments by both sides, surprising -- and not so surprising -- elements, emerging patterns or trends, and battlefield implications.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

19. Iraq Fights Its War 'Outside-In'

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Iraqi forces have been countering the U.S.-led Operation Iraqi Freedom with a form of "outside-in" strategy, defending their country from the periphery to the center. Although the coalition is winning every significant engagement and has penetrated to the heart of the country, Saddam Husayn's regime is not giving ground easily, and the costs of bringing it down will rise. The regime is demonstrating once again that it is a dynamic opponent, capable of understanding what it faces and coming up with surprises.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

20. The Complexities of a Military Coup Against Saddam

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
There has been much speculation that under certain circumstances -- either just before a war or in the early stages of a coalition operation -- some elements of the Iraqi military would move against Saddam Husayn and his regime. A coup against Saddam would in fact be a highly complex event with uncertain benefits for the coalition. Whether or not such an action were to begin before or after the onset of war, specific requirements would have to be met and serious obstacles overcome in order to achieve a successful end result. The history of failed coups against Saddam suggests just how uncertain the prospects would be for such a result.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries