1. South China Sea, East China Sea, and the Emerging US-Japan-Philippines Trilateral
- Author:
- Jeffrey Ordaniel
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- The U.S.-Japan-Philippines Trilateral Maritime Security Dialogue conducted in December 2022 confirmed that there is very little difference in threat perceptions regarding the East and South China Seas. The three countries view China’s increasingly assertive claims to the territories and maritime zones in the two bodies of water as antithetical to their shared vision of a free, open, and rules-based Indo-Pacific. China’s rapid military expansion, including unprecedented nuclear weapons and missile buildup, reinforces the urgency of the threat. Japanese and Philippine interlocutors worry that as China approaches nuclear parity with the United States, the region’s strategic environment will worsen. American participants emphasized greater and tangible demonstration of alliance commitments and agreed that some risk-taking is required to push back against Chinese coercion. There was a consensus about the challenge of addressing Beijing’s gray zone activities that have so far succeeded in seizing territories and maritime areas in the South China Sea and establishing regular intrusions into Japanese waters in the East China Sea. Participants struggled to find a strategy to blunt China’s salami-slicing tactics while avoiding escalation and armed conflict.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Multilateral Relations, Maritime, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, Philippines, East China, United States of America, and South China Sea