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1. Is It a Nuke?: Pre-Launch Ambiguity and Inadvertent Escalation

Author:
James M. Acton
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Ambiguity about whether a weapon is nuclear-armed prior to its launch is an underappreciated, serious, and growing danger. Rising geopolitical tensions and the decay of arms control are exacerbating the risk that such pre-launch warhead ambiguity could lead to nuclear use in a crisis or conflict. Recent developments in technology—as well as potential future advances, such as the development of ambiguous intercontinental missiles—further add to the danger. A first step toward reducing these risks is to enhance awareness among decisionmakers of the causes and potential consequences of ambiguity. Unilateral and cooperative risk-mitigation measures could further reduce the danger of escalation, including in conflicts between the United States and Russia or the United States and China.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and United States of America

2. Inadvertent Escalation and the Entanglement of Nuclear Command-and-Control Capabilities

Author:
James M. Acton
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This policy brief is based on “Escalation through Entanglement: How the Vulnerability of Command-and- Control Systems Raises the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War,” which appears in the summer 2018 issue of International Security.
Topic:
International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Silver Bullet? Asking the Right Questions About Conventional Prompt Global Strike

Author:
James M. Acton
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The development of non-nuclear weapons that can strike distant targets in a short period of time has been a U.S. goal for more than a decade. Advocates argue that such Conventional Prompt Global Strike (CPGS) weapons could be used to counter antisatellite weapons or sophisticated defensive capabilities; deny a new proliferator the ability to employ its nuclear arsenal; and kill high-value terrorists. Critics worry that CPGS weapons could create serious strategic risks, most notably of escalation—including to the nuclear level—in a conflict.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
United States

4. Beyond Treaties: Immediate Steps to Reduce Nuclear Dangers

Author:
James M. Acton
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The U.S. political parties are divided on nuclear weapons policy. Meanwhile, the United States and Russia have reached an arms control impasse and no new agreement is on the horizon. Confidence-building measures could help reduce nuclear risks between the United States and Russia, advancing the goals of both countries and both U.S. presidential candidates.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia and United States

5. Why Fukushima Was Preventable

Author:
James M. Acton and Mark Hibbs
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Public sentiment in many states has turned against nuclear energy following the March 2011 accident at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station. The large quantity of radioactive material released has caused significant human suffering and rendered large stretches of land uninhabitable. The cleanup operation will take decades and may cost hundreds of billions of dollars.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Disasters, Governance, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Japan and Israel

6. Bombs Away? Being Realistic about Deep Nuclear Reductions

Author:
James M. Acton
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Washington Quarterly
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
There are about 22,000 nuclear warheads in the world today.Reducing that number_eventually to zero_is a major element of U.S. President Barack Obama's foreign policy. To date, his administration's progress toward this goal has been modest, even with agreement on a new round of U.S.—Russian cuts with the New START treaty. Nonetheless, opponents of his agenda, particularly in Congress, worry that any further arms control will pitch the United States down a slippery slope toward zero. Simultaneously, supporters increasingly complain that Obama has not been bold enough. Their frustration, which is felt in capitals across the world, risks compromising the willingness of key states to support important U.S. foreign policy objectives, especially those related to nonproliferation.
Political Geography:
Russia and United States

7. Japan Crisis Not As Bad As Chernobyl

Author:
James M. Acton
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
As the crisis deepens at the Daiichi reactors in Fukushima, Japanese authorities are working to cool the reactors and limit the spread of radiation. The severity of the situation is both unclear and fluid, since measuring gauges at the Daiichi reactors are unreliable and radiation levels have fluctuated greatly on-site. Speaking on NBC's Today Show, Carnegie's James Acton describes the Fukushima reactor crisis as worse than Three Mile Island, though less disastrous than Chernobyl. During the Chernobyl catastrophe, Acton said, a significant fraction of the reactor core explosively spread into the environment. In Japan, the primary threat comes from the melting of the reactor core, exposing fuel rods to the atmosphere. The amount of radiation that will be released from such melting is unclear, Acton concluded.
Topic:
Natural Disasters and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Japan, East Asia, and Island

8. Low Numbers: A Practical Path to Deep Nuclear Reductions

Author:
James M. Acton
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
U.S. policy seeks to create the conditions that would allow for deep reductions in nuclear arsenals. This report offers a practical approach to reducing the U.S. and Russian stockpiles to 500 nuclear warheads each and those of other nuclear armed states to no more than about half that number. This target would require Washington and Moscow to reduce their arsenals by a factor of ten.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Washington, and Moscow

9. Extended Deterrence and Communicating Resolve

Author:
James M. Acton
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Strategic Insights
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Conflict
Abstract:
American thinking about extended deterrence has always tended to focus on its nuclear-weapon capabilities. It is no different today. The Strategic Posture Commission of the United States—a bipartisan commission appointed by Congress 'to examine and make recommendations with respect to the long-term strategic posture of the United States'—reached the following conclusion on the requirements needed to fulfill U.S. security guarantees to Japan. In Asia, extended deterrence relies heavily on the deployment of nuclear cruise missiles on some Los Angeles class attack submarines—the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile/Nuclear (TLAM/N). This capability will be retired in 2013 unless steps are taken to maintain it. U.S. allies in Asia are not integrated in the same way into nuclear planning and have not been asked to make commitments to delivery systems. In our work as a Commission it has become clear to us that some U.S. allies in Asia would be very concerned by TLAM/N retirement.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States and Asia