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52. Intra-Gulf Competition in Africa’s Horn: Lessening the Impact
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Middle Eastern states are accelerating their competition for allies, influence and physical presence in the Red Sea corridor, including in the Horn of Africa. Rival Gulf powers in particular are jockeying to set the terms of a new regional power balance and benefit from future economic growth.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
53. Venezuela’s Military Enigma
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In the bruising contest for power in Venezuela, the armed forces’ loyalties will be a decisive battleground. The high command continues to offer frequent vocal support for President Nicolás Maduro’s government. The opposition, led by Juan Guaidó, who has asserted a claim to the interim presidency backed by the U.S. and numerous Latin American states, has sought since January to fracture that support so as to force Maduro from office and stage fresh elections. This plan has succeeded in exposing the depths of discontent in the military’s rank and file but not in its primary goal. Maduro remains in place, despite a tremendous economic contraction, escalating U.S. sanctions and regional diplomatic isolation
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
54. Seven Opportunities for the UN in 2019-2020
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In a period of increasing international tensions, the role of the UN in resolving major crises is shrinking. World leaders attending the UN General Assembly this month will talk about conflicts from Latin America to Asia. The chances of diplomatic breakthroughs have appeared low, even if this week’s departure of Iran hawk John Bolton from the Trump administration increased speculation about the possibility of a meeting in New York between U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. Looking beyond the General Assembly, opportunities for the Security Council to resolve pressing conflicts – or for Secretary-General António Guterres and other UN officials to do so without Council mandates – seem few. But some nevertheless exist. In cases where the permanent five members of the council (P5) have a shared interest in de-escalating crises, or regional powers collaborate with UN agencies to address conflicts, the organisation can still provide a framework for successful peacemaking.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
55. After Aden: Navigating Yemen’s New Political Landscape
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The past eight years of uprisings and war have redrawn Yemen’s political map almost entirely. UN-led attempts first to prevent and then to end the country’s bloody civil war have failed, often because they lag behind the rapidly changing facts on the ground. The latest political rupture came in August 2019, when the secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC), a self-styled government-in-waiting led by Aydrous al-Zubaidi, seized the southern port city of Aden, the country’s interim capital, from the internationally recognised government of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi. As of this writing, the situation is in flux: the government is mounting an offensive in hopes of retaking Aden; both sides are preparing for renewed battle; and their respective external allies appear to be stepping in.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
56. Iraq: Evading the Gathering Storm
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The rockets that fell close to U.S. assets in Iraq in mid-June and the explosions that struck the assets of Iraqi paramilitary groups with ties to Iran in July and August are ominous signals. They are clear warnings of how badly escalation between the U.S. and Iran could destabilise Iraq and the region as a whole. Even short of hostilities, Washington’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran could wind up placing as much stress – and inflicting as much harm – on its nominal ally Iraq as it does on its enemy Iran. For Iraq, the timing hardly could be worse. It is still recovering from the havoc wreaked by the Islamic State (ISIS) and the costly battle to defeat the jihadists; its institutions and security forces remain brittle; and its government, elected a little over a year ago, hangs on to a slim, precarious parliamentary majority. Washington and Tehran should keep Baghdad out of their confrontation: the costs to both of renewed instability in Iraq would exceed any benefits to either. Attempts to compel the Iraqi government to choose sides would likely fail and lead to chaos instead.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
57. The Libyan Political Agreement: Time for a Reset
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The December 2015 Libyan Political Agreement, signed in Skhirat, Morocco, has re- configured more than contributed to resolving internal strife. A year ago, the conflict was between rival parliaments and their associated governments; today it is mainly between accord supporters and opponents, each with defectors from the original camps and heavily armed. The accord’s roadmap, the idea that a caretaker government accommodating the two parliaments and their allies could establish a new political order and reintegrate militias, can no longer be implemented without change. New negotiations involving especially key security actors not at Skhirat are needed to give a unity government more balanced underpinning.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Peacekeeping, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Libya
58. Myanmar’s Peace Process: Getting to a Political Dialogue
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The current government term may be the best chance for a negotiated political settlement to almost 70 years of armed conflict that has devastated the lives of minority communities and held back Myanmar as a whole. Aung San Suu Kyi and her admin istration have made the peace process a top priority. While the previous government did the same, she has a number of advantages, such as her domestic political stature, huge election mandate and strong international backing, including qualified support on the issue from China. These contributed to participation by nearly all armed groups – something the former government had been unable to achieve – in the Panglong- 21 peace conference that commenced on 31 August. But if real progress is to be made, both the government and armed groups need to adjust their approach so they can start a substantive political dialogue as soon as possible.
- Topic:
- Peace Studies, Peacekeeping, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Burma and Myanmar
59. Boulevard of Broken Dreams: The “Street” and Politics in DR Congo
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Demonstrations in Kinshasa, capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), turned violent on 19 September 2016, when the Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) should have launched the constitutionally-required presidential election process. Protests were expected as a political dialogue launched on 1 September had failed to agree on what to do about the delay. This has accentuated the risk of violent popular anger in urban centres and of a heavy-handed security response. A risk also remains that political parties, including the ruling majority coalition (henceforth “the majority”) and the opposition that looks to the street to force President Joseph Kabi- la to step down, will seek to manipulate that anger. Depending on loosely organised popular revolts to force political change is a tactic that could spiral out of control. To prevent more violence, Congo’s partners need to use diplomatic and financial tools to focus the actors, particularly the majority, on the need to move rapidly to credible elections. They also need to use their leverage and public positions to minimise violence while the political blockage continues.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Democratization, Elections, Democracy, and Political and institutional effectiveness
- Political Geography:
- Democratic Republic of the Congo