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1. CTC Sentinel: January 2023 Issue

Author:
Heni Nsaibia, Caleb Weiss, Brian Dodwell, and Stig Jarle Hansen
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
This issue focuses on Africa, the current epicenter of global jihadi terror. On January 18, 2023, the military junta in Burkina Faso demanded that France withdraw its troops from the country within a month, raising concerns the regime in Ouagadougou may be set to follow Mali in hiring the Wagner Group to help contain the worsening jihadi threat to their country. In the feature article, Héni Nsaibia and Caleb Weiss write that “there seems to be a very significant probability that the military government in Burkina Faso will indeed hire Wagner in the near future.” They assess that a future potential Wagner deployment to Burkina Faso would entrench Russian influence in the region, complicate Western policy in West Africa, and “likely result in a further upsurge in jihadi violence in Burkina Faso given the fact that jihadi attacks, perpetrated by both JNIM and the Islamic State, have increased dramatically across Mali since Wagner’s deployment there just over a year ago.” In our interview, Brigadier General Rose Keravuori, the Deputy Director of Intelligence at the United States Africa Command, observes that “for al-Qa`ida and ISIS, the most operationally active and financially lucrative affiliates are on the African continent.” She warns that Islamic State groups are looking to grow in southern and central Africa and that in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, the al-Qa`ida affiliate JNIM “has grown exponentially, so much so that the littoral countries of Ghana, Togo, and Benin view it as an existential threat.” Stig Jarle Hansen writes that “there are reasons to be optimistic that the current Somali offensive against al-Shabaab could enduringly weaken the group. The operations have gained momentum and demonstrated that the Somali army has made large improvements over the last decade. The use of local clan militias as well as U.S. and Turkish drone support have acted as force multipliers, and the Somali government is finally making a concerted effort to go after al-Shabaab’s income generation.” He argues that “what will be key is to erode al-Shabaab’s ability to infiltrate government-controlled areas and to govern, tax, and implement ‘justice’ in these areas. In the past, this has been crucial to al-Shabaab resilience and income. Accordingly, there needs to be more focus on a ‘clear and hold’ strategy rather than just ‘search and destroy.’”
Topic:
Counter-terrorism, Jihad, Al Shabaab, and Wagner Group
Political Geography:
Africa, Somalia, and Burkina Faso

2. March 2018 Issue

Author:
Jacob Zenn, Bryan Price, Christopher Anzalone, Heni Nsaibia, Caleb Weiss, Markus K. Binder, Jillian M. Quigley, and Herbert F. Tinsley
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
This issue focuses on counterterrorism challenges in Africa. Next month marks the four-year anniversary of Boko Haram’s kidnapping of as many as 276 schoolgirls in Chibok, Nigeria. The hostage attack created global outrage and sparked the social media campaign #BringBackOurGirls. In our cover article, Jacob Zenn outlines the internal dynamics within Boko Haram that led the group to eventually enter into negotiations and release many of the girls. Zenn compares and contrasts the terrorist calculus in this earlier hostage crisis with the kidnapping of 111 schoolgirls in Dapchi, Nigeria, last month, which also resulted in many of the girls being released. Our interview is with Lieutenant Colonel Kent Solheim, commander of 3rd Battalion, 3rd Special Forces Group, which is currently focused on security challenges in Africa. Christopher Anzalone documents how al-Shabaab has continued to take advantage of turmoil in Somalia to sustain its operations and maintain itself as the dominant jihadi group in the country. In the wake of rising jihadi violence in Burkina Faso, including an attack on the French embassy and the Burkinabe army headquarters earlier this month, Héni Nsaibia and Caleb Weiss profile the recently established al-Qa`ida-aligned Burkinabe terrorist group Ansaroul Islam and the threat it poses to the country. Markus Binder, Jillian Quigley, and Herbert Tinsley examine the Islamic State’s development and deployment of chemical weapons. They note that while the group has used such weapons on the battlefield in Syria and Iraq, it has featured little in its propaganda, calling into question how useful the group sees these weapons in advancing its strategic goals. While there has been much alarm about the threat of chemical terror attacks in the West, the authors note the only evidence so far that the Islamic State has transferred its chemical warfare expertise from the battlefield to its foreign terrorism activities is the summer 2017 Sydney hydrogen sulfide plot.
Topic:
Terrorism, Insurgency, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, Al Shabaab, and Chemical Weapons
Political Geography:
Africa, Nigeria, Somalia, and Burkina Faso