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1. Understanding Quality Energy-Related Infrastructure Development in the Mekong Subregion: Key Drivers and Policy Implications

Author:
Han Phoumin, Sopheak Meas, and Hatda Pich An
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Many players have supported infrastructure development in the Mekong Subregion, bridging the missing links in Southeast Asia. While the influx of energy-related infrastructure development investments to the region has improved the livelihoods of millions of people on the one hand, it has brought about a myriad of challenges to the wider region in guiding investments for quality infrastructure and for promoting a low-carbon economy, and energy access and affordability, on the other hand. Besides reviewing key regional initiatives for infrastructure investment and development, this paper examines energy demand and supply, and forecasts energy consumption in the subregion during 2017–2050 using energy modelling scenario analysis. The study found that to satisfy growing energy demand in the subregion, huge power generation infrastructure investment, estimated at around $190 billion–$220 billion, is necessary between 2017 and 2050 and that such an investment will need to be guided by appropriate policy. We argue that without redesigning energy policy towards high-quality energy infrastructure, it is very likely that the increasing use of coal upon which the region greatly depends will lead to the widespread construction of coal-fired power plants, which could result in increased greenhouse gas and carbon dioxide emissions.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, Infrastructure, Renewable Energy, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Vietnam, Burma, Cambodia, Thailand, Southeast Asia, Laos, and Myanmar

2. COVID-19 and Regional Solutions for Mitigating the Risk of Small and Medium-sized Enterprise Finance in ASEAN Member States

Author:
Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, Han Phoumin, and Ehsan Rasoulinezhad
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
One of the significant challenges small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) face is their difficulty in accessing finance. One way to reduce the risk of lending to SMEs is through the credit guarantee scheme (CGS). In this paper, we assess the determining factors of the optimal credit guarantee ratio for the banking industry in four Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, namely Indonesia, Singapore, the Philippines, and Malaysia, by employing statistical techniques and econometric models. The empirical findings prove that the loan default ratio (nonperforming loan/loan, or NPL/L) is the optimal credit guarantee ratio’s main determining factor. Our empirical findings confirm that in the ASEAN region, to help SMEs survive in the emergency stage of COVID-19, the credit guarantee ratio needs to be increased. Gradually, when moving to the new normal stage, the ratio needs to be lessened. Our results show that the credit guarantee ratio should vary for different countries based on the macroeconomic climate and also for each bank or, in other words, for banks with similar financial soundness. Governments should give a higher guarantee ratio to sound banks, whilst less healthy banks should receive a lower guarantee ratio. The study also provides policy recommendations for establishing a regional credit guarantee scheme in ASEAN to promote regional economic cooperation at the SME level for greater economic integration.
Topic:
Finance, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Credit
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

3. Sustainable Water Resource Development Scenarios and Water Diplomacy in the Lower Mekong Basin: Policy Implications

Author:
Han Phoumin
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper uses the current results of the Basin-wide water resource development scenario assessment of the Council Study of the Mekong River Commission Secretariat (MRCS) to analyse potentials benefits for economic development to meet the ambitious goal of the riparian states of the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) countries for poverty reduction and, at the same time, analyse the risks of potential trans-boundary trade-off, which will require an appropriate mechanism to be in place. The scenario assessment results present both opportunities and risks associated with different levels of water resource development in the Mekong countries and the implications of the water diplomacy for both the lower and uper mekong basin. All scenarios could be broadly placed into three main categories with different timeframes and assumptions. Scenario M1 – the early development scenario – characterises baseline water resource developments in 2007; Scenario M2 – the medium-term definite future scenario – characterises existing, under-construction, and firmly-committed water related developments in 2020; and Scenario M3 – the long-term planned development scenario – characterises the planned water developments in 2040 in addition to those assigned for 2020 for implementation over the following 2 decades. The main scenarios aggregate combinations of water resource developments enabling the cumulative assessment of environmental, social, and economic effects in the Member Countries. The Scenarios will bring both economic opportunities in terms of benefits from water resource development as well as risks related to biodiversity changes, the environmental damages and losses of livelihoods, and the dependency on the natural resources of the Mekong River. Each of the scenario results presents the trans-boundary trade-off which requires appropriate skills, capacities of the LMB riparian countries, and water diplomacy to discuss and negotiate for the solutions. Finally, this paper provides some suggestions and policy implications that could be possible mechanisms and solutions for sustainable water resource development in the Mekong region.
Topic:
Environment, Natural Resources, Water, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Asia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Laos

4. Energy Reality and Emissions in ASEAN: Energy Modelling Scenarios and Policy Implications

Author:
Han Phoumin, Fukunari Kimura, and Jun Arima
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) faces tremendous challenges regarding the future energy landscape and how the energy transition will embrace a new architecture – including sound policies and technologies to ensure energy access together with affordability, energy security, and energy sustainability. Given the high share of fossil fuels in ASEAN’s current energy mix (oil, coal, and natural gas comprise almost 80%), the clean use of fossil fuels through the deployment of clean technologies is indispensable for decarbonising ASEAN’s emissions. The future energy landscape of ASEAN will rely on today’s actions, policies, and investments to change the fossil fuel-based energy system towards a cleaner energy system, but any decisions and energy policy measures to be rolled out during the energy transition need to be weighed against potentially higher energy costs, affordability issues, and energy security risks. This paper employs energy modelling scenarios to seek plausible policy options for ASEAN to achieve more emissions reductions as well as energy savings, and to assess the extent to which the composition of the energy mix will be changed under various energy policy scenarios. The results imply policy recommendations for accelerating the share of renewables, adopting clean technologies and the clean use of fossil fuels, and investing in climate-resilient energy quality infrastructure.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Science and Technology, Green Technology, Renewable Energy, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:
ASEAN

5. Potential Renewable Hydrogen from Curtailed Electricity for ASEAN’s Clean Energy: Policy Implications

Author:
Han Phoumin, Jun Arima, and Fukunari Kimura
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The power generation mix of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is dominated by fossil fuels, which accounted for almost 80% in 2017 and are expected to account for 82% in 2050 if the region does not transition to cleaner energy systems. Solar and wind power is the most abundant energy resource but contributes negligibly to the power mix. Scalable electricity production from wind and solar energy faces tremendous challenges due to system integration practices in ASEAN. Investors in solar or wind farms face high risks from electricity curtailment if surplus electricity is not used. Technologies for battery storage (lithium-ion batteries) have been developed to handle surplus electricity production from wind and solar energy but they remain costly. Hydrogen produced from electrolysis using surplus electricity, however, has numerous advantages that complement battery storage, as hydrogen can be stored as liquid gas, which is suitable for many uses and easy to transport. Employing the policy scenario analysis of the energy outlook modelling results, this paper examines the potential scalability of renewable hydrogen production from curtailed electricity in scenarios of high share of variable renewable energy in the power generation mix. The study intensively reviewed potential cost reduction of hydrogen production around the world and its implications for changing the energy landscape. The study found many social and environmental benefits as hydrogen can help increase the share of renewables in decarbonising emissions in ASEAN.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Science and Technology, Renewable Energy, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:
ASEAN