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12. The geopolitics of the European Green Deal
- Author:
- Mark Leonard, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Jeremy Shapiro, Simone Tagliapietra, and Guntram Wolff
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- The European Green Deal will have profound geopolitical repercussions, some of which are likely to have an adverse impact on the European Union’s partners. The EU should prepare to manage these repercussions in its relationships with important countries in its neighbourhood such as Russia and Algeria, and with global players such as the United States, China, and Saudi Arabia. The bloc should engage with oil- and gas-exporting countries to foster their economic diversification, including into renewable energy and green hydrogen that could be exported to Europe. The EU should improve the supply security of critical raw materials and limit its dependence on other countries – primarily on China – for these materials. It should work with the US and other partners to establish a ‘climate club’ whose members would apply similar carbon border adjustment measures. The EU should become a global standard-setter for the energy transition, particularly in hydrogen and green bonds. It should internationalise the European Green Deal by mobilising the EU budget, the EU recovery fund, and EU development policy. The EU should promote global coalitions for climate change mitigation, such as one to protect the permafrost. The bloc should promote a global platform on the new economics of climate action, to share lessons learned and best practice.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Climate Change, European Union, Geopolitics, and Green Deal
- Political Geography:
- Europe
13. A green fiscal pact: climate investment in times of budget consolidation
- Author:
- Zsolt Darvas and Guntram Wolff
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- The additional public investment need required to meet the European Union’s climate goals is between 0.5 percent and 1 percent of GDP annually during this decade. Increasing green public investment while consolidating deficits will be a major challenge. While our simulations show that budget consolidation can be done at a moderate pace in line with EU rules if those rules are interpreted flexibly, past consolidation episodes resulted in major public investment cuts. This time, there is a need for a major increase in investment. A ‘green golden rule’ (excluding net green investment from the fiscal indicators used to measure fiscal rule compliance) is the most promising option to address this tension. Relaxing the strictness of the EU fiscal framework beyond its existing flexibility and the proposed green golden rule does not appear necessary in the next few years. The uncertain growth impact of green public spending and the risks to growth from climate change create difficult trade offs in fiscally weaker countries. In any case, better regulatory policy and a higher price on emissions should incentivise private green investment and reduce public costs. These ingredients should be combined to form a ‘green fiscal pact’.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Budget, European Union, and Public Investment
- Political Geography:
- Europe
14. Can climate change be tackled without ditching economic growth?
- Author:
- Guntram Wolff, Simone Tagliapietra, and Klaas Lenaerts
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- Higher levels of economic activity tend to go hand-in-hand with additional energy use and consumption of natural resources. As fossil fuels still account for 80 percent of the global energy mix, energy consumption remains closely related to greenhouse gas emissions and hence to climate forcing. This paper explores whether decarbonisation and economic growth are compatible or whether the world economy needs to grow less to be able to reduce greenhouse gas emissions fast enough to reach net zero in 2050. The literature provides profoundly different answers to this question, with scholars positioning along a spectrum that extends from the most optimist version of ‘green growth’ theories to sceptical ‘degrowth’ theories. While globally, CO2 emissions per unit of GDP are declining, the decoupling rate from 1995 to 2018 was only -1.8 percent annually. To achieve net zero by 2050, the rate would have to accelerate to -8.7 percent, assuming population and GDP growth projections as given, or by a factor of almost five. To keep GDP growth and population at their projections and thus reject the proposition of de-growth, decoupling would have to accelerate massively. Two avenues are crucial: reducing the energy intensity of production and/or the emissions intensity of energy. The huge fall in the price of renewable energy provides hope that decoupling can accelerate. Decoupling rates have accelerated in the last decade and decoupling is substantially faster in the European Union. In the EU, we estimate that decoupling only has to accelerate by a factor of 2.5. We do not think degrowth propositions advanced in the literature will be pursued and therefore focus on the main challenges that must be tackled to achieve decoupling. Unprecedented efforts are required to achieve green growth. But hoping for humanity to sacrifice growth appears unrealistic.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economic Growth, Fossil Fuels, Carbon Emissions, and Decarbonization
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
15. Europe in a new world order
- Author:
- Maria Demertzis, André Sapir, and Guntram Wolff
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- The United States is the European Union’s most important trade and bilateral investment partner, which has, until now, supported a multilateral trade system and European integration and has provided a security guarantee to the countries of the EU. But like other advanced economies, the US’s relative weight in the global economy has declined. The new US administration seems intent on replacing multilateralism with bilateral deals. In trade, it aims to secure new trade deals in order to reduce bilateral trade deficits and to protect, in particular, the US manufacturing sector. In climate policy, the US commitment to the Paris Agreement is being questioned. In defence, the security umbrella appears less certain than previously. The overall promise behind this change of direction is to put ‘America first’ and deliver better results for US citizens.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Multilateral Relations, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- Europe and United States of America
16. Is Brexit an opportunity to reform the European Parliament?
- Author:
- Robert Kalcik and Guntram Wolff
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- Brexit offers a political opportunity for the European Parliament to reform the allocation of seats to member states. This Policy Contribution explores different options for reform and their implications for equality of representation and distribution of seats to countries, within the constraints set by the EU treaties.
- Topic:
- International Organization, International Affairs, Political Theory, European Union, Democracy, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- Europe