Author: Guillermo Falcone / Political Geography: South America

Author:: Andrés César and Guillermo Falcone
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: We study the causal impact of export growth on Chilean local economic development during 2000–2006 by exploiting spatial and temporal variations in local exposure stemming from the interaction of past differences in industry specialization across local labor markets and the evolution of tariffs cuts and exports across industries. We find that growing exports implied a significant reduction in labor informality and labor income gains in more exposed local markets, driven by job creation and wage growth in the formal sector. These effects concentrate on senior skilled workers. Exposed locations also exhibit a greater relative decline in the poverty rate.
Topic:: Poverty, Employment, Economic Growth, Tariffs, Exports, Economic Development, Labor Market, Wages, and Informality
Political Geography:: South America and Chile

Author:: Andrés César, Matias Ciaschi, Guillermo Falcone, and Guido Neidhöfer
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper investigates whether the impact of trade shocks on employment and wages persists across generations. Using an instrumental variable strategy on survey data with retrospective information on parental employment, we study the consequences of increased Chinese import competition in Brazilian industries on individuals with differently exposed fathers. Results show that several years after the shock, children of more exposed fathers have lower education and earnings, lower chances of formal jobs, and are more likely to rely on social assistance. These effects are substantial for children from disadvantaged background, indicating that the shock had a negative impact on intergenerational mobility.
Topic:: Trade, Imports, Economic Competition, and Social Mobility
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

Author:: Andres Cesar, Guillermo Falcone, and Leonardo Gasparini
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: We study Chile’s labor market responses to trade shocks during 1996-2006, exploiting spatial and time variations in trade exposure arising from initial differences in industry specialization across local labor markets and the evolution of shocks across industries. We take advantage of China’s supply and demand’s worldwide shocks to instrument for Chinese import competition and demand for Chilean exports. Our main finding is that increasing manufacturing import competition implied a significant rise in labor informality in more exposed local markets, especially among young and unskilled workers. These groups also suffered significant relative wage losses. Meanwhile, locations that benefited most from the increased demand for primary products experienced a relative increase in employment, particularly among young individuals, and reallocation from self-employment towards salaried jobs in the formal sector, along with relative wage gains among old-age workers. Interestingly, these areas experienced a smaller increase in tertiary education enrollment rates than less exposed areas.
Topic:: Employment, Trade, Labor Market, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:: South America and Chile

Author:: Leonardo Gasparini, Irene Brambilla, Guillermo Falcone, Carlo Lombardo, and Andres Cesar
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: We study changes in employment by occupations characterized by different degree of exposure to routinization in the six largest Latin American economies over the last two decades. We combine our own indicators of routine task content based on information from the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIACC) with labor market microdata from harmonized national household surveys. We find that the increase in jobs was decreasing in the automatability of the tasks typically performed in each occupation, and increasing in the initial wage, a pattern more consistent with the traditional skill-biased technological change than with the polarization hypothesis.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Employment, Automation, and Job Creation
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and North America

Author:: Guillermo Falcone and Carlo Lombardo
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: In this paper we characterize workers’ vulnerability to automation in the near future in Argentina as a function of the exposure to routinization of the tasks that they perform and the potential automation of their occupation. In order to do that we combine (i) indicators of potential automatability by occupation and (ii) worker’s information on occupation and other labor variables. We find that the ongoing process of automation is likely to significantly affect the structure of employment. In particular, unskilled and semi-skilled workers are likely to bear a disproportionate share of the adjustment costs. Automation will probably be a more dangerous threat for equality than for overall employment.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Employment, Inequality, Job Creation, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

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