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Begin New Search Political Geography Middle East Author Graeme P. Herd

1. The Great Arab Revolution: Challenges, Dilemmas and Opportunities?

Author:
Graeme P. Herd
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Beyond noting the fluidity, ambiguity and ambivalence associated with the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, there is little consensus on causes and likely consequences. Do these geopolitical earthquakes constitute an “Arab Spring” leading to transition democratization, akin to 1989 in Central and Eastern Europe? Or should we look to 1979 in Iran, and the prospect of Sunni rather than Shia theocracy taking hold? Might the wider Muslim world – Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan and Turkey – provide alternative potential governance models for the MENA region, given indigenous variants appear exhausted and no longer able to self-reproduce? What are the lessons which other MENA incumbent regimes and the international community will identify? How might those lessons be learned?
Topic:
Democratization, Regime Change, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Indonesia, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

2. The Arab Spring: Challenges, Obstacles and Dilemmas

Author:
Graeme P. Herd
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
On the twentieth anniversary of the fall of the Soviet Union, long-standing authoritarian regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen have fallen, Libya is in the fi nal stages of a civil war that toppled the forty-year rule of Muammar Gaddafi , and the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria may be tottering on the brink of implosion. Through 2011, demonstrations in Bahrain and Iran have been met with force, while Morocco, Jordan, Djibouti, Iraq, Oman, and Algeria have all reported protests. The Arab Spring has not been confi ned to the Middle East and North Africa; rather, its effects have gone global, with analysts drawing attention to its ripples, ramifi cations, and the potential of "revolutionary contagion" through the greater Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa, Russia and Eurasia, as well as China and East and South East Asia. Although there is broad agreement among experts and commentators who have studied the Arab Spring itself as to the scale and importance of revolutionary change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, its causes are contested, and there is little consensus as to its likely consequences and strategic effects. As Prince Hassan of Jordan noted, "The outcome of this tectonic realignment is not just unpredictable, but unknowable.
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Eurasia, Middle East, Libya, Soviet Union, Arabia, North Africa, Egypt, and Tunisia