Author: Georg Strüver / Topic: Natural Resources

Author:: Tim Wegenast and Georg Strüver
Publication Date:: 04-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: According to conventional wisdom, strategic natural resources like oil are harmful to international peace. Nonetheless, there is little empirical quantitative work on the link between resource abundance and interstate conflicts. Analyzing the impact of oil on militarized interstate disputes on a monadic level of analysis, this paper shows that oil in fact influences the conflict potential between countries. Results of logistic regressions suggest that a high absolute oil production is associated with an increased risk of dispute initiation. Per capita oil production, in contrast, does not seem to influence a country's propensity to start militarized conflicts. We also find that while very small oil-rich countries are more frequently the object of military actions, large oil producers seem to be generally spared from foreign attacks. We conclude that specific causal mechanisms such as an increased military capacity or the indulgence of the international community (rather than domestic political conditions inherent to the rentier state) might be particularly useful to explain our findings.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Oil, War, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: Russia and Georgia

Author:: Miriam Shabafrouz, Annegret Mähler, and Georg Strüver
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: Natural resources are often held responsible for intrastate conflicts. As a consequence, both national and international measures to avoid the detrimental impact of resource endowments have increasingly been discussed and implemented in resource-rich countries. These measures include stabilization funds, subregional development programs, revenue-sharing regimes, and transparency initiatives. However, comparative empirical studies of the actual impact of these measures, particularly regarding their contribution to conflict prevention, are scarce. This paper contributes to the filling of this gap: combining a medium-N sample of oildependent countries and three in-depth case studies (Algeria, Nigeria, and Venezuela), we evaluate different instruments of resource management and their effects on conflict risk factors. On the one hand, the findings do not show any systematic connection between the countermeasures and a reduction in resource-related risks; on the other, the paper highlights common causal factors for the lack of implementation of resource-related countermeasures.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Development, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: Africa, Algeria, Latin America, Venezuela, and Nigeria

Author:: Georg Strüver
Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: International conflicts over natural resources are frequently cited as the most prominent threat to global peace in the decades ahead. However, this subject has not yet been adequately tackled in the academic literature. This paper contributes to filling the gap by, first, proposing a four-class typology of resource conflicts and by, second, testing these conflict types against data on fossil fuels and interstate conflicts derived from two major conflict datasets: the Militarized Interstate Dispute Dataset (1960–2001) and the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflicts Dataset (1960–2008). The findings, although preliminary, suggest that resource scarcity may play a less prominent role in the aggression of belligerent countries than is often assumed and that the existence of large oil deposits and high resource-rent incomes are better predictors of conflict involvement.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Oil, Armed Struggle, and Natural Resources

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