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1. The Economics of Inaction on Climate Change: A Sensitivity Analysis

Author:
Frank Ackerman and Ian J. Finlayson
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
Economic models of climate change often take the problem seriously, but paradoxically conclude that the optimal policy is to do almost nothing about it. We explore this paradox as seen in the widely used DICE model. Three aspects of that model, involving the discount rate, the assumed benefits of moderate warming, and the treatment of the latest climate science, are sufficient to explain the timidity of the model's optimal policy recommendation. With modifications to those three points, DICE shows that the optimal policy is a much higher and rapidly rising marginal carbon price; that higher carbon price has a greater effect on physical measures of climate impacts. Our modifications exhibit nonlinear interactions; at least at low discount rates, there is synergy between individual changes to the model. At low discount rates, the inherent uncertainty about future damages looms larger in the analysis, rendering long-run economic modeling less useful.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, and Environment

2. Can Climate Change Save Lives? A comment on "Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: Human health"

Author:
Frank Ackerman and Elizabeth Stanton
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
In a recent article in this journal, Francesco Bosello, Roberto Roson, and Richard Tol make the surprising prediction that the first stages of global warming will, on balance, save a large number of lives. Bosello et al. fail to substantiate this remarkable estimate, and they make multiple mistaken or misleading assumptions. They rely on research that identifies a simple empirical relationship between temperature and mortality, but ignores the countervailing effect of human adaptation to gradual changes in average temperature. While focusing on small changes in average temperatures, they ignore the important health impacts of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, floods, and hurricanes. They extrapolate this pattern far beyond the level that is apparently supported by their principal sources, and introduce an arbitrary assumption that may bias the result toward finding benefits from warming.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, and Environment
Political Geography:
San Francisco

3. Free Trade, Corn, and the Environment: Environmental Impacts of US - Mexico Corn Trade Under NAFTA

Author:
Frank Ackerman, Kevin Gallagher, Timothy Wise, Luke Ney, and Regina Flores
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) had a profound impact on corn trade between the United States and Mexico. Negotiated tariff reductions and the Mexican government's decision not to charge some tariffs to which it was entitled resulted in a doubling of US corn exports to Mexico. This paper examines the environmental implications of this change on both sides of the border.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
North America and Mexico

4. Economic Analysis in Environmental Reviews of Trade Agreements: Assessing the North American Experience

Author:
Frank Ackerman, Kevin Gallagher, and Luke Ney
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
Beginning in the late 1990s, Canada and the United States began requiring "Environmental Reviews (ERs)" of all trade agreements to be negotiated by each government. This paper, commissioned by the North American Commission for Environmental Cooperation, outlines how ERs have evolved in North America, and evaluates the different methodological approaches that have been employed in ERs thus far. We show that the ERs conducted to date have an encouraging number of strengths that can be built upon. However, we also establish that the art of conducting ERs is still in its infancy. We identify four limitations with the methodological approaches that have been employed in the most recent ERs. Based on an analysis of these limitations, we propose four ways to improve how ERs are conducted in the future.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
North America

5. Trade Liberalization and Pollution Intensive Industry in Developing Countries: A Partial Equilibrium Approach

Author:
Frank Ackerman and Kevin Gallagher
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
Economic theory suggests that liberalization of trade between countries with differing levels of environmental protection could lead pollution-intensive industry to concentrate in the nations where regulations are lax. This effect, often referred to as the "pollution haven" hypothesis, is much discussed in theory, but finds only ambiguous support in empirical research to date. Methodologies used for research on trade and environment differ widely; many are difficult to apply to practical policy questions.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Environment, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance