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1. Urgent Messages: Assessing the influence of the US-France-Saudi statement on Lebanon holding timely elections

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The foreign ministers of the United States, France and Saudi Arabia, on September 21, issued a joint statement expressing their support for Lebanon. In the statement issued after representatives of the three countries met on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly, expressed their continuing support for Lebanon’s sovereignty, security, and stability. They stressed upon the importance of holding timely elections in compliance with the constitution to choose a new president and form a new government capable of implementing the structural and economic reforms, urgently needed to address Lebanon’s political and economic crises, specifically those reforms needed to reach an agreement with the International Monetary Fund. In the statement, the three countries further expressed willingness to work jointly with Lebanon to support the implementation of these fundamental reform measures, which are critical to the country’s future prosperity, stability, and security. The three countries acknowledged the critical role the Lebanese Armed Forces and the Internal Security Forces – as the legitimate defenders of Lebanon’s sovereignty and internal stability – continue to play in protecting the Lebanese people in a time of unprecedented crisis. They affirmed the need for the Lebanese government to implement the provisions of UN Security Council resolutions 1559, 1680, 1701, 2650, and other relevant international resolutions, including those issued by the Arab League, and commit to the Taif Agreement which enables the preservation of national unity and civil peace in Lebanon.
Topic:
Reform, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East, France, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and United States of America

2. Divergent Views: Tunisian President’s prospects for passing the new constitution

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Tunisian President Kais Saied, on June 20, received a new draft constitution written by Sadok Belaid, Coordinator of the High National Advisory Committee for New Republic. The draft was not final as some chapters were reviewed and amended before it was published in the official gazette on June 30. The draft new constitution will be put to a referendum on July 25.
Topic:
Reform, Constitution, Domestic Politics, and Kais Saied
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

3. Ousting Ennahda: Will Kais Saied's decisions help solve the crisis in Tunisia?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On the Tunisia’s 64th Republic Day -Sunday, July 25, 2021- the so-called 25 July Movement called for massive protests all over the country. Consequently, many responded and started protesting in Bardo Square, near the parliament, in the capital Tunis. The protests soon spread across other governorates, such as Sousse, the coastal governorate, Sfax (in the south), and El-Kef (in the northwest). In response, President Kais Saied announced, on July 26, 2021, the dismissal of Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi and his cabinet, which consisted of 25 ministries. Saied decided to take charge of executive power until he chooses another politician to form a new government. He further suspended the current parliament and lifted the parliamentary immunity of all its members. Besides, he decided to rule by issuing decrees instead of the laws, which the parliament was supposed to pass. These decisions were announced after the emergency meeting that was chaired by president Saied, and attended by military leaders and security officials on the day the protests and rallies broke out. The protesters demanded reforming the economy, combatting corruption and terrorism, dismissing the Mechichi cabinet, and dissolving the parliament.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Reform, Crisis Management, and Ennahda Party
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

4. Proceeding with Reform: Disclosing the reasons behind the Tunisian President’s decision to extend the exceptional measures

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On August 23, 2021, Tunisian president Kais Saied issued a presidential decree extending the exceptional measures of the 80th decree (July 25, 2021), whereby parliamentary activities were suspended and immunity on MPs were lifted until further notice. Saied extended these measures just one day before they were supposed to come to an end, as the 80th decree was supposed to be in effect for only one month.
Topic:
Reform, Democracy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

5. Possible Escalation: No Love Lost between Erdogan and Turkish Opposition

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Turkish opposition pledged to take down President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the June 2023 elections and to restore the parliamentary system. Meral Akşener, leader of the Iyi (Good) Party, promised that the next president will be from the Nation Alliance consisting of her party and the Republican People’s Party ((CHP) - the biggest opposition party in Turkey). It is noteworthy that the Turkish opposition won the 2019 municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara by following the same strategy of alliances.
Topic:
Reform, Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Escalation
Political Geography:
Turkey

6. A Possible Downfall: The implications of the mass resignations within the Ennahda movement in Tunisia

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Eighteen members of the Ennahda Movement, the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, submitted their collective resignations from the movement’s membership on September 26, 2021, just only three days after 113 others have resigned as well. This brings the total number of members who resigned in two days to 131 members. This is a significant indication of the intensifying disputes and divisions within the movement following the Tunisian President’s announcement of exceptional measures in the country on July 25, 2021.
Topic:
Reform, Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Ennahda Party
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

7. The 2004 Recurrence: The Impact of Escalation on the Domestic Political Equilibrium in Iran

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The Conservative Fundamentalist movement in Iran, directly linked to the Republic’s Supreme Leader and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), is apparently heading towards achieving a significant win in the parliamentary elections due to take place on February 21, 2020. This will play a pivotal role in mapping out political forces within the country before the presidential elections of next year, which the Conservatives might also seize from the moderate stream. The Conservatives are trying to take advantage of the heated political dynamics by using the current escalation with the US, after the murder of Qassem Soleimani, leader of ‘the Quds Force’, the rising possibilities of the failure of the nuclear agreement, and the referral of the Iranian case back to the Security Council, all for the sake of boosting their chances of taking control over the Regime’s center of authority.
Topic:
Government, Reform, Elections, and Conservatism
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East