Author: Ellie Geranmayeh - CIAO Search Results

Author:: Ellie Geranmayeh
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council On Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Europeans wish to persuade Iran to compromise on strategic issues – but, unless they understand the dynamics of domestic Iranian politics, they will not get far. Three main power blocs compete to influence Iran’s supreme leader, including the ‘modernisers’, who were instrumental in building the case internally for the nuclear deal. The US ‘maximum pressure’ campaign has placed them on the back foot. Improving the economy remains the most pressing issue in Iran. Without a Western economic offer, the other two power blocs – the conservative ‘Principlists’ and IRGC-linked ‘securocrats’ – will continue their recent ascendancy and press for a confrontational ‘maximum resistance’ response. Immediately after the US presidential election, Europeans should embark on shuttle diplomacy with Washington and Tehran to agree an interim deal on the nuclear issue. This could also strengthen modernisers ahead of Iran’s own presidential race in 2021.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

Author:: Ellie Geranmayeh and Manuel Lafont Rapnouil
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council On Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Secondary sanctions have become a critical challenge for Europe, due to the Trump administration’s maximalist policy on Iran and its aggressive economic statecraft. Europe’s vulnerabilities mostly result from asymmetric interdependence with the US economy, due to the size of US markets and the global role of the US dollar. In future, states will likely weaponise economic interdependence with the EU to target countries that are more important to the European economy than Iran, such as China and Russia. European countries should demonstrate that, despite their economic interdependence with the US, they control EU foreign policy. The EU and its member states should strengthen their sanctions policy, begin to build up their deterrence and resilience against secondary sanctions, and prepare to adopt asymmetric countermeasures against any country that harms European interests through secondary sanctions. They should also attempt to bolster the global role of the euro and lead a robust international dialogue on the role of sanctions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sanctions, European Union, Economy, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Iran, North America, and United States of America

Author:: Hayder al-Khoei, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Mattia Toaldo
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council On Foreign Relations
Abstract:: ISIS has suffered significant setbacks in both Iraq and Libya with the battles for Mosul and Sirte representing potential turning-points. • Without a clear political strategy to guide post- ISIS efforts, these military gains could quickly be lost. Both countries could again become breeding grounds for conflict and extremism, exacerbating European security and migration challenges. This risk is especially high for Iraq given the conflict in neighbouring Syria. • The new US administration is likely to invest less energy than its predecessors in strengthening political orders which provide stability. European states must step up their own efforts
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East and Global Focus

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