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1. The Helmand Food Zone: The Illusion of Success

Author:
David Mansfield
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
This study documents how the Helmand Food Zone was developed, its origins and architects, as well as the different actors involved in the implementation and the subsequent challenges of delivery. Initially presented as a drug control project, the Helmand Food Zone came to be accredited for supporting stabilisation and governance in the Helmand province between 2008 and 2012. Driven by political demands rather than evidence, the program became a flagship in Helmand, and lauded as a success, despite evidence to the contrary. The study builds on in-depth fieldwork and high-resolution satellite imagery collected before, during and after the implementation of the Helmand Food Zone, as well as interviews with some of the main protagonists in the donor community. In total, 4,122 household interviews took place with farmers over an 11-year period in either all or some of the 28 research sites in Helmand province, in areas both north and south of the Boghra canal. The latest body of fieldwork was conducted in spring 2018 and consisted of 310 interviews in the same research sites, supplemented with a further 52 interviews with women who resided in former desert areas.
Topic:
Food, Governance, Women, and Drugs
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

2. The Sun Cannot be Hidden by Two fingers: Illicit Drugs and the Discussions on a Political Settlement in Afghanistan

Author:
David Mansfield
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
An issue largely ignored in the current debates on peace and reconciliation is that of illegal drugs production. Drawing on the authors long term research in Afghanistan the paper analyses the role that illicit drugs and the monies they generate play in the conflict. It should not be forgotten that illicit drugs production and trade is currently the largest single economic sector in Afghanistan. Opium poppy is the country’s most valuable cash crop worth US$863 million4 and employs more people than any other industry in Afghanistan, over 500,000 Full Time Equivalent. The crop occupied an estimated 263,000 hectares of land in 2018; three times more land than it did in 2000 when the Taliban imposed an outright ban. Conservative estimates suggest that opiates alone made up more than 10 percent of Gross Domestic Product in 2018 and that over US$ 40 million in taxes were earned by different armed groups along the value-chain. Given the economic and political importance of the illicit drugs economy in Afghanistan it is unwise to assume the problem away or look to resolve it with wishful and simplistic policy responses - or as the Afghan proverb says the sun cannot be hidden by two fingers.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Conflict, Peace, Drugs, Trade, Illegal Trade, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

3. Moving with the Times: How Opium Poppy Cultivation has Adapted to the Changing Environment in Afghanistan

Author:
David Mansfield and Paul Fishstein
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
This “watching brief” has described a number of trends with respect to agriculture, land settlement, and opium poppy in several areas of Afghanistan. It highlights two separate but highly related issues. First, what will be farmers’ response to changes in technology and agro-economic conditions? While cost-reducing technology such as solar-powered tubewells may allow the cultivation of crops with lower returns than that of opium poppy, will farmers choose to grow these crops or will they stay with poppy? Will they even look to cultivate a second crop of opium poppy in May as some reports from the field suggest? Second, while the new technology has allowed the expansion of agricultural production to former desert areas and supported livelihoods for marginalised households, given Afghanistan’s tenuous water resources (leaving aside climate change) and population growth rate, how sustainable is an agriculture that continues to deplete groundwater resources by allowing their use on an essentially “free” basis?
Topic:
Agriculture, Science and Technology, Water, Drugs, and Farming
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

4. Eyes Wide Shut: Counter-Narcotics in Transition

Author:
David Mansfield and Paul Fishstein
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
It is now clear that the production and trade of opiates will have a significant influence on not only the economic, political and security landscape, but even the physical terrain of post-Transition Afghanistan. Levels of opium poppy cultivation are already rising; estimated cultivated area rose by 18 percent in 2012 and is likely to rise significantly over the next few years. And this trend may intensify further as politico-military actors make deals and form coalitions in response to the 2014 handover of security responsibility from the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) to the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF).
Topic:
NATO, International Cooperation, Drugs, Trade, and Illegal Trade
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

5. Where Have all the Flowers Gone? Assessing the Sustainability of Current Reductions in Opium Poppy Cultivation

Author:
David Mansfield
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
Levels of opium poppy cultivation have fallen in Afghanistan for two consecutive years and it now appears that cultivation will be maintained at this relatively low level for another year. This briefing paper examines the reasons behind the reductions and assesses their sustainability, with special emphasis on the key provinces of Nangarhar and Helmand. It identifies instability and drops in livelihood standards caused by coercive reductions in opium poppy cultivation, and finds that increasing levels of wheat production do not reflect a sustainable shift from opium production, but instead are a sign of market failure, growing concerns over food security, and coercion.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Food, Rural, Drugs, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

6. Counter-Narcotics in Afghanistan: The Failure of Success?

Author:
David Mansfield and Adam Pain
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
The briefing paper argues that to truly understand what will create sustainable change in the Afghan opium industry, observers need to improve the tools being used to measure the success of counter-narcotics efforts. Measuring opium poppy-cultivated area serves as one of the few—and, in some cases, the only—means of gauging counter-narcotics success or failure. But relying on this indicator alone will not give policymakers an accurate sense of what drives opium poppy cultivation or what will sustainably reduce it. Until new indicators can inform counter-narcotic policy, perceptions of “failure” or “success” will likely continue to focus on short-term fixes rather than reach the root of the problem with long-term solutions. The paper concludes that a number of other indicators should be studied to improve policy concerning opium, including: incomes, physical security, food security, commodity markets and cropping system diversification. It also offers viable suggestions for ways to measure these markers of success or failure.
Topic:
Security, Drugs, Trade, Sustainability, and Farming
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

7. Evidence from the Field: Understanding Changing Levels of Opium Poppy Cultivation in Afghanistan

Author:
David Mansfield and Adam Pain
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
For many rural households the cultivation of opium poppy represents the key means by which they can achieve welfare under the conditions of pervasive risk and insecurity in Afghanistan. This briefing paper argues that understanding changing levels of opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan requires recognition of the multifunctional role of opium poppy cultivation in the livelihoods of rural Afghan households.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Rural, Drugs, and Farming
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

8. Alternative Livelihoods: Substance or Slogan?

Author:
David Mansfield and Adam Pain
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
This briefing paper examines what is needed to effectively pursue alternative livelihoods as a goal of counter-narcotics, and argues for conventional development interventions to be viewed through a counter-narcotics lens to establish how they impact on opium poppy cultivation.
Topic:
Agriculture, Drugs, Illegal Trade, and Farming
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East