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Begin New Search Political Geography Europe Author David Henig

1. Negotiating Uncertainty in UK-EU Relations: Past, Present, and Future

Author:
David Henig
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Ten key points to negotiating the UK-EU relationship: Europe has been weakened by difficult UK-EU relations at a time of international challenge. Eight years after the Brexit referendum a new UK government and European Commission provides a good opportunity to reset approaches and put obstructions aside. Too big for either side to ignore, this will always be an important, time-consuming, and slightly chaotic relationship – which thus needs a much firmer footing based on the following shared understanding: Probably the broadest, deepest bilateral relationship in the world, adding the world’s second largest trade flow to integrated neighbourhood challenges, meaning inevitable complexity and ongoing negotiation of many different topics. This has been insufficiently recognised, and should ideally be considered jointly, e.g. in terms of a shared vision, road map, scoping, implementation, otherwise even agreeing sequencing will always be problematic; Wide scope, with inevitable challenges and tensions, requiring regular senior-level contact, this should start with annual summits that develop mutual understanding, supported by regular meetings between UK Ministers and Commissioners, senior official meetings, and the sharing of information at expert level. There should not be a single undertaking negotiation; Divorce taking time to overcome, emotions on both sides are settling but still livelier than normal between nominal allies, with many involved who would simply like the unattainable return to the pre-2016 state, and others just as strongly opposed in various ways; EU needs to be less rigid given the UK will not neatly fit into existing models, there being too many mutual interests, from which will flow multiple arrangements and deals. Showing greater willing to a now more constructive counterpart means creativity in how to structure the relationship to deliver mutual interests as well as specific asks of both sides; Negotiations must informally include many actors, such as businesses, civil society, lower-level governments, academics, listening to whom should be the basis for the UK and EU shaping mutually acceptable deals. All of these stakeholders will equally have to learn to live with the uncertainty and difficulties of an ongoing relationship with multiple strands; UK previously a naïve negotiator failing to understand this collaborative yet still competitive, and increasingly public, nature of modern trade negotiations, or its new third country status. Positive signs of learning shown with the Windsor Framework should be developed – to include ‘Team UK’ negotiating, openly testing ideas with specialists, and understanding the EU, importance of trust in implementation, and limits of taking back control; Northern Ireland will always require special handling as a part of the UK whose peace process requires strong relations with the rest of the country and the EU. Ambiguity and flexibility will continue to be needed; There is no perfect model for future UK-EU relations, all potential options having drawbacks rendering them somewhat unstable, and no swift negotiating path to most of them. While the UK is not a member of the EU there will always be barriers to trade and movement of people which both sides with their priorities will aim to discuss, negotiate, and seek to ease; Public communications and understanding around the relationship must be improved, whether that is in terms of negotiating progress, realistic options for both sides, care with overly-simplistic messaging, or particular terminology with often multiple meanings; Despite uncertainty there will be a steady move towards deeper, more robust arrangements, since both UK and EU have strong interests in making these happen, but this will not be a quick or steady process, instead it will come from considerable engagement, flexibility, and patience, to create something that is tolerable if always slightly sub-optimal.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, European Union, Regional Integration, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

2. Building a Mature UK Trade Policy

Author:
David Henig
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Global Britain has not delivered according to the hopes expressed by supporters of leaving the EU. Trade with the rest of the world has not grown to make up for leaving a bloc with seamless trade, early Free Trade Agreements with Australia and New Zealand are of minor economic significance, and it is hard to discern much of a strategy beyond completing a few more similar deals. Meanwhile the world of trade policy is transformed since 2016, negatively. The US has essentially declared its national interests to be more important than global rules, while the EU wants to act unilaterally as the global regulator. In both, the climate crisis is being used as an excuse to reintroduce protectionist measures threatening economic damage and global stability. Expectations of what a UK outside of the EU could achieve were exaggerated, but nonetheless the country could be doing a lot better in its trade policy. There is no good reason for such tensions as exist with a broad range of frustrated stakeholders, the absence of clear purpose on UK strengths such as services, or the defensiveness that seemingly takes pride in secrecy and resistance to proper scrutiny. Adjustment time was inevitable, but six years should have been enough.
Topic:
Economics, European Union, Free Trade, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

3. Prosperity and Resilience: Diverse Production and Comparative Advantage in Modern Economies

Author:
David Henig and Anna Guildea
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
A common version of trade theory suggests that countries will specialise in a limited number of products. Using the example of David Ricardo from 1817, England specialises in cloth and Portugal in producing wine – and then they trade with each other to mutual benefit. However, this is a crude version of comparative advantage that routinely leads to political concerns about trade. Today the prime concern is that Europe and other developed countries have become too dependent on China by allowing the logic of comparative advantage to work. In short, trade has made us vulnerable. The observed reality is different. Most advanced economies produce and export a broad range of goods and services. Their governments have similar aspirations to develop and support diverse manufacturing and services, including in the most traded global sectors such as pharmaceuticals, automotive, business services, and food and drink. Modern specialisation comes in countries producing various, but not all, products within global supply chains. Patterns of trade suggest such specialisation has allowed countries to both grow and become resilient to individual shocks. Knowledge and ownership of the whole supply chain is more important than producing everything.
Topic:
Globalization, Economy, Services, Resilience, WTO, and Production
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

4. Time for Fresh Thinking on Northern Ireland and Brexit

Author:
David Henig
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
The Good Friday / Belfast Agreement became, with considerable efforts over several years from so many involved, a broadly accepted if never fully stable political framework for Northern Ireland. A year after implementation, the prospect of the Northern Ireland Protocol delivering similar results is diminishing. Instead, there is a risk it entrenches divisions in which all sides believe others, not themselves, must be the ones to compromise most. Such divisions around the Protocol have spread beyond the land and sea borders of Northern Ireland, increasingly overshadowing relationships between the UK and the EU, and the UK and the US. These are not in any of their wider interests. Talk of trade wars in Europe cannot strengthen any economy, while the UK’s diplomatic relationships with the US remain strained. Finding unity on huge questions like Russia-Ukraine becomes harder against this backdrop. To varying degrees, all of the parties involved in the Northern Ireland Protocol discussions were involved in reaching the 1998 Agreement that ended the 30-year period known as ‘the troubles’. Drawing on the lessons from that time and the arrangements they put in place, there is a need for a new political process, outside of technical discussions on trade matters within the Protocol. A new shared endeavour is needed to resolve what otherwise threatens to be a long and damaging Northern Ireland and Brexit stalemate.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Brexit, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Northern Ireland

5. The Future of EU Leadership in the Car Industry: Still Global

Author:
David Henig and Hosuk Lee-Makiyama
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Automotive is Europe’s key export industry, an important contributor to the EU economy, from balance of payments to employment, and a manufacturing base to global and European brands; Balancing the EU’s climate ambitions (and its implied economic transformation) with a successful EU car industry is therefore crucially important. The car industry is at the forefront of new initiatives to tackle the climate emergency, shaped by these new regulations its products and infrastructure will be radically different in just a few years; Proposals within EU frameworks such as Green Deal, Fit for 55, and Next Generation EU are about reducing emissions and reshaping industry. Yet, the policy mix also leans towards increased regulatory costs and loss of competitiveness that can only be partially offset by climate subsidies and import substitution; This cumulation of measures also carries significant risk of retaliation from our key export markets for the car industry. In particular, attempts to apply green regulation extraterritorially are seen as provocative by third countries and unlikely to be accepted without response; Since the EU is the world’s largest exporter of passenger cars, it has most to lose if the global economy regresses into protected markets. Open global supply chains also enable EU manufacturing to retain competitiveness, and has also helped to keep the component and services portion of the industry going despite a relative decline of demand in motor vehicles in the EU; Consumer support for Green Deal initiatives will be lost if there are no affordable and sustainable alternatives for personal mobility – which also requires open markets. Thus, cars play a significant role in sustaining both EU macroeconomic stability and support for the Green Deal; The Green Deal and an open economy must not become a binary choice for Europe. The automotive industry is today global, digitised and electrified by default. The EU cannot mass-produce locally unless it can also compete globally – which entails facilitating industry transition, minimising retaliatory risks and understanding the biggest transition the industry is facing since Henry Ford’s invention of the assembly line.
Topic:
Globalization, European Union, WTO, Green Deal, and Automotive Industry
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus