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2. What lessons from the 1930s?
- Author:
- Daniel Gros and Cinzia Alcidi
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper explores three areas in which the experience of the Great Depression might be relevant today: monetary policy, fiscal policy and the systemic stability of the banking system. We confirm the consensus on monetary policy: deflation must be avoided. With regard to fiscal policy, the picture is less clear. We cannot confirm a widespread opinion according to which fiscal policy did not work because it was not tried. We find that fiscal policy went to the limit of what was possible within the confines of sustainability, as they existed then. Our investigation of the US banking system shows a surprising resilience of the sector: commercial banking operations (deposit-taking and lending) remained profitable even during the worst years. This suggests one policy conclusion: At present the authorities in both the US and Europe have little choice but to make up for the losses on 'legacy' assets and wait for banks to earn back their capital. But to prevent future crises of this type, one should make sure that losses from the investment banking arms cannot impair commercial banking operations. At least a partial separation of commercial and investment banking thus seems justified by the greater stability of commercial banking operations.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
3. At What Cost Price Stability? New evidence about the Phillips Curve in Europe and the United States
- Author:
- Daniel Gros and Andrea Beccarini
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- With inflation increasing all over the world, central banks have to consider with some care how quickly to re-establish price stability. A key issue in this context is the short-run cost in terms of foregone output and higher unemployment. The aim of this paper is to determine the 'sacrifice ratio' for the Euro Area and for the United States. The main findings are: the cost of reducing inflation is in most cases higher in the US than in the EA. For example, reducing (headline) inflation by 1% point requires a decline of output of 1.4% in the EU, but 2.3% for the US. Considering core inflation, the sacrifice ratio in terms of output is somewhat higher for the Euro Area (around 4) compared to 3.2 for the US. However, the sacrifice ratios in terms of unemployment are always much larger for the US. Reducing headline inflation by 1% requires an increase in unemployment of little more than 1% in the EA, compared to 8% in the US.
- Topic:
- Economics and Foreign Exchange
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
4. The US Housing Bust and Soaring Oil Prices: What next for the world economy?
- Author:
- Daniel Gros and Cecilia Frale
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper estimates the impact of the ongoing housing bust and oil price boom on the US and European economies. It finds that large house price movements (changes in construction investment) are useful to predict exceptionally bad and good times for the US economy, but not for most large European countries. In Europe housing market developments have led to extreme values of GDP, mainly in the UK, Spain and some Nordic countries.
- Topic:
- Economics and Oil
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
5. Bubbles in real estate? A Longer-Term Comparative Analysis of Housing Prices in Europe and the US
- Author:
- Daniel Gros
- Publication Date:
- 10-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The downturn in the US housing market has attracted a lot of attention as it has sparked a global financial crisis. It is generally assumed that the eurozone does not face a similar problem. This paper shows that this assumption is wrong. The euro area average index of real housing prices has risen almost as much as that of the US and is now (as that of the US) about 40% above its 30-year average. This is similar to the overvaluation of Japanese real estate at the height of the Japanese bubble, which was then followed by over a decade of continuous decline. Over the last 30 years, the euro area index for real housing prices has tended to follow that of the US quite closely. The lag is now much shorter than in the 1970s or 1980s. The euro area market is thus likely to turn soon as well. One feature of housing price cycles that tends to be forgotten is their extraordinary length: many last for more than ten years. This persistence means that the downswing, which now seems to have started, is likely to last at least until the next decade. Within the euro area, there are large divergences: cases of 'froth' (Spain, for example) co-exist alongside cases of declining prices (Germany). These divergences have persisted for over a decade and have led to important macroeconomic disequilibria. The paper also develops an indicator of 'housing overhang', which shows by how much demand for new construction has to decline to bring the supply of housing back to normal levels. This indicator suggests that there is virtually no housing overhang in the eurozone on average and that it is of a manageable magnitude in the US. Spain and Ireland, however, face a massive housing overhang and thus probably a sharp deceleration of construction demand.
- Topic:
- Economics and Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
6. Foreign Investment in the US (I): Disappearing in a black hole?
- Author:
- Daniel Gros
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The US international investment position today should in principle be equal to the sum of past current account balances (mostly deficits). However, this is by far not the case even taking into account the balancing item 'errors and omissions'. Between 1982 and 2004, the US has accumulated a grand total of around $4.5 trillion (thousand billion). (The sum of current account deficits has been about $1 trillion smaller than the amount of net sales of US assets to the rest of the world because of the anomaly in reinvested earning.) Despite this accumulation of deficits the US net international debtor position (IIP) has deteriorated 'only' by $2.7 billion (and is now estimated – at the end of 2004, end 2005 figures are not yet available for the US IIP – at 'only' around $2.5 trillion). This implies a total of 'unearned' gains to the US of around $1.8 trillion during 22 years. The quite detailed data available for a somewhat shorter period (1989-2004) show that only a very small part of this sum, around 10-20%, can be explained by exchange rate and stock market changes.</p
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
7. Foreign Investment in the US (II): BEING TAKEN TO THE CLEANERS?
- Author:
- Daniel Gros
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The income account of the US balance of payments has so far remained in surplus because of a very large differential in reported earnings on direct investment – US firms seem to enjoy a much higher rate of return than foreign firms in the US. There is little difference in terms of the rate of dividend payments; the difference is due to what is called 'reinvested earnings' (earnings minus dividends). Foreign firms report almost no reinvested earnings on their direct investment in the US whereas US firms report substantial reinvested earnings from their direct investment abroad, on average over $100 billion more p.a. than foreign firms report on their US investment. This anomaly is probably due to the desire of foreign firms to minimise their US taxes, whereas US firms do not face tax liabilities if they report high foreign profits to the US authorities. The procedure used to generate the data for reinvested earnings thus has a built-in bias to improve the US current account and – over time – its international investment position. The true picture is likely to be much worse.</p
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States