Number of results to display per page
Search Results
22. The financial crisis and citizen trust in the European Central Bank
- Author:
- Daniel Gros and Felix Roth
- Publication Date:
- 07-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- Trust in the ECB, as measured by the standard Eurobarometer (and other) surveys has fallen to an unprecedented low – especially in the larger euro area countries. The authors find that up to the start of the recession in 2008, trust in the ECB was little affected by business cycle variables such as growth and inflation. This changed radically with the recession, with trust in the ECB becoming correlated quite closely with growth. However, even the recovery of growth in 2009 was not sufficient to restore trust in the ECB to previous levels. This finding implies that European citizens seem to have placed a heavy share of the blame on the European Central Bank for the real economic downturn caused by the financial crisis.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
23. Adjustment Difficulties in the GIPSY Club
- Author:
- Daniel Gros
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper describes the key economic variables and mechanisms that will determine the adjustment process in those euro area countries now under financial market pressure. (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy = GIPSY) The key finding is that the adjustment will be particularly difficult for Greece (and Portugal) because these are two relatively closed economies with low savings rates. Both of these countries are facing a solvency problem because they combine high debt levels with low growth and high interest rates. Fiscal and external adjustment is thus required for sustainability, not just to satisfy the Stability Pact. By contrast, Ireland and Spain face more of a liquidity than a solvency problem. Italy seems to have a much better starting position on all accounts. Fiscal adjustment alone will not be sufficient to ensure sustainability. Without significant reductions in labour costs, these economies will face years of stagnation at best. Especially in the case of Greece, it is imperative that the cuts in public sector wages are transmitted to the entire economy in order to restore competitiveness, and thus ensure that export growth can become a vital safety valve. Without an adjustment of wages in the private sector, the adjustment will become so difficult that failure cannot be excluded.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Ireland
24. Towards a Euro(pean) Monetary Fund
- Author:
- Daniel Gros and Thomas Mayer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- Despite cobbling together an impressive $1 trillion rescue package for countries with potential funding problems, the threat of a disorderly default still looms over the eurozone, creating systemic financial instability at the EU and possibly global level. Against this background, Daniel Gros and Thomas Mayer renew their call for the creation of a European Monetary Fund (EMF) in an update to their Policy Brief issued in February.
- Topic:
- Economics, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Greece
25. The Impact of the Crisis on the Real Economy
- Author:
- Daniel Gros and Cinzia Alcidi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- This crisis was caused by a combination of asset price bubbles, mainly in the real estate sector, and a credit bubble that led to excessive leverage. This is wellknown. What is less well-known is that on both accounts the euro area was affected by both 'bubble' symptoms as much as the US.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
26. Towards a Euro(pean) Monetary Fund
- Author:
- Daniel Gros and Thomas Mayer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The case of Greece has ushered in the second phase of the financial crisis, namely that of sovereign default. Members of the euro area were supposed to be shielded from a financial market meltdown. But, after excess spending during the period of easy credit, several euro area members are now grappling with the implosion of credit-financed construction and consumption booms. Greece is the weakest of the weak links, given its high public debt (around 120% of GDP), compounded by a government budget deficit of almost 13% of GDP, a huge external deficit of 11% of GDP and the loss of credibility from its repeated cheating on budget reports.
- Topic:
- Economics, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
27. A Renewed Political Deal for Sustainable Growth within the Eurozone and the EU: An Open Letter to the President of the European Council
- Author:
- Daniel Gros, Stefano Micossi, Richard Baldwin, Giuliano Amato, and Pier Carlo Padoan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- Under current policies, the European Union will only be able to pull itself out of low growth and high unemployment very slowly – too slowly to exclude dangerous economic and political assaults on the Union's continuing cohesion and viability. What is needed is a substantial increase in the EU output growth rate, which has been persistently low for too long a time. With low growth, sovereign debt sustainability in a number of member states will remain uncertain, possibly leading to renewed strains in financial markets and rising spreads that will aggravate the costs of budgetary consolidation. The divergences in productivity and competitiveness and the current external imbalances they engendered can be unwound at an acceptable cost only if growth accelerates in the core and the periphery. On present trends, the adjustment burden might be unbearable for peripheral countries and generate strains that may eventually undermine the euro.
- Topic:
- Economics, Regional Cooperation, Monetary Policy, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Europe
28. What lessons from the 1930s?
- Author:
- Daniel Gros and Cinzia Alcidi
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper explores three areas in which the experience of the Great Depression might be relevant today: monetary policy, fiscal policy and the systemic stability of the banking system. We confirm the consensus on monetary policy: deflation must be avoided. With regard to fiscal policy, the picture is less clear. We cannot confirm a widespread opinion according to which fiscal policy did not work because it was not tried. We find that fiscal policy went to the limit of what was possible within the confines of sustainability, as they existed then. Our investigation of the US banking system shows a surprising resilience of the sector: commercial banking operations (deposit-taking and lending) remained profitable even during the worst years. This suggests one policy conclusion: At present the authorities in both the US and Europe have little choice but to make up for the losses on 'legacy' assets and wait for banks to earn back their capital. But to prevent future crises of this type, one should make sure that losses from the investment banking arms cannot impair commercial banking operations. At least a partial separation of commercial and investment banking thus seems justified by the greater stability of commercial banking operations.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
29. At What Cost Price Stability? New evidence about the Phillips Curve in Europe and the United States
- Author:
- Daniel Gros and Andrea Beccarini
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- With inflation increasing all over the world, central banks have to consider with some care how quickly to re-establish price stability. A key issue in this context is the short-run cost in terms of foregone output and higher unemployment. The aim of this paper is to determine the 'sacrifice ratio' for the Euro Area and for the United States. The main findings are: the cost of reducing inflation is in most cases higher in the US than in the EA. For example, reducing (headline) inflation by 1% point requires a decline of output of 1.4% in the EU, but 2.3% for the US. Considering core inflation, the sacrifice ratio in terms of output is somewhat higher for the Euro Area (around 4) compared to 3.2 for the US. However, the sacrifice ratios in terms of unemployment are always much larger for the US. Reducing headline inflation by 1% requires an increase in unemployment of little more than 1% in the EA, compared to 8% in the US.
- Topic:
- Economics and Foreign Exchange
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
30. China and India: Implications for the EU Economy
- Author:
- Daniel Gros
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper provides background information on the likely challenges the rise of China and India will pose for the economy of the EU. The purpose is mainly descriptive, namely to spell out what kind of trading partner China and India will represent for the EU in the foreseeable future. A first observation is that India is several times smaller than China in economic terms. Moreover, because its investment rates in both human and physical capital are much lower than in China, its growth potential is likely to remain more limited. China's export structure has already become rather similar to that of the EU and this 'convergence' is likely to result in the rapid accumulation of human and physical capital. If current trends continue, the Chinese economy is likely to have a capital/labour ratio similar to that of the EU. In terms of human capital, China has already caught up considerably, but further progress will be slowed down by its stable demographics and the still low enrolment ratio in tertiary education. In both areas India will lag China by several decades. The rapid accumulation of capital suggests that the emergence of China will put adjustment pressures mainly on capital-intensive industries, not the traditional sectors, such as textiles. Another source of friction that is likely to emerge derives from the abundance of coal in China, resulting in a relatively carbon- and energy-intensive economy.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and India