Author: Caspar Fithin / Topic: Security

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Israel last week launched an air raid against a Syrian radar station in Lebanon. The air raid has raised the stakes in the low-level military confrontation between Hizbollah and Israel. It has also exacerbated Lebanese internal divisions and exposed the lack of a national consensus on Hizbollah's cross-border operations. The Israeli raid has set a precedent and raised the stakes in Tel Aviv's confrontation with Hizbollah along the Lebanese border. Although neither Syria nor Israel is interested in a military confrontation, there are no guarantees that the situation will not spin out of control and lead to a limited regional conflict.
Topic:: International Relations and Security
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The US Supreme Court heard oral argument last month on whether 'medical necessity' should override the federal government's blanket prohibition on the use of marijuana. If the Court were to accept this argument, it would provide a powerful boost to the medical marijuana movement and hamper the federal government's ability to pursue its current drugs policy. A ruling in favour of the federal government, however, would constrain the ability of states to formulate independent drug policies. The Supreme Court is likely to sidestep the substantive issue of whether 'medical necessity' allows the distribution of marijuana to seriously ill patients. Its inclination will be to decide the case on a narrow procedural ground which would leave the federal government to decide if it wishes to pursue criminal prosecutions.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Congressional criticism of 'Plan Colombia's' military component, and the advent of a new administration in Washington, are likely to lead to a strategic review of US policy. The outcome may be a policy that is less military focused, more regionally oriented, and based on closer cooperation with other aid donors. It has become increasingly clear that Plan Colombia can only be implemented if the EU and its member states are prepared to increase their financial contribution. This will give the Europeans considerable leverage, and they are likely to use it to insist on a less militarised approach. However, even with a change in policy emphasis, the prospects of success will remain poor.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Colombia, and South America

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 11-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Israel this week launched missile attacks against Palestinian security targets in Gaza in retaliation for the bombing of a school bus carrying settlers. Tel Aviv and Washington have blamed Palestinian National Authority President Yasser Arafat for the current crisis, saying he could reduce the violence. In fact, the uprising is a spontaneous revolt against the terms of the Oslo peace process. Far from being undermined by the crisis, Arafat is using it to maximise his political and diplomatic position in the event that negotiations resume. The crisis marks a decisive shift in the Palestinians' conditions for peace with Israel.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 11-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Delegates from 122 countries recently concluded an international agreement restricting the use of persistent organic pollutants. The agreement marks an important step towards eliminating the use of highly toxic and long-lived chemicals that do not break down easily in the environment. However, the significance of the accord extends well beyond its subject area: negotiators managed to find compromises on several issues that have bedevilled other international environmental agreements.
Topic:: Security and Environment
Political Geography:: Russia

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 08-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The recent increase in arrests on espionage charges and expansion of activity by Russia's security and intelligence agencies appears to be signalling a reversion to aggressive Cold War tactics. They are seeking to increase their political influence and appear to be testing the limits of the 'civilised' intelligence competition which has evolved in the last decade. While Moscow has the means and apparent will to intensify intelligence competition, its clumsy and outdated methods threaten the country's commercial interests and could harm broader foreign policy goals.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Cold War
Political Geography:: Russia

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 07-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: United Nations peacekeeping forces are expected to deploy to the Lebanese-Israeli international border soon. Considerable diplomatic efforts have been required to win 'acceptance' of the border by Beirut and Tel Aviv, and thereby enable UN deployment to the area from which Israel withdrew nearly two months ago. The United Nations is likely to find it even more difficult to implement the other terms of its mandate.
Topic:: Security and United Nations
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

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