Search

Begin New Search Political Geography Africa Author Caesar Cheelo

1. A Review of Pillar I & II of Zambia’s Economic Stabilisation and Growth Programme 2017-2019

Author:
Florence Banda-Muleya, Shebo Nalishebo, Mbewe Kalikeka, Nakubyana Mungomba, Ignatius Masilokwa, and Caesar Cheelo
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
The economic crisis of 2015 destabilised Zambia’s economic performance. The depreciation of the Kwacha and its pass-through effects led to inflation of as high as 22% and growth, at 2.9%, was far below the 5% target. The overall Budget deviation was 15% of Parliamentary appropriations in 2015, disrupting planned activities and attainment of set macroeconomic objectives. There were huge variations between what the consequent national Budgets committed to do and what they actually did. To fix this and nudge the country back towards high sustained economic growth, the Economic Stabilisation and Growth Programme (ESGP) was crafted in 2017. The five-pillar plan aimed to ensure prudent fiscal management by providing a system of accountability and a standard against which results could be measured, among other things. The aim of this paper is to review the ESGP, particularly, its performance in 2018. The paper sets out to understand how well Zambia faired in implementing the ESGP as well as to highlight the broader fiscal trends recently. It ultimately seeks to make recommendations about how Zambia can revive its path to economic stability and growth. The paper focuses tightly on the first two pillars of the ESGP, i.e. (i) restoring budget credibility; and (ii) enhancing domestic resource mobilisation and refocusing public expenditure. The remaining three pillars are slated to be reviewed in the second half of 2019.
Topic:
Budget, Finance, Economic growth, and Economic Stability
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

2. In Further Pursuit of an IMF-Programme: Possible Pathways for Zambia and Lessons for Africa

Author:
Caesar Cheelo and Nakubyana Mungomba
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Since 2015, Zambia’s real GDP growth has declined markedly, its local currency has depreciated notably with episodes of serious volatility, and the risks of fiscal and debt distress have mounted. As the country searches for solutions, one viable international economic diplomacy instrument might be the IMF. Since its creation in 1945, the IMF has fostered global monetary cooperation, secured financial stability, international trade, high employment, sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction, mainly through: lending, surveillance and capacity building. Zambia has been pursuing an IMF-supported economic programme since about 2016, but with dismal success. In contrast, other economies like Ghana and Zimbabwe appear to be making headway. Key questions emerge from the foregoing: what does the evidence say about the relevance and significance of an IMF-supported programme for Zambia? Why has the country’s recent quest for an IMF deal failed? Does Zambia have feasible pathways to an IMF deal? This paper tackles these issues using simply descriptive statistical analysis, stylized facts and a political economy lens. We highlight a number of specific pathways that Zambia could follow in further pursuit of an IMF-support programme.
Topic:
Political Economy, GDP, Economy, Macroeconomics, Currency, and IMF
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

3. “Blanket” Fuel and Electricity Subsidies Did Not Offer Much Benefit to Zambia’s Poor

Author:
Caesar Cheelo and Rabecca Haatongo-Masenke
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
For a long time the Zambian Government ran a number of consumption and production subsidy programmes. These programmes1 came under considerable strain in 2015 when Zambia experienced a significant economic downturn. In that year, the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate fell to 2.9%, from an impressive 7.7% over the ten years before (2005-2014). By the time the 2015 downturn had fully set in, the country was running a budget deficit of nearly 10% of GDP and had raked up a public debt stock of over 50% of GDP (IMF, 2016). With the combined cost of debt service interest payments and arrear payments rising from 17% of the National Budget in 2016 to 23% in 2017 (Cheelo, 2017), the Government was readily hemorrhaging money in the aftermath of the minicrisis. Zambia could no longer afford the multiplicity of subsidies it had been maintaining and seriously contemplated abolishing some of them. The policy intentions of the Government were met with strong anti-abolition sentiments with some stakeholders asserting that the removal of subsidies on fuel and electricity would cause pump-price and electricity tariff escalations. The worry was that these price hikes would hurt Zambia’s poor and vulnerable groups most of all. Generally, these sentiments were not backed by analysis and empirical evidence; they were subjective and had the potential to misinform public policy. This paper offers an alternative perspective to the above motion on anti-abolition of subsidies. We argue that during their existence, the fuel and electricity subsidies had benefitted the poor far less than they had done any other social groups in Zambia. Likewise, the abolition of the subsidies affected the poor less than it did other social groups.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Electricity, Fossil Fuels, and Subsidies
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

4. Financing the Economic Stabilization and Growth Programme (Zambia Plus) in the Shadow of the IMF

Author:
Caesar Cheelo
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
In February 2018, the IMF reaffirmed its August 2017 formal withdrawal from negotiations with Zambia over a package of financial support. The strong position to hold negotiations came in the IMF’s Article IV Consultations report of 2017, which concluded that Zambia was at high risk of debt distress, and that whilst financial management and fiscal discipline were improving, the extent of the improvement was not sufficient to mitigate the growing public debt and fiscal deficit. Whilst the IMF deal may be off the table for the time being, the many of problems that drove Zambia to engage the IMF most assuredly remain unresolved. Two to three years after the economic minicrisis of 2015, Zambia continued to accrue sizable new debts, to utilize the proceeds poorly (to fund consumption spending) and to run persistent fiscal deficits – albeit a smaller and seemingly better managed deficit in 2017 compared to 2015 and 2016. These issues remain problematic despite the partial economic rebound, with high copper prices, good rains (leading to good harvests and more reliable power supply), and a stable Kwacha providing a strong platform for improvement. Nonetheless, fiscal performance is lagging behind and Zambia may be missing a window to reestablish prudent public financial management.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Governance, Reform, Macroeconomics, IMF, and Public Debt
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

5. Towards An Inflation Targeting Regime in Zambia

Author:
Caesar Cheelo and Thulani Banda
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
In this paper, I seek to discuss the conduct of monetary policy in an inflation targeting framework. The objective is to understand structural and institutional nuances in settings where this framework is successful in controlling inflation and challenges that emerge in the implementation of inflation targeting. I deal with the question: which institutional conditions should exist to support the successful implementation of inflation targeting in countries that use it? I find several institutional and legal elements which are common and can potentially explain much of the success in the implementation of inflation targeting among their monetary authorities. I benchmark these elements with the concepts of transparency and accountability of the central bank which are central tenets in the discussion of inflation targeting. I note that central bank credibility is a key outstanding element in explaining the success of inflation targeting. Components such as central bank independence and commitment to low stable inflation as the overriding objective of monetary policy represent critical preconditions for inflation targeting and can sustain the credibility of monetary policy.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Inflation, Central Bank, Transparency, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

6. A Tightening Balancing Act: Economic Implications of Zambia's Balance of Payments Performance

Author:
Caesar Cheelo and Thulani Banda
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
International trade and investment are primary drivers of globalization, international trade and development. In 2014, Zambia’s trade openness – in terms of total monetary flows on all export and import transactions combined – was estimated at 79.6% of GDP while the total (cumulative) stock on inward FDI was 66.5% of GDP. The recent economic headwinds in Zambia and abroad motivated this review of the country’s external position relative to the rest of the world. This paper highlights the changes in the balance of payments (BOP), a key tool for monitoring Zambia’s economic performance vis-à-vis the rest of the world. The balance of payments shows the Zambia’s financial transactions with other countries in the world, recoding the flows of money into and out of the economy through a number of payments accounts. Checking the economy’s balance of payments position offers useful insights about its external sector’s health. In a sense, the monetary flows through the balance of payments reflect Zambia’s net dependency on the rest of the world. The context of the analysis in the paper is the economic malaise of 2015. The paper thus demonstrates that the economic debacle of 2015 is not an unfamiliar experience for Zambia. It draws on the country’s economic recent history, identifying parallels between the past and the present. It seeks to offer guidance to policy-makers, towards fostering foster effective and reliable responses to the external balance challenges. Particularly, the paper analyses the fundamental elements of Zambia’s balance of payments, describing their recent behaviour and highlighting some of the main drivers of imbalances in the different payments accounts. It recommends measures for correcting some of the imbalance in the balance of payments, seeking to contribute to the improvement of the external sector’s performance.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

7. China-Africa Trade Developments and Impacts: Case of China-Zambia Relations

Author:
Caesar Cheelo, Pamela Nakamba-Kabaso, and Zhun Che
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
At a glance, China and Zambia – just like China and Africa – are strikingly different in many ways. They followed markedly different paths to development. They achieved significantly divergent trade and development results. However, they also have many striking commonalities, including a shared long history of developmental cooperation and relations. But, what are the lessons of China-Zambia relations for Zambia’s developmental goals and aspirations, including those in the Vision 2030? This study sought to undertake a critical comparative assessment of the trade (and other underpinning socioeconomic) developments in China, Africa and Zambia, with a view to understanding their impetus as well as their consequences, both positive and negative, for China- Africa and China -Zambia ties. It offers unique perspectives and understanding about China-Africa and China-Zambia relations. It takes a look at the history and present-day China- Africa and China-Zambia relations, considering the social and cultural ties that have defined cooperation as well as the political and diplomatic relations that have been forged over time. It unravels the trade and development implications of these relations for Zambia, Africa and China.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Bilateral Relations, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, and Zambia

8. What do the COMESA Customs Union and COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite Free Trade Area mean for Zambia’s import trade and trade tax revenue?

Author:
Caesar Cheelo, Njeleka Malata, and Joseph Tembo
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Zambia has participated actively in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and Southern African Development Community (SADC) regional integration programmes. Within SADC it is now reportedly a full participant in the SADC Free Trade Area (FTA), granting duty-free and quota-free access to goods originating from the SADC region. It is also a founding participant in the COMESA FTA and is now looking ahead to participate in the establishment of the COMESA Customs Union. The country is also committed to participate in the recently announced Tripartite FTA, which will establish a free trade area and then eventually a customs union, consolidating the regional economic communities of COMESA, SADC, and the East African Community (EAC). Quite often the actual or potential short-term or transitional impacts of the tariff reforms associated with regional integration are not well known. This is the case with respect to Zambia’s commitments to further integration under the forthcoming COMESA Customs Union and Tripartite FTA. ZIPAR therefore undertook a study to assess the potential effects for Zambia of the forthcoming trade reforms implied in both the COMESA Customs Union and the Tripartite FTA. The study made two starting-point observations: on the one hand, the Tripartite FTA is expected to consolidate the internal markets of the three regional economic communities and facilitate duty- and quota-free trade within the common market, subject to rules of origin. This means the Tripartite FTA will define Zambia’s internal trade policy position with other member states. On the other hand, the COMESA Customs Union, with its Common Tariff Nomenclature, Common External Tariff structure and common Customs Management Regulations, will define Zambia and other COMESA Member States’ common external trade policy position. Given Zambia’s ratification of these trade arrangements, it is important for policy-makers to understand the significance of the trade policy reforms implied in both the COMESA Customs Union and the Tripartite FTA. This paper therefore seeks to determine the implications for Zambia of the trade reforms that the country will undertake. It applies the following methods of ex-ante analysis: (1) Import trade and tariff profiling using simple descriptive statistical analysis of trade for the period 2000-2010 and of tariff structures in 2010; (2) Analysis of required trade policy reforms; and (3) Analysis of revenue implications and economic effects using the World Bank’s Tariff Reform Impact Simulation Tool (TRIST). Trade and customs data as well as other data were obtained from authentic national and international sources including the Zambia Revenue Authority, COMESA Secretariat, Central Statistical Office, Ministry of Finance, World Trade Organisation and World Bank, among others. The paper’s reference period is 2010.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Economy, Tax Systems, Free Trade, and Imports
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia