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1. Searching for Illicit Dual Use Items in Online Marketplaces: A Semi-Automated Approach

Author:
Bryan Lee, Margaret Arno, and Daniel Salisbury
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
Online business today takes place in a global marketplace. Drop shipments and containerized shipping have made the export and import of materials and finished goods easier than ever. Anyone who has ever purchased something online is already familiar with this world from the consumer perspective. However, online marketplaces are increasingly important for business-to-business commerce as well. Suppliers of many high-tech products use online platforms for both domestic and international transfers, including products that are considered dual-use. Dual-use commodities are items which are used for civilian industry but also have potential application in the development of weapons of mass destruction. As the popularity of online marketplaces increases, so does the risk that illicit trafficking networks can misuse these platforms as a means of gaining access to critical dual-use commodities. Well-known US-based platforms like eBay, Amazon, and Craigslist are thought to have reasonably effective procedures to screen for dual-use materials that might be controlled. However, even these firms have been challenged by the upsurge in use of their platforms for trade in potentially sensitive items. For non-US based platforms, reports highlighting how some sites have been used for illicit trafficking may have brought increased attention to the issue, but it remains unclear how effective screening methodologies are. Further, it is unclear if smaller sites that specialize in business-to-business transfers of industrial materials understand or implement controls on the sale of dual-use technologies. This report explores the value of semi-automated approaches to gather and analyze data from online marketplaces to further understanding of the prevalence of dual-use technologies and the potential for proliferators to use these marketplaces to illicitly procure these items. It concludes that large-scale harvesting of online marketplace information is possible using off-the-shelf open source technologies and basic programming skills. Data gathered through such harvesting methods, however, are of generally poor quality. Machine learning techniques are likely to improve data collection and closer cooperation between online marketplaces and compliance officials would be an effective method of keeping these marketplaces safe and open for business.
Topic:
Digital Economy, Trafficking, Illegal Trade, and Digitization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. The Verification Clearinghouse: Debunking Websites and the Potential for Public Nonproliferation Monitoring

Author:
Bryan Lee and Kyle Pilutti
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
The rapid pace at which information spreads online has been a boon for information gathering but poses risks with respect to the truth of the information. This risk increases with high-stakes information, such as treaty compliance judgements, and it is one of the main reasons why publicly available information is usually excluded from verification efforts. Nevertheless, just as military and intelligence experts have developed techniques to counter deception, techniques to debunk online deception have grown in power and sophistication. Most of these techniques can be applied by a dedicated amateur and allow the user to identify manipulations of images, video, and audio. Coupled with the rise of open source analytical tools, there is now the potential to construct a “verification clearinghouse,” an online website that would allow both experts and members of the public to monitor and evaluate arms control treaties. There are a number of existing online debunking sites available to the public. The majority of them focus on smaller niche topics, such as sites dedicated to political fact checking or Internet hoaxes. In other cases, sites are maintained by enthusiastic experts who work to debunk cases that are of particular interest or importance to themselves or their fields. These sites are important building blocks for future verification clearinghouse efforts. In our analysis, we characterize the existing attempts to address online deception, identifying the factors that make them particularly advantageous, and group them into three different types as shown below.
Topic:
Digital Economy, Internet, Nonproliferation, and Digitization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. New Media Solutions in Nonproliferation and Arms Control: Opportunities and Challenges

Author:
Bryan Lee
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
CNS has released a ground breaking new report investigating the role new and social media can play in tracking nonproliferation and verifying arms control. The paper lays out how these new technologies have the potential to significantly enhance current practices in the field of nonproliferation and arms control. They stress, however, that it is critical to approach anything that is so new and fluid with caution and flexibility as technologies that might be effective today for solving a particular nonproliferation or arms control problem might not work or require a major redesign in the future. The paper contains four detailed examples that show how new media can be applied to the nonproliferation challenge. They include: 1) election mapping; 2) Github; 3) real time commercial satellite image analysis; and 4) a Twitter text mining analysis. The findings demonstrate emerging technologies and procedures that can enhance the ability of countries or organizations or even individuals to identify when weapons of mass destruction are being built or used, or in ensuring that countries live up to their international treaty obligations.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Media, Social Media, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:
Global Focus