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1. Taming the Revisionist State: The Effects of Military Defeats on the War-Proneness of Germany vs. Iraq

Author:
Benjamin Miller and Moran Mandalbaum
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
Abstract:
Following the post - 2003 US intervention in Iraq, and with a potential US use of force against Iran, one key analytical question stands out, which has major policy implications: Does military defeat by the great powers have stabilizing or de - stabilizing effects on the aggressive behavior of revisionist states? Somewhat similarly to the pre - 2003 Iraq invasion debate, the great powers have a number of options for dealing with the potential Iranian nuclear threat: diplomatic engagement, deterrence, or resort to military power -- either to bring about a regime change, or to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities. Taking into account the possibility of resorting to force against Iran, an intriguing question emerges: what does IR theory lead us to expect -- and what does the historical record show -- with regard to the effects of military defeats on the war - propensity of revisionist states? In other words, why do some militarily defeated states become war - like, while others peaceful?
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Germany

2. When (And How) Regions Become Peaceful: Explaining Transitions From War To Peace

Author:
Benjamin Miller
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
Abstract:
Three important regions have moved from war to peace during the 20th century: South America in the beginning of the century, Western Europe in the middle while the Middle East has begun the move toward the end of the century. Not only did these moves take place in different periods in this century, but they also resulted in completely different types and levels of peace. How can we best explain these transitions and variations? Western Europe moved from a major war-zone to a zone of peace in the years following World War II. South America started the move to regional peace, even if not perfectly, much earlier in the 20th century. However, since the late 1950s Western Europe has reached a much higher level of peace than South America. A vigorous peace process began in the Middle East, in contrast, only in the early 1990s and the peace there is still much more fragile than in the other regions.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and South America