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1. Does the New Saudi Reactor Justify Proliferation Fears?

Author:
Basel Ammane
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:
In early April 2019, Saudi Arabia’s progress in constructing its first nuclear reactor with the assistance of Argentine firm INVAP was the subject of considerable media attention that speculated on the dangers of this development. This was made all the more alarming given the reported nuclear technological assistance to the kingdom that the American administration approved. In fact, a cursory review of events surrounding this development reveals that there are at least two indicators that can be seen as cause for concern. First, Saudi leadership rhetoric pertaining to proliferation has not been reassuring, as crown prince Mohammed bin Salman signaled his country’s resolve to pursue the path of nuclear armament in the event that Iran, its regional rival, moves in that direction too. Second, the construction of this reactor is seen as the first step toward acquiring the knowledge and experience necessary for developing a sizeable nuclear power infrastructure that will supply the kingdom’s needs in the future. The kingdom has plans to build two large nuclear reactors to diversify its energy sources and meet its electricity needs, as well as a number of small reactors for desalination purposes. As these plans begin to materialize, the importance of Saudi compliance under a Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement (CSA) will become indispensable and equivocation on the matter unacceptable. Having said this, speculation that is largely focused on a handful of events reported by the media is not good at providing a clear picture. Grounding analysis in an understanding of regional politics and global nonproliferation dynamics is likely to capture a clearer picture of the situation. There are at least two factors should be grounds for concern about potential Saudi nuclear proliferation.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Infrastructure, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Middle East and Saudi Arabia

2. What to Make of the Government’s Decision not to Extend its Mission in Mali

Author:
Basel Ammane
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:
News stories about the Ogossagou massacre that killed more than 161 people, the death of Malian soldiers at the hands of jihadi terrorists, as well as the resignation of the Malian Prime Minister Soumeylou Boubèye Maïga hardly paint a picture of progress towards inter-communal peace in that country. In fact, an analysis of MINUSMA (the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali) attributed the continued instability to the low ranking of ‘protection of civilians’ on the list of priorities for that mission. In other words, it assessed that the situation was so dire that it required substantial changes to the framework of the operation for tangible improvement to materialize. Yet despite UN overtures and the “bad optics” of leaving before replacements have arrived, the Canadian government has been adamant about its objections to extending the mission in the West African country beyond July, citing its previously-set duration for the mission of one year. With less than three months remaining till the end of Operation PRESENCE, Canada’s contribution of peacekeeping efforts under MINUSMA, it is worth reflecting on the significance of this endeavour and attempting to understand the limitations that shaped it and have come to define it. The announcement of the mission came on the back of the Liberals’ success in the 2015 federal election which was preceded by a campaign that prominently featured the idea of returning Canada to its place as a country heavily involved in peacekeeping. Unfortunately, though, exclusive involvement in this peacekeeping mission falls massively short of campaign promises to commit up to 600 troops to such missions. Moreover, many experts have voiced their concerns about lack of progress in Mali and the need for a stronger commitment in terms of resources, but their pleas have fallen on deaf ears. Does that reflect a downgrading of peacekeeping as an international security priority for this government? There is evidence that suggests this is the case. A brief look at the Department of National Defence spending plans for 2019-2020 is sufficient to reveal the movement of funding to other operations. The most prominent of such operations are Operation LIMPID, REASSURANCE, and FOUNDATION. Operation LIMPID refers to CAF efforts to counter threats to the country sovereignty in a variety of realms including land, maritime, space and cyber domains; operation REASSURANCE deals with shoring up NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe to assure these countries of its support, while operation FOUNDATION deals with counter-terrorism efforts in the Middle East, North Africa, and South West Asia. So what accounts for this shift?
Topic:
United Nations, Military Strategy, Governance, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

3. Trump isn’t NATO’s Only Problem

Author:
Basel Ammane
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:
During the last NATO Summit in Brussels in July, the first since the onset of the Trump presidency, observers were carefully watching in anticipation of any indicators about the state of commitment by the US to the alliance. Trump’s antics, such as the insults he levelled at Germany, the impudent demands he made, and the thinly-veiled threat he issued unsurprisingly dominated media coverage. This served as a reminder that the alliance and its members need to work vigorously to safeguard US commitment given that this president’s preoccupation with prodding allies into increasing military spending, though echoed by previous administrations, is much more forceful and borders on the nakedly belligerent. To make matters worse, a skeptical view of alliances that sees them through a transactional prism and portrays them as burdens seems to be a consistent view that President Trump has held for years. This further demonstrates that the risk of a declining US commitment to the alliance is real. But a shaky commitment by a US president is hardly the only source of problems for today’s NATO.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. Limited Justice for Syria on the Horizon

Author:
Basel Ammane
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:
The recent attacks in Eastern Ghouta in which a swath of land housing a population of 400,000 was surrounded, shelled incessantly and later invaded have refocused the world’s attention on the events in Syria.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. Canada Should Reemphasize Its Place in NATO

Author:
Basel Ammane
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:
While NATO skepticism is by no means a recent phenomenon, the whirlwind unleashed by US President Donald Trump’s blistering declarations and searing criticism of NATO has thrust the alliance into the spotlight in a way it has not been in recent memory.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. Momentous Change in the Nile Basin

Author:
Basel Ammane
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:
The Nile Basin is among numerous areas around the world that experience water scarcity. Many of the countries that are in it fail to meet the minimum of 2,740 litres per person per day needed to avoid being listed as a country with chronic water scarcity. 1 To make matters worse, the collective population of these countries is expected to rise to around 647 million by 2030, a 52 percent increase from what it was in 2010 according to the UN Population Division
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7. Policy Brief – Momentous Change in the Nile Basin

Author:
Basel Ammane
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:
The Nile Basin is among numerous areas around the world that experience water scarcity. Many of the countries that are in it fail to meet the minimum of 2,740 litres per person per day needed to avoid being listed as a country with chronic water scarcity. To make matters worse, the collective population of these countries is expected to rise to around 647 million by 2030, a 52 percent increase from what it was in 2010 according to the UN Population Division. Fortunately, however, there does not seem to be sufficient evidence to establish a strong relationship of one-way causality between water scarcity and conflict. In fact, a comprehensive study of the matter at Oregon State University in 2001 concluded that incidents of cooperation far outnumbered those of conflict among countries that shared a water resource and experienced water scarcity. This paints a substantially different picture from that portrayed by the dramatic rhetoric expressing quasi-certainty about the occurrence of water wars one typically encounters in sensationalistic pieces. What’s more, the record has shown that the typical response to water scarcity has been one of cooperation and innovation. Having said that, increasing inter-annual variability in the flow of the waters of the river and the consequent increase in instances of floods and droughts, coupled with a rise in the willingness and ability of upstream countries to challenge Egypt’s hegemonic status in addition to the demographic changes mentioned earlier will certainly test the basin countries’ capacity for cooperation, innovation and adaptation. This will ultimately be crucial in determining the state of relations among them and the future of their populations with respect to water.
Topic:
International Organization and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus