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1. Indonesia’s growing clout: Domestic, regional, and global drivers

Author:
Bart Gaens and Olli Ruohomäki
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
While Indonesia still stands out as one of the stronger democracies in Southeast Asia, its democratic credentials remain flawed. Nevertheless, public support for the current administration has remained high thanks to sustained economic growth, welfare measures and large infrastructure projects. Indonesia has continued to bolster its international status through ASEAN, even if its position is one among equals. Within the organization, Jakarta has aimed to play the role of democracy promoter and bridge-builder. While China’s influence in the country has grown, Indonesia has sought a middle ground within the great-power competition, also pursuing partnerships with European countries, Japan, Russia, and the Gulf countries in order to diversify its political and economic relations. This offers opportunities for the EU. However, Europe’s declining image in Indonesia, colonial history and perceived double standards are obstacles to strengthening EU-Indonesia relations. Challenges remain for Indonesia in its quest to become a global player. The country will need to contribute solutions to both regional and global issues, and its hedging game and strategic autonomy in foreign-policy choices may become complicated due to increasing global expectations and responsibilities.
Topic:
Democracy, Geopolitics, Economic Policy, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

2. Southeast Asian democracy: Democratic regression or autocratic hardening?

Author:
Bart Gaens and Olli Ruohomäki
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
In line with a global trend, Southeast Asia faces an overall decline in levels of democracy, raising the question of whether democratic progress in the region has reached its limits. Most member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have not seen a “wave of democratization” after a long period of authoritarianism and suppression. Instead, the region has been characterized by remarkably resilient “flawed” democracies and relatively stable autocratic regimes, in some cases in spite of strong economic growth and social development. Democracy, or rather autocracy with some democratic elements, has been ebbing and flowing. Most Southeast Asian flawed democracies and autocracies alike are engaged in the politics of hedging, seeking cooperation with multiple partners. These include authoritarian China, which is not interested in the political systems of the countries it deals with, but also the US, the EU and Japan. Pragmatism is inherent in the way ASEAN polities are managed. As long as living conditions improve or at least remain stable, there is little appetite for Western-style democracy that places participatory politics and human rights at the centre of societal development.
Topic:
Governance, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

3. Myanmar’s Generals Recoup: The recurrence of military-defined “disciplined democracy”

Author:
Bart Gaens
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Myanmar’s generals cited election fraud as the motive behind their coup. However, as the country’s transition during the past decade has been rooted in military-orchestrated “disciplined democracy”, the real drivers behind the coup are likely different.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, Coup, and Military Government
Political Geography:
Asia, Burma, and Myanmar

4. The Geostrategic Interests of External Actors in Myanmar: A Struggle for Influence in a Country in Turmoil

Author:
Bart Gaens and Olli Ruohomäki
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Countries with geostrategic stakes in Myanmar have reacted in different ways to the military coup of 1 February 2021 and its aftermath, which have resulted in over 750 casualties thus far. China benefits from stability in Myanmar but, given its vast geoeconomic and geopolitical interests as Myanmar is a vital part of the BRI, will not criticize the military. Thailand, itself a military-dominated pseudo-democracy, is certainly reluctant to exert pressure. India focuses on its own national interest and prioritizes the partnership with its strategically important neighbour. Japan applies quiet diplomacy and aims to function as mediator, while at the same time protecting its business interests. The EU and US have sanctions in place, but history shows these do not have much effect on the junta. Russia’s presence is not significant, but Moscow uses arms sales to establish a foothold in the Indo-Pacific. ASEAN aims to mediate with Indonesia in the lead, and even achieved a broad consensus on the situation in Myanmar, but likely remains too divided to deliver lasting change on the ground. Given the divergent geostrategic interests of external actors in Myanmar, a concerted effort to achieve change in the country is unlikely. Hence, sustained change has to come from within the country.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Coup, Military Government, Strategic Interests, and Influence
Political Geography:
Asia, Burma, and Myanmar