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1. World Trade 1970-2010: Globalisation, Regionalisation and Reallocation

Author:
Arne Melchior
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Using data for more than 200 countries, split into nine regions, we study world trade in goods during 1970-2010. The largest changes are the declining relative importance of Western Europe, and the increasing role for Asia. The intra-regional trade of Asia grew particularly fast; from 4 to 16% of world trade. Due to growing intra-regional trade in Europe and Asia, world trade became more intra-regional until 1995. Manufacturing trade is more regionalised, whereas commodity trade is more globalised. After 1995, extra-regional trade flows grew faster so there was “globalisation” with trade travelling longer distances and a rising share for commodities. From 2000, smaller trade regions such as Africa and Latin America have increased their shares of world trade; reversing the trend over the 30 preceding years.
Topic:
Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Regional Cooperation, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and Western Europe

2. Globalisation, Domestic Market Integration, and the Regional Disparities of India

Author:
Arne Melchior
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Using a world trade model with India subdivided into states, the paper examines how regional disparities are affected by domestic inter-state trade as well as international trade. According to the analysis, international liberalisation promotes decentralisation and convergence, not divergence, so trade is not to blame for India's growing regional disparities. High economic growth within India makes domestic markets more important and the geographical effect of this is opposite to that of globalisation. This may counterbalance the geographical impact of international liberalisation and explain why recent changes in geographical clustering in India are limited. The empirical results are consistent with this. They also indicate that Indian services expansion is largely driven by increases in domestic demand due to growth, and that domestic market integration is essential for India's manufacturing sector. We argue that for larger nations, the domestic inter-regional trade is important and India should have a trade policy that addresses domestic as well as international market integration.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

3. A Global Race for Free Trade Agreements

Author:
Arne Melchior
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The article examines the currently expanding worldwide network of bilateral free trade agreements. Following regional integration in Europe and later the Americas, the process if East Asia has accelerated from 2002. A Distinctive feature of the current stage in the expansion of FTAs beyond geographical regions and into global space, hence challenging WTOs supremacy on inter-continental trade rules. Setbacks in the WTO Doha Round may stimulate a further move towards «global bilateralism». The more such agreements in place, the greater is the incentive for new ones. Even if political obstacles hinder some agreements, the process is currently accelerating. While it is rational for countries to pursue such agreements, they should in parallel work for multilateral trade liberalisation in order to reduce the discriminatory impact of FTAs. This is needed if we are to avoid that «Most Favoured Nation» treatment under the WTO actually becomes «Least Favoured Nation» treatment: Rules that only apply to countries that are left outside the «free trade race».
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
America, Europe, and East Asia

4. Globalisation and industrial location: The impact of trade policy when geography matters

Author:
Arne Melchior
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The paper shows how industrial location and welfare depends on “most-favoured nation” (MFN) versus distance-related trade barriers, using a monopolistic competition model with regions located along a “Hotelling” line or on a square plain. Manufacturing production will cluster close to the periphery if transport costs are relatively high, but in central areas if MFN barriers are relatively high. The peripheries will be at a disadvantage, which increases when trade barriers are reduced. When countries or trading blocs are formed, a core-periphery pattern emerges within each of them. While lower transport costs create more centralisation within countries, lower MFN barriers between countries have the opposite effect.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance