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Begin New Search Topic Economic Policy Author Arkady Moshes

1. Ukraine’s political model recast: Assessing new opportunities and risks

Author:
Arkady Moshes and Ryhor Nizhnikau
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The Ukrainian political model is in flux. The war against Russia has eroded the core elements of the old order, in which elections were a focal point of the political contestation and the main mechanism for resolving political conflicts. Oligarchs have lost their critical role in Ukrainian politics. Their impact on the media and the party system has weakened considerably, which is a very positive development for the country’s democratic progress. At the same time, the disappearance of the oligarchs as a quasi-institution facilitates the process of power concentration around President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his Office. Given the absence of elections due to martial law, this poses the risk that the new political model might be tailored to the incumbent’s needs to the detriment of the public interest. As the war becomes protracted, societal pressure to reactivate comprehensive reforms in the country, including the fight against corruption, is increasing. This creates certain tensions between the national leaders and the general public. Ostensibly, the incumbent president cannot and will not be able to ignore this demand, especially if it is firmly and consistently supported by Western actors.
Topic:
Democracy, Oligarchy, Domestic Politics, Economic Policy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

2. The Eurasian Economic Union: Breaking the pattern of post-Soviet integration?

Author:
Sean Roberts, Anaïs Marin, Arkady Moshes, and Katri Pynnöniemi
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The Eurasian Economic Union between Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia consolidates a market of 170 million people with a combined GDP of almost 3 trillion US dollars. On paper, this union has the potential to transform economic relations in the region and to offer an alternative to the EU in the post-Soviet space. The Union, which comes into effect from January 2015, marks the latest achievement in the current ‘intensive phase’ of integration, which has seen the creation of a Eurasian Customs Union (2010), a Single Economic Space (2012) and a Eurasian Economic Commission (2012), all intended to facilitate the four economic freedoms – the free movement of goods, people, services and capital. Expanding the Union is also seen as a priority, with Armenia set to join the Customs Union and Kyrgyzstan already at an advanced stage of negotiation. However, despite early successes, further deepening and widening of the Union are fraught with difficulties and the pace of integration will inevitably slow, as member states come to terms with the commitments they have made. Plans to deepen the Union have encountered a number of implementation issues leading to multi-speed integration from the outset. Likewise, plans to expand the Union have revealed a creeping politicisation that threatens to undermine the ‘economic only’ nature of this integration project. More importantly, the latest phase of post-Soviet integration shows strong signs that the older problems of weak institutions and large asymmetry between member states are continuing to hinder closer ties. Taken together, and against the backdrop of an increasingly hostile international environment that has accompanied the crisis in Ukraine, the Eurasian Economic Union faces an uphill struggle to maintain momentum and deliver the results member states desire.
Topic:
European Union, Multilateralism, Economic Policy, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:
Russia and Eastern Europe