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1. The Path of Least Resilience: Autocratic Rule and External Powers in the Middle East

Author:
Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The examples of Egypt and Saudi Arabia show the risks in betting on the stability of autocratic regimes in the region. Despite the Arab uprisings of the last decade, most countries in the Middle East remain in the grip of autocrats, with a widespread view that this is the 'default setting' for the region. However, an examination of Egypt and Saudi Arabia, where authoritarianism has been revived, reveals both regimes are struggling for popular legitimacy. Increasingly reliant on repression, these regimes risk provoking civil unrest, and external powers should reconsider their assumption that autocracy guarantees stability in the Middle East.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, Authoritarianism, Political stability, and Legitimacy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Australia, and Egypt

2. Football Diplomacy Redux: The 2015 Asian Cup and Australia’s Engagement with Asia

Author:
Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
In 2015 Australia will host the Asian Football Confederation’s Asian Cup, providing opportunities for government, business and community groups to strengthen their engagement with Asia.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Australia

3. Obama's surge: The United States, Australia and the Second War for Afghanistan

Author:
Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
President Obama's announcement of a troop surge and the planned withdrawal of the Netherlands as lead nation in Oruzgan province in mid-2010, where the bulk of Australia's military contribution operates, raise a number of issues for Australia's role in Afghanistan. In particular: the potential and perhaps unintended impact of any new lead nation on the relative improvements in security that have been achieved in Oruzgan province a possible demand for more Australian troops and greater flexibility in the way they are used in Afghanistan as the result of changes in US strategy; and the effectiveness of Australia's small but growing number of civilian and police personnel in Afghanistan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Australia

4. So what? Matching policy to Australian interests in West Asia

Author:
Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Before 2001, Australian policy in the region defined here as West Asia – that stretching from India's western borders across to the eastern shores of the Mediterranean, encompassing Southwest Asia, the Persian Gulf and the Levant – focused on two broad objectives: supporting American-led efforts to promote regional stability, and securing opportunities for Australian exports.
Topic:
International Relations, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Asia and Australia

5. Reinventing 'West Asia': How the 'Middle east' and 'South Asia' Fit into Australia's Strategic Picture

Author:
Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Australia's economic, political and strategic interests in the Middle East and South Asia are growing and policymakers are gradually reassessing the place of these regions in Australia's overall strategic calculus. There is a risk, however, that in this reassessment, the two regions will continue to be viewed distinctly - a distinction that is increasingly artificial in strategic terms.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Middle East, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

6. Fuelling confrontation: Iran, the US and the oil weapon

Author:
Anthony Bubalo, Mark P Thirlwell, and Dr. Michael Fullilove
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The Iranian nuclear issue has entered a critical phase. A draft UN Security Council resolution has been circulated that could pave the way for political and economic sanctions. Should these fail to change Iran's position, the likelihood of military action will grow towards the end of 2006 and into 2007. At the same time, high oil prices have bolstered Iran's ability to defy demands that it give up uranium enrichment and provide greater transparency with respect to its nuclear program. Given current supply, demand and price indicators, oil provides Iran with a very potent weapon with which to respond to punitive measures. However, the economic and political fallout produced by the use of the oil in this way makes it likely Tehran would use such a weapon cautiously.
Topic:
International Relations, Energy Policy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, and Australia/Pacific

7. New rules for a new 'Great Game'

Author:
Anthony Bubalo and Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Strongly growing demand for oil, the sharp run up in prices since mid-2003 and tight supply, have seen energy insecurity return to the international policy agenda. Fears have been raised that China's emergence as a voracious consumer of oil and gas and a keen competitor in global energy markets might imperil the largely cordial relationship that has developed between Beijing and Washington over the last decade. There is also a risk that the competition for energy resources could feed into the less than cordial relations between China and Japan. The purpose of this Policy Brief is to examine the risks that the competition for oil resources might pose for international security, focusing in particular on the relationships between the United States, Middle East oil producers and major Northeast Asian energy consumers, and to propose a mechanism for defusing some of the risks that this competition could entail.
Topic:
Energy Policy, International Organization, International Political Economy, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, and Middle East

8. Football diplomacy

Author:
Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
What is the problem? While Australian governments have successfully built pragmatic ties with Asian leaders, a popular dimension to our engagement with Asia has in many respects been missing. This didn’t matter greatly in the past, but today public opinion is increasingly a factor in foreign policy. Governments must influence individuals as well as elites to address global problems such as terrorism and disease and ‘branding’ has become critical to a state’s ability to attract trade, investment and international political support. But a new opportunity to deepen people-to-people links with Asia has arrived in the form of Australia’s recent admission into the Asian Football Confederation. For the first time, Australia will have a significant sporting relationship with Asia. The question is, how can Australia best use this opportunity to enhance its regional image and engagement?
Topic:
Diplomacy and Government
Political Geography:
Asia and Australia/Pacific

9. Iran, the international community and the nuclear issue: where to next?

Author:
Anthony Bubalo and Dr. Michael Fullilove
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The international impasse over Iran\'s nuclear program is entering a critical phase. The compromise being offered by the international community, whereby Iran would carry out sensitive uranium enrichment work in Russia, is unlikely to be accepted in full by Tehran. The hardline rhetoric of new President Ahmedinejad is further limiting the prospects of a diplomatic solution being found. As a result, the issue is likely to come before the Security Council. Once in New York there are a number of ways it could play out. But at this stage it is not clear what the Council would be able to do to force a change of behaviour from Tehran. Faced with poor options all round, Washington may feel at some point that it has to risk the uncertain results of limited air strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities to delay what it regards as the unthinkable - a nuclear armed Iran.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Washington, and Middle East

10. Building a democratic Palestine: an Australian contribution to legal and institutional development in the Palestinian territories

Author:
Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The current fragile ceasefire between Palestinian militants and Israel has raised hopes of an end to four years of violence. To sustain that ceasefire both Israel and the Palestinian Authority must meet their respective commitments under the "Road Map for Middle bast Peace". For the PA this means preventing terrorist attacks against Israel and undertaking political, legal and security reforms. These reforms are also critical to meeting the Palestinian public's own demands for an end to lawlessness and corruption. Given Australia's expertise in legal and institutional development, the Australian government's commitment to promoting democracy and peace in the Middle bast and its sound relationship with both the PA and the government of Israel, Australia should lend what support it can to the Palestinian effort to establish strong foundations for a stable, prosperous and democratic Palestinian state.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Development
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Australia