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2. Fuelling confrontation: Iran, the US and the oil weapon
- Author:
- Anthony Bubalo, Mark P Thirlwell, and Dr. Michael Fullilove
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The Iranian nuclear issue has entered a critical phase. A draft UN Security Council resolution has been circulated that could pave the way for political and economic sanctions. Should these fail to change Iran's position, the likelihood of military action will grow towards the end of 2006 and into 2007. At the same time, high oil prices have bolstered Iran's ability to defy demands that it give up uranium enrichment and provide greater transparency with respect to its nuclear program. Given current supply, demand and price indicators, oil provides Iran with a very potent weapon with which to respond to punitive measures. However, the economic and political fallout produced by the use of the oil in this way makes it likely Tehran would use such a weapon cautiously.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Energy Policy, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, and Australia/Pacific
3. Football diplomacy
- Author:
- Anthony Bubalo
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- What is the problem? While Australian governments have successfully built pragmatic ties with Asian leaders, a popular dimension to our engagement with Asia has in many respects been missing. This didn’t matter greatly in the past, but today public opinion is increasingly a factor in foreign policy. Governments must influence individuals as well as elites to address global problems such as terrorism and disease and ‘branding’ has become critical to a state’s ability to attract trade, investment and international political support. But a new opportunity to deepen people-to-people links with Asia has arrived in the form of Australia’s recent admission into the Asian Football Confederation. For the first time, Australia will have a significant sporting relationship with Asia. The question is, how can Australia best use this opportunity to enhance its regional image and engagement?
- Topic:
- Diplomacy and Government
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Australia/Pacific
4. Israel's withdrawal from Gaza: a role for Australia?
- Author:
- Anthony Bubalo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Despite its defeat in a Likud Party referendum on 2 May, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's proposal for a unilateral withdrawal from settlements and military positions in the Gaza Strip remains very much on the Israeli national agenda. For Sharon a withdrawal would help shorten Israel's security lines, block any alternate diplomatic initiatives being forced on Israel and win important policy changes in US positions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Indeed despite Palestinian suspicions about the proposal, an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza could, if executed in an orderly and coordinated fashion, ultimately help reinvigorate a moribund peace process. There remain, however, a number of questions surrounding the plan, not least of which is whom Israel would coordinate any pull-out with, and who or what would fill any political and security vacuum left by Israel's withdrawal. Solving both sets of problems is likely to require some form of international intervention. If this occurs Australia would probably find itself on a short list of countries who would both be capable of contributing to such a sensitive and complex mission and whose membership of such a force would be acceptable to Israel, the Palestinians and the United States.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Australia/Pacific