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2. How Has the Developing World Changed since the Late 1990s? A Dynamic and Multidimensional Taxonomy of Developing Countries
- Author:
- Andy Sumner and Sergio Tezanos Vázquez
- Publication Date:
- 08-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Many existing classifications of developing countries are dominated by income per capita (such as the World Bank's low, middle, and high income thresholds), thus neglecting the multidimensionality of the concept of 'development'. Even those deemed to be the main 'alternatives' to the income-based classification have income per capita heavily weighted within a composite indicator. This paper provides an alternative perspective: clusters of developing countries. We take 4 'frames' on the meaning of development: economic development, human development, better governance, and environmental sustainability. We then use a cluster procedure in order to build groups of countries that are to some extent internally 'homogeneous', but noticeably dissimilar to other groups. The advantage of this procedure is that it allows us identify the key development characteristics of each cluster of countries and where each country fits best. We then use this taxonomy to analyze how the developing world has changed since the late 1990s in terms of clusters of countries and the country groupings themselves.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Governance, and Reform
3. The Geography of Inequality: Where and by How Much Has Income Distribution Changed since 1990?
- Author:
- Andy Sumner and Peter Edward
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The interplay of between-and within-country inequality, the relative contribution of each to overall global inequality, and the implications this has for who benefits from recent global growth (and by how much), has become a significant avenue for economic research. However, drawing conclusions from the commonly used aggregate inequality indices such as the Gini and Theil makes it difficult to take a nuanced view of how global growth interacts with changing national and international inequality.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Development, Economics, and Globalization
4. Where Will the World's Poor Live? An Update on Global Poverty and the New Bottom Billion
- Author:
- Andy Sumner
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- This paper updates the distribution of global poverty data and makes projections up to 2020. The paper asks the following question: Do the world's extreme poor live in poor countries? It is argued that many of the world's extreme poor already live in countries where the total cost of ending extreme poverty is not prohibitively high as a percentage of GDP. And in the not-too-distant future, most of the world's poor will live in countries that do have the domestic financial scope to end at least extreme poverty. This would imply a reframing of global poverty as largely a matter of domestic distribution.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Poverty
5. The Buoyant Billions: How "Middle Class" Are the New Middle Classes in Developing Countries? (And Why Does It Matter?)
- Author:
- Andy Sumner
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Middle-income countries (MICs) are now home to most of the world's extreme poor—the billion people living on less than $1.25 a day and a further billion people living on between $1.25 and $2. At the same time, many MICs are also home to a drastically expanding emerging middle or nonpolar group, called here the “buoyant billions.” This group includes those (mostly in MICs) living on between $2 and $4 a day and another billion people (also mostly in MICs) between $4 and $10 a day. Although they are above the average poverty line for developing countries, many people in these new “middle classes” may be insecure and at risk of falling into poverty. This paper outlines indicative data on trends relating to poverty and the nonpoor by different expenditure groups, and critically reviews the recent literature that contentiously labels such groups as “middle class.” The paper argues that such groups are neither extremely poor nor secure from poverty and that such groups are worthy of closer examination because their expansion may potentially have wider societal implications related, for example, to taxation, governance, and—ultimately—domestic politics.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and Poverty
6. Global Health and the New Bottom Billion: How Funders Should Respond to Shifts in Global Poverty and Disease Burden
- Author:
- Amanda Glassman, Andy Sumner, and Denizhan Duran
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- After a decade of rapid economic growth, many developing countries have attained middle-income status. But poverty reduction in these countries has not kept pace with economic growth. As a result, most of the world's poor—up to a billion people—now live in these new middle-income countries (MICs), making up a “new bottom billion.” As the new MICs are home to most of the world's poor, they also carry the majority of the global disease burden. This poses a challenge to global health agencies, in particular the GAVI Alliance and the Global Fund, which are accustomed to disbursing funds on the assumption that the majority of poor people live in poor countries.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Health, and Poverty
7. MDGs 2.0: What Goals, Targets, and Timeframe?
- Author:
- Charles Kenny, Andy Sumner, and Jonathan Karver
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) are widely cited as the primary yardstick against which advances in international development efforts are to be judged. At the same time, the Goals will be met or missed by 2015. It is not too early to start asking 'what next?' This paper builds on a discussion that has already begun to address potential approaches, goals and target indicators to help inform the process of developing a second generation of MDGs or 'MDGs 2.0.' The paper outlines potential goal areas based on the original Millennium Declaration, the timeframe for any MDGs 2.0 and attempts to calculate some reasonable targets associated with those goal areas.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Post Colonialism, and Political Theory
8. Global Health and the New Bottom Billion: What Do Shifts in Global Poverty and the Global Disease Burden Mean for GAVI and the Global Fund?
- Author:
- Amanda Glassman, Andy Sumner, and Denizhan Duran
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- After a decade of rapid growth in average incomes, many countries have attained middle-income country (MIC) status. At the same time, the total number of poor people hasn't fallen as much as one might expect and, as a result, most of the world's poor now live in MICs. In fact, there are up to a billion poor people or a 'new bottom billion' living not in the world's poorest countries but in MICs. Not only has the global distribution of poverty shifted to MICs, so has the global disease burden. This paper examines the implications of this 'new bottom billion' for global health efforts and recommends a tailored middle-income strategy for the Global Fund and GAVI. The paper describes trends in the global distribution of poverty, preventable infectious diseases, and health aid response to date; revisits the rationale for health aid through agencies like GAVI and the Global Fund; and proposes a new MIC strategy and components, concluding with recommendations.
- Topic:
- Development, Globalization, Health, and Poverty
9. More Money or More Development: What Have the MDGs Achieved?
- Author:
- Charles Kenny and Andy Sumner
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- What have the MDGs achieved? And what might their achievements mean for any second generation of MDGs or MDGs 2.0? We argue that the MDGs may have played a role in increasing aid and that development policies beyond aid quantity have seen some limited improvement in rich countries (the evidence on policy change in poor countries is weaker). Further, there is some evidence of faster-than-expected progress improving quality of life in developing countries since the Millennium Declaration, but the contribution of the MDGs themselves in speeding that progress is—of course—difficult to demonstrate even assuming the MDGs induced policy changes after 2002. The paper concludes with reflections on what the experience of MDGs in terms of global goal setting has taught us and how things might be done differently if there were to be a new set of MDGs after 2015. Any MDGs 2.0 need targets that are set realistically and directly link aid flows to social policy change and to results.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, and Foreign Aid
10. The New Bottom Billion: What If Most of the World's Poor Live in Middle-Income Countries?
- Author:
- Andy Sumner
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Most of the world's poor no longer live in low-income countries. An estimated 960 million poor people—a new bottom billion—live in middle-income countries, a result of the graduation of several populous countries from low-income status. That is good news, but it has repercussions. Donors will have to change the way they think about poverty alleviation. They should design development aid to benefit poor people, not just poor countries, keep supporting middle-income countries, think beyond traditional aid to craft coherent development policies, and work to help create space for more inclusive policy processes in new and old MICs.
- Topic:
- Development, Poverty, and Foreign Aid