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1. The Effect of Civilian Casualties on Wartime Informing: Evidence from the Iraq War

Author:
Andrew Shaver and Jacob N. Shapiro
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
Scholars of civil war and insurgency have long posited that insurgent organizations and their state enemies incur costs for the collateral damage they cause. We provide the first direct quantitative evidence that wartime informing is affected by civilian casualties. Using newly declassified data on tip flow to Coalition forces in Iraq we find that information flow goes down after government forces inadvertently kill civilians and it goes up when insurgents do so. These results have strong policy implications; confirm a relationship long posited in the theoretical literature on insurgency; and are consistent with a broad range of circumstantial evidence on the topic.
Topic:
War, Insurgency, Counterinsurgency, Information Age, Civilians, and Casualties
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

2. Employment Status and Support for Wartime Violence: Evidence from the Iraq War

Author:
Andrew Shaver
Publication Date:
05-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
The unemployed are often inculpated in the production of violence during conflict. A simple yet common argument describes these individuals as disaffected and inclined to perpetrate affectively motivated violence. A second holds that they are drawn to violent political organizations for lack of better outside options. Yet, evidence in support of a general positive relationship between unemployment and violence during conflict is not established. Drawing from a large body of psychological research, I argue that a basic but important relationship has been overlooked: Loss of employment, rather than rendering individuals angry, increases feelings of depression, anxiety, helplessness, and belief in the power of others. Members of this segment of society are more likely than most to reject the use of violence. Drawing on previously unreleased data from a major, multi-million dollar survey effort carried out during the Iraq war, I uncover evidence that psychological findings carry to conflict settings: unemployed Iraqis were consistently less optimistic than other citizens; displayed diminished perceptions of efficacy; and were much less likely to support the use of violence against Coalition forces.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Labor Issues, Conflict, Violence, War on Terror, and Quantitative
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

3. JOURNAL OF PUBLIC AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS 2012

Author:
Dan Fichtler and Andrew Shaver
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Woodrow Wilson School Journal of Public and International Affairs
Institution:
Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
Abstract:
The European sovereign debt crisis is surprisingly persistent in defying any solution. Germany would be a natural candidate to lead the implementation of measures to stop the crisis. However, Germany has shown only limited effort in doing so, although it benefits significantly from the Euro. Germany is often accused of weak leadership and questionable economic assumptions by the media. Instead, this paper will argue that Germany has acted rationally and benefits from a delay of the crisis. The analysis of the current situation, which is based on a game-theoretic model, offers evidence that some countries maximize their benefits by delaying the crisis. The crisis stimulates exports due to an undervalued Euro and significantly decreases interest rates for safe sovereign bonds. The delay of the crisis introduces a high risk that the monetary union will break up, even if all countries would individually prefer to keep the monetary union. This risk is created by the structure of the decision making process, which has an inherent tendency towards the delaying of a solution. A different decision making process based on majority rule would increase the likelihood that a solution to the crisis would be developed more quickly. Alternatively, concessions by countries suffering from a delay of the crisis to countries like Germany can compensate for any foregone benefits.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany