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1. Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries. Country report: Belarus

Author:
Alaksei Kazlou and Alexander Chubrik
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Labour migration does not appear to have the same magnitude and socio-economic importance in Belarus as in other EaP countries. It is one of the few post-socialist economies that have preserved the dominance of the state sector and built complicated systems of subsidisation and economic support for the population designed to manage the political-business cycle (see Chubrik, Shymanovich, Zaretsky (2012)). This model has allowed the economy to grow quite steadily until recently. However, the distorted system of incentives that was created for enterprises and households has resulted in the need for a “correction”, which happened in the form of a balance of payments crisis in 2011. The impact of this factor on migration has not been fully visible yet. At the same time the relatively long period of stability and gradual, but steady, increase in welfare payments has played a role as a migration-restraining factor. In order to estimate cost and benefits of labour migration between EU and Belarus, this study utilises publically available literature as background and relies where possible on micro-data: Census-2009, Household Budget Survey (HBS), as well as relevant official data and data from polls related to the topic. Additionally, some sections of this report rely on information collected in the course of a focus group meeting with labour migrants and a series of in-depth interviews with officials from state, international, and non-governmental agencies dealing with migration. Lastly, in some cases anecdotal evidence was collected to support some of the new trends that have not yet been recorded in the statistics.
Topic:
Migration, Labor Issues, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Belarus

2. The new old choice for economic policymakers in Belarus

Author:
Alexander Chubrik
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
In 2011, the Belarusian ruble lost nearly 2/3 of its value. In December, the inflation rate approached 110% yoy. At the same time, the economy grew by 5.3% that year and continued with 3.6% yoy growth in January 2012. Is this a sign of economic recovery? Will it turn into sustainable growth? Or has the country exited from the crisis at all? To address these questions, CASE Fellow and Director of the IPM Research Centre in Minsk Alexander Chubrik looks at the roots of the 2011 crisis and compares them with the features of the long-lasting period of economic growth in Belarus.
Topic:
Globalization, Economic Growth, Inflation, Trade, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Belarus

3. Will IMF Intervention Help Belarus Solve Its Old Problems?

Author:
Alexander Chubrik
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
On May 31, 2011 the Government and National Bank of Belarus (NBB) announced that they would ask for a new stand-by loan from the IMF. The requests for external assistance followed several unsuccessful government attempts to overcome the serious macroeconomic crisis that has been developing in the country since the beginning of 2010. A key question arises, can external loans help Belarus to overcome its current crisis?
Topic:
Reform, Finance, Institutions, Macroeconomics, and IMF
Political Geography:
Europe, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Belarus