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2. The Fiscal Impact of Immigration in the United States
- Author:
- Alex Nowrasteh, Sarah Eckhardt, and Michael Howard
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The National Research Council and the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) published groundbreaking investigations into the economics of immigration in 1997 and 2017. Both publications contained thorough literature surveys compiled by experts, academics, and think tank scholars on how immigration affects many aspects of the U.S. economy. The 2017 NAS report included an original fiscal impact model as a unique contribution to immigration scholarship. Its findings have been used by policymakers, economists, journalists, and others to debate immigration reform. Here, we acquired the exact methods used by the NAS from its authors to replicate, update, and expand upon the 2017 fiscal impact model published in the NAS’s The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration. This paper presents two analyses: a measure of the historical fiscal impacts of immigrants from 1994 to 2018 and the projected long‐term fiscal impact of an additional immigrant and that immigrant’s descendants. An individual’s fiscal impact refers to the difference between the taxes that person paid and the benefits that person received over a given period. We use and compare two models for these analyses: the first follows the NAS’s methodology as closely as possible and updates the data for more recent years (hereafter referred to as the Updated Model), and the second makes several methodological changes that we believe improve the accuracy of the final results (hereafter referred to as the Cato Model). The most substantial changes made in the Cato Model include correcting for a downward bias in the estimation of immigrants’ future fiscal contributions identified by Michael Clemens in 2021, allocating the fiscal impact of U.S.-born dependents of immigrants to the second generation group, and using a predictive regression to assign future education levels to individuals who are too young to have completed their education. Other minor changes are discussed in later sections. Immigrants have a more positive net fiscal impact than that of native‐born Americans in most scenarios in the Updated Model and in every scenario in the Cato Model, depending on how the costs of public goods are allocated. The Cato Model finds that immigrant individuals who arrive at age 25 and who are high school dropouts have a net fiscal impact of +$216,000 in net present value terms, which does not include their descendants. Including the fiscal impact of those immigrants’ descendants reduces those immigrants’ net fiscal impact to +$57,000. By comparison, native‐born American high school dropouts of the same age have a net fiscal impact of −$32,000 that drops to −$177,000 when their descendants are included (see Table 31). Results also differ by level of government. State and local governments often incur a less positive or even negative net fiscal impact from immigration, whereas the federal government almost always sees revenues rise above expenditures in response to immigration. With some variation and exceptions, the net fiscal impact of immigrants is more positive than it is for native‐born Americans and positive overall for the federal and state/local governments.
- Topic:
- Immigration, History, and Fiscal Policy
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
3. Terrorism and Immigration; A Risk Analysis, 1975–2022
- Author:
- Alex Nowrasteh
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Terrorism is a hazard to human life and material prosperity that should be addressed in a sensible manner whereby the benefits of actions taken to contain it outweigh the costs. A total of 219 foreign-born terrorists were responsible for 3,046 murders on U.S. soil from 1975 through the end of 2022. The chance of a person perishing in a terrorist attack committed by a foreigner on U.S. soil over the 48-year period studied here is 1 in 4.3 million per year. The hazard posed by foreigners who entered on different visa categories varies considerably. For instance, the annual chance of an American being murdered in a terrorist attack by a refugee is about 1 in 3.3 billion, while the annual chance of being murdered in an attack committed by an illegal immigrant is zero. Looking at this spectrum of risk, any government response to terrorism must consider the wide range of hazards posed by foreign-born terrorists who entered under various visa categories. There were 219 foreign-born terrorists who planned, attempted, or carried out attacks on U.S. soil from 1975 through 2022. Of those, 67 percent were Islamists, 16 percent were foreign nationalists, 6 percent were right-wing extremists, 5 percent were non-Islamic religious terrorists, 4 percent were left-wing extremists, and the rest were separatists, adherents of other or unknown ideologies, or targeted worshippers of specific religions.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Immigration, and Cost-Benefit Analysis
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
4. Espionage, Espionage‐Related Crimes, and Immigration: A Risk Analysis, 1990–2019
- Author:
- Alex Nowrasteh
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- A cost‐benefit analysis finds that the hazards posed by foreign‐born spies are not large enough to warrant broad and costly actions such as a ban on travel and immigration from China, but they do warrant the continued exclusion of potential spies under current laws. Espionage poses a threat to national security and the private property rights of Americans. The government should address the threat of espionage in a manner whereby the benefits of government actions taken to reduce it outweigh the costs of those actions. To aid in that goal, this policy analysis presents the first combined database of all identified spies who targeted both the U.S. government and private organizations on U.S. soil. This analysis identifies 1,485 spies on American soil who, from 1990 through the end of 2019, conducted state or commercial espionage. Of those, 890 were foreign‐born, 583 were native‐born Americans, and 12 had unknown origins. The scale and scope of espionage have major implications for immigration policy, as a disproportionate number of the identified spies were foreign‐born. Native‐born Americans accounted for 39.3 percent of all spies, foreign‐born spies accounted for 59.9 percent, and spies of unknown origins accounted for 0.8 percent. Spies who were born in China, Mexico, Iran, Taiwan, and Russia account for 34.7 percent of all spies. The chance that a native‐born American committed espionage or an espionage‐related crime and was identified was about 1 in 13.1 million per year from 1990 to 2019. The annual chance that a foreign‐born person in the United States committed an espionage‐related crime and was discovered doing so was about 1 in 2.2 million during that time. The government was the victim in 83.3 percent of espionage cases, firms were the victims of commercial espionage in 16.3 percent of the cases, and hospitals and universities were the victims of espionage in 0.1 percent and 0.3 percent of the cases, respectively. The federal government should continue to exclude foreign‐born individuals from entering the United States if they pose a threat to the national security and private property rights of Americans through espionage. A cost‐benefit analysis finds that the hazards posed by foreign‐born spies are not large enough to warrant broad and costly actions such as a ban on travel and immigration from China, but they do warrant the continued exclusion of potential spies under current laws.
- Topic:
- Crime, Immigration, Risk, and Espionage
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5. A Brief History of U.S. Immigration Policy from the Colonial Period to the Present Day
- Author:
- Andrew M. Baxter and Alex Nowrasteh
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- More than 86 million people have legally immigrated to the United States between 1783 and 2019. The legal regime under which they immigrated has changed radically over that time; the politics surrounding those changes have remained contentious, and past immigration policies inform the current political debate. Conflicting visions and piecemeal legislation have left the United States with an archaic and barely coherent immigration system with outdated policy objectives that is primarily controlled by the executive branch of government. We review the history of U.S. immigration policy, including the legal controversies that empowered Congress with its immigration plenary power and the historical policy decisions that still guide the U.S. immigration system, in order to contextualize the current political debate over immigration at the beginning of the Biden administration.
- Topic:
- Government, History, Immigration, and Immigration Policy
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
6. Illegal Immigration and Crime in Texas
- Author:
- Alex Nowrasteh, Andrew C. Forrester, and Michelangelo Landgrave
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Donald J. Trump launched his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination in June 2015 by comments on illegal immigrants and the crime they commit in the United States. “When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. They’re not sending you. They’re not sending you,” he said. “They’re sending people that have lots of problems and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs, they’re bringing crime, they’re rapists, and some, I assume, are good people.” A few weeks after Trump’s announcement, 32‐year‐old Kate Steinle was shot and killed by an illegal immigrant Jose Inez Garcıa Zarate in San Francisco, California. Although Zarate was later acquitted of all murder and manslaughter charges due to mistakes made by the prosecutor, his shooting of Steinle seemed to support Trump’s worry about illegal immigrants causing a crime spree and helped win him the election in 2016.
- Topic:
- Crime, Immigration, and Border Control
- Political Geography:
- North America, Texas, and United States of America
7. Immigrants Do Not Negatively Affect the Economic Institutions of American States
- Author:
- Alex Nowrasteh and Andrew C. Forrester
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Freer immigration could potentially lead to trillions of dollars in additional annual global output. However, the movement of many more immigrants could produce negative externalities that swamp the benefits, particularly if immigrants undermine productivity in their new countries by bringing with them the institutions or cultures that are responsible for low productivity in their home countries. We examine this by seeing how immigrants affect state budgets — a proxy for the quality of economic institutions — between 1970 and 2010 in the United States. We find that larger immigrant shares of the population produce large reductions in the growth of real per capita tax revenue and outlays in the short run that moderate to smaller longer‐term growth declines in both.
- Topic:
- Immigration, Economy, Immigrants, Tax Systems, Institutions, and Revenue Management
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
8. Full Issue: Money & War
- Author:
- Sarah Detzner, James Copnall, Alex de Waal, Ian M. Ralby, Joshua Stanton, Ibrahim Warde, Leon Whyte, Richard Weitz, Jessica Knight, John H. Maurer, Alexander Tabarrok, Alex Nowrasteh, Tom Keatinge, Emily Knowles, Karolina MacLachlan, Andrew Lebovich, Caroline Troein, and Anne Moulakis
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- The Fletcher Security Review: Managed and edited by students at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, we build on the Fletcher School’s strong traditions of combining scholarship with practice, fostering close interdisciplinary collaboration, and acting as a vehicle for groundbreaking discussion of international security. We believe that by leveraging these strengths – seeking input from established and up-and-coming scholars, practitioners, and analysts from around the world on topics deserving of greater attention – we can promote genuinely unique ways of looking at the future of security. Each issue of the Review is centered around a broad theme – in this issue, we tackle “Money & War.” Money influences every aspect of warfare, conventional or unconventional. No nationstate military, insurgent group, terrorist network, trans-national criminal organization, or hybrid actor can be understood, or countered, without knowing where the money is coming from – as well as where, and how, it gets spent. Evolutions and revolutions in financial tools and practices quickly translate to transformations in military affairs, and some cases, vice versa.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Human Rights, Governance, Sanctions, Military Affairs, Finance, Islamic State, Navy, Arab Spring, Maritime, Conflict, Multilateralism, Islamism, Drugs, and Currency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Africa, China, Iran, Sudan, Darfur, Middle East, Asia, North Korea, Mali, Asia-Pacific, Sahel, United States of America, and North America