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1. Full Employment: A Survey of Theory, Empirics and Policies

Author:
Aleksandr Arsenev, Meryem Gökten, Philipp Heimberger, and Andreas Lichtenberger
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
The concept of full employment is associated with diverse economic, political and social aspects. We provide a survey of theory, empirics and policy issues related to full employment. We make a novel contribution by tying together multi-dimensional aspects of full employment regarding definitions, theoretical perspectives, empirical measurements, policy debates and real-world policy programs. We distinguish: concepts of full employment that provide systematic links to price stability; minimum unemployment and maximum employment approaches; and the unfilled vacancies perspective. Furthermore, we provide and discuss different empirical measures of full employment for selected economies, and we propose a new full employment typology. Based on our survey findings, we argue that conceptualising and measuring full employment is not merely a technical task, but inevitably involves normative judgments. Finally, we discuss avenues for future research.
Topic:
Labor Issues, European Union, Employment, Macroeconomics, OECD, Welfare State, and Jobs
Political Geography:
Europe

2. Gender and Education Gaps in Employment: New Evidence for the EU

Author:
Aleksandr Arsenev, Meryem Gökten, Philipp Heimberger, Andreas Lichtenberger, and Torben Schütz
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper analyses (age-adjusted) employment rates by gender and education. We find that male female gender gaps and high-low education gaps in employment vary markedly across European Union (EU) countries and regions, with larger gaps existing in Eastern and Southern Europe than in Nordic and Continental EU countries. We estimate that closing existing education gaps in employment between high and lower education levels would raise the employment rate in the EU for the year 2022 by 10.6 percentage points, whereas closing the gender gaps between men and women would lead to an increase of 2.5 percentage points. At the same time, closing both the gender and education gaps would raise the EU employment rate from 76% to 89% of the population. Furthermore, we provide new evidence on the cyclical behaviour of employment gaps, finding that gender gaps are procyclical. While female employment rates tend to be more resilient than male employment rates during economic downturns, male employment rates tend to grow at a faster pace than female employment rates during upswings. In contrast, education gaps are more countercyclical, as employment risks are more strongly concentrated where education is low.
Topic:
Education, Labor Issues, European Union, Employment, Inequality, Macroeconomics, Unemployment, Gender, and Income Distribution
Political Geography:
Europe

3. The Emissions Reduction Potential for Freight Transport on a High-speed Rail Line Along the ‘European Silk Road’

Author:
Erica Angers, Aleksandr Arsenev, and Mario Holzner
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This report estimates the CO2 emissions of freight transport on a hypothetical high-speed rail (HSR) line along the northern route, from Lyon to Warsaw, of a ‘European Silk Road’ (ESR). Using a methodology consisting of predictions regarding the freight-carrying capacity of the future HSR, and the commodity-level switchover, our results indicate that a best-case scenario, at a project lifecycle of 60 years, in which all trains run with 257 tonnes of load, provides for a reduction of 176.2 Mt of net CO2 emissions compared with current levels. These lifespan savings are comparable to a reduction of net emissions by close to 24% of the overall EU transport sector emissions (excluding air transport) of one year (as measured by the net emissions in 2018). The net negative emissions in the optimistic full-capacity scenario will compensate for the construction costs in 13 years. Thus, the potential for emission reduction along the northern route of the ESR is quite substantial, given that this is just one line, with limited capacity. This hints at the importance that bold missions, such as the construction of a pan-European HSR network, could have for the definition of a European Green Industrial Policy that is capable of supporting the fulfilment of the goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change.
Topic:
Climate Change, Infrastructure, European Union, Economic Growth, Transportation, Logistics, Ecology, and Green Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

4. The Cyclical Behaviour of Government Spending for Social Protection: Is the OECD Methodology Robust?

Author:
Aleksandr Arsenev, Philipp Heimberger, and Torben Schütz
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Spending elasticities measure the reaction of different government spending components to the business cycle. They are important inputs for fiscal forecasts, and they are particularly relevant in the context of European Union (EU) fiscal rules, as elasticity estimates enter the estimation of fiscal space. This paper analyses the sensitivity of the estimation method used by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the European Commission to obtain government spending elasticities by focusing on 11 EU countries in the 1995-2020 period. Our results suggest that spending elasticities are sensitive to small variations in data and model specification. For most EU countries, we reject the assumption that only unemployment spending responds to cyclical variations. While unemployment spending is indeed a major driver of counter-cyclical social spending, other categories of social spending also show signs of responding to the business cycle.
Topic:
Budget, European Union, Finance, Macroeconomics, Public Debt, Social Spending, Public Spending, and Fiscal Deficit
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, France, Poland, Germany, Denmark, Romania, Spain, Italy, Sweden, Austria, and Czechia